Today, I’ll be highlighting some potential bust candidates for the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season. Recently, I covered some popular rookie bust candidates for 2023. Obviously, I will likely get some of these calls wrong. However, that’s what happens in fantasy football and it’s up to you to ultimately decide who will and will not boom or bust in fantasy football from year to year. Here, I wanted to discuss my process and why some veteran and second-year players I expect to disappoint for fantasy football in 2023.

My approach was mainly by the player’s current average draft position (ADP) at the end of March, into April via Draft Sharks. Ultimately, I decided whether or not their current ADP would be warranted based on their opportunity. Keep in mind, this ADP is subject to change throughout the offseason and following the 2023 NFL Draft. In addition, I focused primarily on guys drafted in the top eight rounds because later-round picks are usually dart throws. Not to mention, it is tough to consider them busts if their ADP is late. Without further ado, let’s jump into this top-10 list for potential fantasy football bust candidates in 2023.

Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones, the Giants quarterback of the future, had a career year last season under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. He earned every bit of his multi-year contract extension. While I trust Daboll as a coach, I did not trust Jones’ fantasy production in 2022, and here is why I think he could bust in 2023. 

The Giants are attempting to surround Jones with more talented receiving options this offseason. Darren Waller was the best addition they made, but he will be turning 31 early this coming season and hasn’t played an entire season in two years. That being said, the best of Waller may be behind him.

In addition to Waller, the Giants brought back a handful of players who are either older veterans, players coming off serious injuries, or in some cases, both. Overall, I am not impressed with who the Giants added to support the development of Jones. 

#Giants Free Agency

Added:
TE Darren Waller
LB Bobby Okereke
WR Parris Campbell
WR Jeff Smith
DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
CB Leonard Johnson

Retained:
QB Daniel Jones
RB Saquon Barkley
RB Matt Breida
WR Darius Slayton
WR Sterling Shepard
WR Isaiah Hodgins
LB Jarrad Davis
OL Wyatt…

— Giants Daily (@NYGDaily) March 21, 2023

I would feel differently about Jones if the Giants added a legit alpha wide receiver. They may draft a wide receiver in the draft this year, but we all know how the wide receivers in this class appear to be underwhelming. Maybe we are just spoiled from the past years’ wide receivers.

Fantasy managers are drafting Jones as if he has already taken the next step. He is in the middle of the seventh round (QB14), and there are much better options around that range. Furthermore, his average draft position is higher than I am willing to take him. In the end, this sets his fantasy managers up for disappointment. 

I could be entirely off base here, but Jones only scored 15 passing touchdowns last season. On top of that, the only thing the Giants have done is add an aging tight end who thrives in the slot like all of their other additions this offseason. 

I don’t see much difference between last year and the upcoming season. Therefore, there is no reason to bump him up in draft boards. Give me the other options at the current cost in the seventh round. 

Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray made the potential bust candidate list because of a few factors. The first is his most recent ACL injury in the 2022 season. Recovery times don’t have an evergreen timetable laying out how long a player will return to 100% after specific injuries. 

Every player is different, and so are recovery times. Examples of this are Chris Godwin and Michael Gallup, and both had the same injuries, but their seasons were utterly different. In your traditional redraft fantasy football, it is never a great bet to buy into players coming off of injuries such as these. For the most part.

In addition to the recovery time, the Arizona Cardinals are at the beginning stages of a massive rebuilding project. They have no incentive to rush Murray back on the field post-ACL recovery. That being said when he does hit the field, I don’t believe he’ll be able to rely on his legs as much as he used to.

Furthermore, a DeAndre Hopkins trade is imminent, and Hopkins was Kyler’s best-receiving weapon. So now, on top of losing efficiency in his rushing ability, he will lose his number-one receiving option. All in all, it doesn’t sound like a recipe for success. 

It is better to avoid Murray, so you don’t have to deal with the headache to start the year and the lack of production as he gets up to speed. Not to mention, with a potentially wasted year in 2023, there is a chance Murray doesn’t play at all. Ultimately, use your draft capital elsewhere and save yourself the stress and angst of waiting for Murray to return to full speed.

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams is in the same boat as Murray for the 2023 fantasy football season. Both of which are potential bust candidates. For redraft purposes, I am not expecting much production until later in the season. Williams had a significant, multi-ligament knee injury in 2022, and he is still rehabilitating his injury.

Like every year, we will get reports that Williams is ahead of schedule, making him shoot up draft boards around redraft fantasy football draft time. As I stated above, avoiding injured players coming into the season is a safe bet.

It will save you a headache, and play the waiting game to determine when you can start them. In terms of average draft position on the Draft Sharks site in March, Williams is at the late end of the fourth round (ADP 4.8, RB18). This price is way too steep for me. 

Overall, Williams is a bust candidate because if you want him on your roster, you must spend significant draft capital to get him. That being said, you could make a case for him if he were a late-round pick. Recovering from a non-producing player this early in the draft is harder. Eventually, I predict Williams will drop into the 6th-8th round range. The goal is to win fantasy football games, and Williams in your IR slot doesn’t help you do that.

Kenneth Gainwell

This one may surprise you because Kenneth Gainwell has never been a huge fantasy producer. Last year, Gainwell had an incredible playoff run with the Eagles in 2022. Between that and Miles Sanders leaving, it will likely result in Gainwell being over-drafted this offseason. When Sanders confirmed he was leaving Philadelphia for another franchise, the sky was the limit for Gainwell.

While we always assumed the Eagles would add another running back to replace Sanders, it all came crashing down when the Eagles signed Rashaad Penny this offseason. While both players are talented in their own right, the Eagles love to run a committee approach with their backfield. Additionally, Penny might be a nice winner from this year’s NFL free agency. 

Gainwell is in the 10th round (ADP 13.9, RB44). His current draft position is an excellent value for the production that he will have throughout the 2023 season. I am mentioning Gainwell and how he is a bust candidate because his running mate, Penny, is going several rounds later than Gainwell. 

*Statistics from Player Profiler

If I can get one of the NFL’s most efficient back (when healthy), behind the same bruising offense five rounds later, I will go that route. His bust candidacy isn’t about Gainwell not providing fantasy football value. Really, it’s more about maximizing your draft capital and getting more bang for your buck. All that being said, give me those players over Gainwell for the 2023 fantasy football season.

AJ Dillon

We are still waiting for the AJ Dillon breakout. Since the Packers selected Dillon in the 2020 NFL Draft, we have waited for him to take over the Green Bay backfield. After restructuring his deal to stay with the Packers for the 2023 season, Aaron Jones isn’t going away just yet.

I don’t think Jones restructuring his contract saves him from being cut down the road, but at this moment, Dillon is just a glorified handcuff. Drafting a handcuff in the 8th round of fantasy drafts isn’t the best strategy, especially when you can get Jones in the early 4th round.

Dillion is currently the RB30 off the board and going in a similar range as David Montgomery (RB33), James Cook (RB25), Rachaad White (RB26), and Miles Sanders (RB24). I would rather have all of these other running backs than Dillon. 

There are lead running backs drafted in similar running backs drafted in the same range as Dillon, and I would rather draft one of the other running backs because Dillon is in a timeshare with a more talented running back in Jones. 

In Buffalo, Cook doesn’t have the backfield to himself, but at least he is a factor in the receiving game. Dillon doesn’t possess the receiving game upside like Jones or other running backs he is going around. He caught one more pass but had less receiving yardage than Nick Chubb, who is notorious for not being involved in the passing game. Overall, Dillon has caught his share of passes in the NFL, but it wasn’t due to his pass-catching ability, more so the offense as a whole.

The only time we see a massive increase in value for Dillon is if Aaron Jones gets hurt. Dillon doesn’t give you a great return on the draft capital you invested in him. Instead, I would pick another option in the same range as back on things going right for Dillon throughout the season.

Jameson Williams

As of now, I am claiming that Jameson Williams is a bust candidate for 2023. I am a massive Williams fan and have plenty of shares of him across my dynasty squads. While I am optimistic that he will be an NFL superstar one day, we must acknowledge that he is a risky pick this year in redraft leagues.

Williams is the classic case of risk to reward ratio. Additionally, we have really yet to see him be productive in the NFL. He was injured going into last season, and when he got on the field, he flashed just like he did in college. However, we just haven’t seen him productive in the NFL yet.

Jameson Williams flea flicker vs Packers shows his next level speed⬇️
-Accelerates through catch and in 2 steps obliterates #31's angle. Then easy pullaway speed while stumbling no less.
-ACL recovery 👍👍
-Becomes Detroit Lions key deep threat with DJ Chark exit pic.twitter.com/v4MtC5zIPI

— Jimmy Liao MD – Detroit Lions Morning Rounds (@JimmyLiaoMD) March 27, 2023

Williams is drafted in drafts in the late 6th into the early 7th round (WR30). A couple of other wide receivers going after him are Brandon Aiyuk, who we have seen produce around three other elite players and Diontae Johnson. People forget that Johnson quietly had another season with over 140 targets.

I hope the Lions use him like the superstar we know he is, but another part of me feels like he will be a field stretcher, which is the most significant risk with Williams right now. It might come down to him being a great player in the NFL, not the fantasy football producer we thought he would be. Finally, I believe that his odds of busting are just as great as his chances to be elite.

Dameon Pierce

There’s no denying that Dameon Pierce had a great rookie season. He went from a later-round selection to a fantasy superstar while healthy. However, he lands on the bust candidates’ list because the Texans added Devin Singletary in free agency. Initially, I wasn’t worried about the addition of Singletary. After digging deeper into the efficiency metrics, I thought Singletary was much more efficient than I thought.

*Statistics from Player Profiler

I still think that Pierce is the better back in that backfield. Still, I can see Singletary taking away essential volume from Pierce. Additionally, I believe that both have very similar skill sets. At the same time, the addition of Singletary is questionable when the Texans already had Pierce.

Adding a similar running back to Pierce makes me think that the Texans will be adding to their running back room. While Pierce didn’t have a lot of pass-catching upsides anyways, if they add a pass-catching running back in the Draft, then Pierce’s upside is very much capped. Overall, you would need to rely on the rushing volume for his fantasy production.

We see this all the time when later-round running backs get replaced. That being said, Pierce is not on the verge of being replaced, but he has more competition this year than last. Furthermore, Pierce’s average draft position is in the fourth round of fantasy football drafts. If he climbs up draft boards, then managers will be disappointed in his production, causing Pierce to be considered a fantasy football bust in 2023.

D.J. Moore

This next bust candidate was the center of a blockbuster trade that kicked off this off-season. Justin Fields got his alpha wide receiver, but I think DJ Moore will not live up to expectations. Moore’s standard comparison right now is Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill after joining a new team with an upward trending, young quarterback.

The difference is Moore went from a team who was 28th in pass play rate last year to the Bears, who were dead last in pass play rate. Even with an expectation of the Bears passing the ball more in 2023, Fields’ passing efficiency needs to increase. I expect Fields to improve, but he was one of the worst-graded passing quarterbacks in the NFL last year with a 71.6 True Passer Rating via Player Profiler.

Continually, Moore came from an offense in Carolina where he was the only legit weapon. Quarterback play wasn’t ideal, but after the Christian McCaffery trade, he was the only legit threat in the passing game. In the end, Carolina funneled the ball to him.

Now that Moore is in Chicago, he has to deal with a handful of other weapons in the Bears’ offense. It would be safe to say that Chicago’s supporting cast now is better than what Moore played with last season. While Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool are all respectable NFL offensive playmakers. Rumor has it that the Bears might also be in the Bijan Robinson sweepstakes at pick 9.

I can envision Moore skyrocketing up draft boards under the assumption that he helps Fields take a step forward. That will be the case in assisting Fields, but I still expect Moore to have a similar stat line after the 2023 season is all said and done. If he has a similar stat line, why are we drafting him higher in redraft leagues?

Setting high expectations and thinking in absolutes is how we let ourselves down. There is a chance that Moore finally puts together an elite season, but there is also a chance that he will do what he has done over his career. I am cautiously optimistic, but it makes him a bust candidate in my book.

George Kittle

George Kittle is a perennial top-five tight end selection in redraft fantasy football every year. However, the issue with Kittle is his boom-or-bust nature and his availability due to injuries. While it is excellent in redraft fantasy football leagues, predicting when Kittle will have his “boom” games is tough.

Fantasy football has a lot of variances; it is just a part of the game. Kittle’s consistency has always been an issue, and last year he ranked 6th in our Consistency Score but only finished in the top-12 tight ends at 41.18%. 

All things considered, the top-12 tight end is a relatively low bar in scoring. To put it into perspective, guys like Zach Ertz, Tyler Higbee, and Pat Freiermuth all finished with the same or a higher percentage of games in the top 12 weekly tight end territory last season. 

Kittle is usually the beneficiary when the other stars are missing. You can see the splits when Kittle played without Deebo Samuel specifically. Ultimately, Kittle thrives when one of the weapons is missing in the 49er offense.

*Statistics via StatMuse

Kyle Shannahan is notorious for game planning around one guy. When you have to guess which player will get the majority of the looks, you are bound to start Kittle during a dud game.

In addition to Shannahan’s offensive methodology, Kittle excels as a blocker and takes pride in that portion of the job. Since Kittle is an excellent blocker, it caps his upside as a pass catcher.

Continually, Kittle thrived when Brock Purdy served as the quarterback for the 49ers. Right now, I project Trey Lance will at least start the season as the 49ers starting quarterback. With Lance, you must worry about inefficiencies in the passing game and his tendency to run to evade pressure.

Kittle is a superstar at the position, but the 49ers have the embarrassment of riches with offensive weapons. Fantasy football managers could be disappointed drafting Kittle so highly this year. Finally, it might be in their best interest to draft another option in the same range.

Dalton Schultz

The Dalton Schultz signing with the Texans throughout this offseason reminds me of Austin Hooper signing with the Cleveland Browns back in 2020. Hooper had a great year in Atlanta and capitalized on the Browns’ interest. Schultz signed a one-year deal with the Texans after turning down a three-year, $36 million contract with the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Schultz isn’t the type of tight end that jumps off the page athletically. This coming year, he will miss his rapport with Dak Prescott, who loved utilizing the tight end position in the Dallas offense, leaning on Schultz as a nice safety blanket option. Now, he is going to have a rookie quarterback in 2023. No matter how promising the rookie the Texans select is, there will surely be growing pains. 

In addition to a rookie quarterback, I think the Texans draft a rookie wide receiver to pair up with their quarterback of the future. The Texans invested in the rushing game by signing former Bills’ running back, Singletary. Now, the Texans will want to lean on the run game to help support their rookie quarterback.

Schultz is currently drafted in the early 7th round as the 8th tight end off the board. With that, he is in the notorious zone where waiting on tight ends is better. Either get the elite guys at the beginning of the draft or wait until the end.

Receiving options tend to struggle when they have rookie quarterbacks. Additionally, having a rookie behind center could be the case in disappointing fantasy football managers at Schultz’s ADP. Not to mention, there are likely going to be better options on the board at the time. 

Conclusion

I hope you enjoyed my 2023 bust candidate list for fantasy football. While all these players have an equal opportunity to be usable in fantasy, I wanted to highlight why I am a bit pessimistic about their projected outcomes and draft projections. 

Feel free to check out my other articles as we approach the 2023 NFL Draft and find all the latest free agency news and tracking. Let me know on Twitter who you think will bust next year for fantasy football purposes. Until next time.

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