TNF Player Prop Bets: Bills vs. Patriots

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had a solid performance, going 3-3 on my six Thanksgiving prop bets. I split my two bets in the early game. In the second game of the day, the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys both were successful in shutting down the other’s rushing attacks. Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard each failed to hit the over on their rushing yards prop bets. However, I bounced back in the night game, hitting on both prop bets. Justin Jefferson was unstoppable, hitting the over on his prop bet (88.5 receiving yards) before halftime. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

For the Thursday Night Football game this week we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game.

All odds are from DraftKings.

Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

While some were worried about the superstar’s elbow injury, Allen has shown no serious issues over the past two weeks. More importantly, it hasn’t impacted his rushing ability. The former first-round pick is averaging 51 rushing yards per game this season. He has at least 42 rushing yards in all but two games this year. Furthermore, Allen has averaged 63.8 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, totaling at least 78 yards three times. Meanwhile, the Bills won’t have their franchise left tackle Dion Dawkins for this game because of an ankle injury. Therefore, Allen might be quicker to take off and run instead of standing in the pocket.

Defensively, the Patriots have played well this year. However, Bill Belichick’s unit always has trouble with mobile quarterbacks. New England has surrendered 270 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up over 80 rushing yards to the position twice this year. While those two quarterbacks were Lamar Jackson with 107 rushing yards and Justin Fields with 82 yards, the Patriots have struggled to keep Allen in the pocket in the past. The Patriots surrendered an average of 56.3 rushing yards per game in the three matchups against the superstar quarterback last year, giving up at least 64 twice. Don’t be surprised if Allen has another 60 or more yards performance against Belichick’s defense.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

New England’s passing attack has been inconsistent all year. Part of their problems is injuries, but the other part is a lack of talent at wide receiver. However, the one consistent bright spot has been Stevenson. The second-year running back has turned into a star this year. The former Oklahoma Sooner is averaging 32.6 receiving yards per game. However, he has averaged 39.2 receiving yards per game since Week 3. Furthermore, the star running back has turned into a catching machine over the past five weeks. During that span, Stevenson has averaged 6.6 receptions and 54.6 receiving yards per game, totaling 56 or more yards in all but one contest.

Unfortunately, the Bills’ defense has been inconsistent this year. At times they look like an elite unit. Other times they appear like an average defense. Buffalo has surrendered 359 receiving yards to running backs this season, giving up 32.6 yards per game to the position. However, they have struggled against pass-catching backs lately. Over the past two weeks, the Bills have surrendered 109 receiving yards to running backs, the eighth-most during that span. Furthermore, they have given up 159 receiving yards to the position over the past four weeks, the ninth-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Damien Harris likely won’t play this week, giving Stevenson a featured workload against the division rival.

Devin Singletary Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Fantasy football players have called for Singletary’s benching since he got drafted. Yet, the fourth-year running back has played well this season. He is averaging 50.2 rushing yards per game this year, slightly down from his 51.2 yards per game average from a year ago. However, the veteran has been on a two-game hot streak, rushing for at least 72 yards in back-to-back games. Unfortunately, Singletary did that against two of the worst run defenses in the NFL. In the other nine games this season, the veteran has averaged only 43.8 rushing yards per game, totaling fewer than 50 yards in 77.8% of those contests. Sadly, his matchup this week is far from ideal.

Almost every year, the Patriots have a strong defense. This year is no different. New England has surrendered only 842 rushing yards to running backs this season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. The Patriots have held running backs to under 54 rushing yards in four straight games despite facing some elite players. Last week they gave up only 42 yards on 22 rushing attempts (1.9 yards per rushing attempt) to Dalvin Cook. Furthermore, New England held Singletary to 52 rushing yards per game in their three matchups last year, including under 40 yards in both regular season contests. Expect a quiet performance from the veteran running back this week.

Mac Jones Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-115)

After a solid rookie season, the former Alabama star quarterback has struggled this year, averaging only 221 passing yards per game. However, his struggles are mostly due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 3. Jones averaged 262 passing yards per game over the first three weeks this season, throwing for 250 or more yards twice. Meanwhile, the second-year quarterback averaged only 118 passing yards per game in his first three games back from the injury. Yet, Jones has averaged 314 passing yards per game since the bye week, including a career-high 382 passing yards on Thanksgiving against the Minnesota Vikings. After struggling with an ankle injury, the young quarterback is healthy and playing well.

Meanwhile, the matchup is very friendly for Jones this week. The Bills have surrendered 1,075 passing yards to quarterbacks over the past month (268.8 yards per game), the fourth-most in the NFL during that span. Furthermore, Buffalo has given up 307 passing yards per game over the past three weeks, giving up 324 or more yards twice. Moreover, they have faced Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff during that span, allowing both quarterbacks to throw for at least 240 yards. Meanwhile, the Bills won’t have superstar pass rusher, Von Miller, for this game. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Jones has his third game this season with over 270 passing yards.

Dawson Knox Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week Knox had an appealing matchup against the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, the veteran tight end had only two targets in the game. While he caught both, Knox totaled only 17 receiving yards. However, the veteran is still averaging 32.7 receiving yards per game this season and was playing well before last week’s matchup. Over the previous two weeks, Knox averaged 5.5 receptions on 6.5 targets for 63.5 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 57 yards in both contests. Furthermore, he averaged 38.1 receiving yards per game from Week 1 until last week’s matchup with Detroit. Last week’s performance was disappointing, but bettors should give Knox a mulligan.

More importantly, the tight end’s matchup is appealing this week. The Patriots have surrendered 503 receiving yards to tight ends this season, giving up 45.7 yards per game to the position. More importantly, New England has struggled when facing a formidable tight end. They have surrendered 63.3 receiving yards per game this year to Mark Andrews, David Njoku, and T.J. Hockenson. By comparison, they have given up only 28.5 receiving yards per game to all other tight ends. Knox led the team with 89 receiving yards in the last matchup against the Patriots. While he won’t have 89 yards again this week, the tight end should have no trouble totaling at least 40 yards against New England.

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