Fantasy Football Outlook

After a Lisfranc injury wiped out his rookie season, Travis Etienne burst onto the scene in 2022. He totalled over 1,400 yards from scrimmage en route to an RB17 finish. What makes this total so impressive is that Etienne was a part-time player for half the season.

He did not log more than 60% of the snaps until Week 7. From then on, Etienne would eclipse the century mark on the ground five times and finish with an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. He showed he could be efficient and provide big plays when needed.

Etienne will now look to build upon this impressive debut. With an RB12 price tag according to our up-to-date fantasy football rankings, let’s see what we can expect for 2023.

2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Etienne enters 2023 as the clear lead back for the Jaguars, but should we be concerned about him losing touches? The Jaguars selected rookie running back Tank Bigsby in the third round of the NFL Draft. He may factor more into their plans than some realize.

While Etienne had an impressive season carrying the lion’s share of the work, 2022 marked the first time a running back eclipsed 180 carries and 870 yards in a Doug Pederson-led offense.

Etienne is arguably the most talented back Peterson has ever coached. This could explain why Etienne was the first to eclipse the above marks. Yet, the Jaguars drafted a back who they are seemingly in love with.

What Have the Jaguars Seen in Rookie RB Tank Bigsby? https://t.co/lRW713CYWX

— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) July 18, 2023

Given their selection of Bigsby, it’s very possible Etienne’s 2022 usage was a necessity rather than the plan. The Jaguars began the year splitting reps between Etienne and James Robinson. However, once they realized Robinson had little juice left, he was jettisoned off the roster, and Etienne was left to handle the load. Would this have played out differently with someone more talented than Robinson?

Chinks in The Armor

We do need to discuss some flaws in Etienne’s game. The passing game was an area he struggled with at times in 2022.

Travis Etienne's NFL receiving profile a concern. Last season:

* 7.5% target share, barely above Nick Chubb 6.8%. Note ETN ran 107 more routes than Chubb.
* 8th among all RBs in routes last season, but 21st in catches
* 30th among 49 qualifying RBs in yards per route run

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 22, 2023

Another concern? His performance in goal-line situations. Etienne only converted two touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. According to Sharp Football, Bigsby converted 78.3% of his short-yardage carries into first downs or touchdowns. Furthermore, Etienne finished 25th in our consistency score among running backs.

The selection of Bigsby might be a move for depth. But given Bigsby’s profile, it seems a little too coincidental the Jaguars selected a back who excels in Etienne’s weaknesses.

Furthermore, Etienne finished 2022 as the RB17. Yet, he is going off of draft boards as the RB13, according to Fantrax‘s average draft position (ADP). It might be a stretch to expect a better 2023 with Bigsby potentially in the mix. Overall, Etienne is a very good player, but he does carry some red flags that could hinder his upside in terms of fantasy production. Drafters should not be surprised if he fails to deliver on his current ADP.

Dynasty Outlook

According to our up-to-date dynasty football rankings, Etienne is ranked as RB7.

I don’t have a single Etienne share across 35 dynasty leagues, so take what comes next with a grain of salt. I had some concerns about Etienne when he entered the league. Last year he was not effective as a goal-line/short-yardage back and struggled at times in the passing game. The door is cracked open just enough for Bigsby to potentially snatch these roles.

Furthermore, Etienne is a talented back in his own right, but some glaring holes in his game could come back to bite him. Somewhat similar to Kenneth Walker in Seattle.

Explosive/efficient players like Etienne certainly have a place on dynasty rosters. A cornerstone running back may not be one of them. If you can find an eager trade partner, cashing out while Etienne’s stock is high might not be the worst idea.

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