Thanks for checking out our latest article in our 2021 Team Preview series. We will be breaking down the outlook for teams in 2021, key acquisitions during the off-season and through the 2021 NFL Draft, key losses, and looking at each team from a dynasty perspective. We’ll give you some players to consider buying, selling, stashing, and potential sleeper candidates. Stay tuned for more team breakdowns as we approach the 2021 NFL season. Here is our 2021 Team Preview: Los Angeles Chargers.
2021 Outlook
Lightning struck twice for the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason, as they landed left tackle Rashawn Slater with the 13th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, while also signing a brand new coaching staff led by head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Running back Austin Ekeler returns fully healthy after suffering numerous lower-body injuries and a concussion that held him to just 10 games in 2020. Ekeler’s elite pass-catching ability will significantly elevate the potency of an offense that ranked 18th in points scored during quarterback Justin Herbert’s impressive rookie campaign. The defensive unit will need to markedly improve its performance across the board if the Chargers want to become a playoff contender within a challenging AFC West division in 2021.
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I believe the Chargers will wind up second in the division behind the Kansas City Chiefs, finishing the regular season with an 11-6 record to earn a bid into the 2021 Wild Card Weekend. To make this dream a reality, Los Angeles needs to survive their gauntlet of a schedule in the first half of the season, playing four top-tier defenses in the first six weeks before their Week 7 bye. Closing the last half of the season with games against the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Houston Texans, and Las Vegas Raiders allows the Chargers to have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. Let’s look at their key acquisitions and losses that will help make this possible.
Key Acquisitions/Losses
The biggest upgrade for the Chargers happened along the offensive line, as the front office spent big money on former Packers center Corey Linsley and right tackle, Matt Feiler, in free agency. Slater fills the important void at left tackle to protect Herbert’s blindside, an important aspect of any offense with a right-handed quarterback. In 2020, Herbert had a 79 percent protection rate, ranking 32nd amongst all quarterbacks. Despite the lackluster protection given by the offensive line in 2020, Herbert averaged a 10.3 Consistency Score, finishing as a QB1 in 57% of his starts, which ranked seventh-best. Giving him more time in the pocket to go through his progressions and drop-backs is bad news for opposing defenses but fantastic news for Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Ekeler.
The Saints gave up two of their assets from 2020, as offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi arrives with a ton of experience as the former Saints offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach across two decades. Lombardi brings along veteran tight end Jared Cook, who will earn a one-year, $4.5 million guaranteed deal to build receiving depth for Herbert. Cook is an underrated receiving tight end and an experienced blocker. His signing will allow the team to run a lot of 12 or 22 personnel, known as two-tight-end sets, with Donald Parham and third-round rookie Tre’ McKitty used interchangeably alongside Cook. This will really bolster the offensive line and leave Allen and Williams isolated on the perimeter to win one-on-one passes, while delivering more opportunities to run in-breaking routes that will allow Herbert to develop as a passer on intermediate routes.
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On defense, Pro-Bowl defensive end Joey Bosa and All-Pro safety Derwin James but Pro Football Focus still rates their collective unit as a Tier 3 defense, meaning Staley has an uphill battle to fight in a division with Patrick Mahomes. That’s where offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes into play. Lombardi inherits his first official offensive coordinator role and will likely incorporate heavier personnel, whether it be on the line of scrimmage or in the backfield using the plethora of running backs behind Ekeler, including Josh Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and rookie Larry Rountree III. Alvin Kamara and Ekeler have a similar skillset, relying on elusiveness and sure-hands to be a key component in the passing game. Kamara edged out Latavius Murray in carries but they both played a key role in producing as a ball-carrier in the Lombardi-Peyton offense in New Orleans.
Expect the same situation to play out with Ekeler and whoever wins the reserve running back job, with Ekeler getting 250+ touches and the majority of touchdowns. Mike Williams is one of the league’s most physically dominant wide receivers yet the Chargers never figured out how to utilize him during the Anthony Lynn era. In 2020, Williams saw an average depth of target (ADOT) of 14.8 yards, while commanding a meager 15.8% target share. This was 11% less than Allen, who finished 2020 as the WR14 in 1/2-PPR formats after being blanketed with a whopping 147 targets. In the Lombardi offense, expect Williams to run more slants, flats, and curls to diversify the passing attack without relying as heavily on Allen in the intermediate game. A balanced approach with heavy play-action out of 11 personnel is also expected, as third-round wideout Josh Palmer was a second-day investment that will get featured in three-wide receiver sets.
Dynasty Quick Hits
Buy Low: Mike Williams
It’s mid-August and Mike Williams is still being valued too low. The 26-year old wideout has an ADP of 106 in PPR dynasty formats and could return massive value by replicating his double-digit touchdown effort from 2018. Williams is talented enough to combine a double-digit touchdown season with 1,000+ receiving yards, as he did in 2019 with Philip Rivers. The window to buy Williams with a sub-100 ADP will shut once the 2021 season gets underway, so make sure you take advantage of any fantasy manager eager to sell him at current value.
Sell High: Jared Cook
Jared Cook signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal to join his former offensive assistant Joe Lombardi in Los Angeles for 2021. The veteran is a great blocking tight end and has seen at least six or more touchdowns in each of his last three seasons, making him a reliable tight end to plug into lineups most weeks. However, the Chargers have impressive depth at tight end, with towering 6’8 Donald Parham and rookie third-rounder Tre’ McKitty forming a good tandem of reserves that could eat into Cook’s target share. Ekeler, Allen, and Williams should be the primary target hogs in an offense that could resemble the run-centric, heavy personnel seen in New Orleans across the last few seasons. If this is the case, Cook could be more of a blocking tight end used sparingly as a receiver in a tight-end-by-committee approach. Fantasy managers can probably acquire a 2022 third-round pick right now in exchange for the aging Cook. I like Cook more in redraft leagues as a viable streaming option but his value will be lower by the end of the year.
Sleeper: Josh Palmer
Josh Palmer has the prototypical modern wide receiver build, somewhere in-between the slender Allen and bruising frame of Williams. He’s a phenomenal ball-tracker and can manipulate space and his route-running to create separation for targets from Herbert. Especially with Williams’ propensity to succumb to injuries, fair or unfair, Palmer can be picked up off of most dynasty waiver wires or extremely late in rookie drafts, as he’s currently valued as the WR93 with an ADP of 258. He’s the most likely to see meaningful volume outside of the big three (Ekeler, Allen, and Williams) for the Chargers in 2021 and becomes a viable Flex play should injuries befall either starting wide receiver.
Stash: Larry Rountree III
This is a development project but sixth-round running back Larry Rountree III offers an interesting asset to Chargers teams beyond 2021. He played a powerful game at Missouri as a three-year starter and has the ability to achieve burst through running lanes. This burst, combined with his quick directional cuts, give Rountree a chance to become a better change-of-pace back than Joshua Kelley, who averaged a disappointing 3.2 YPC on 111 carries in 2020. He may not get an extensive opportunity for another year, but stashing Rountree now will be beneficial, particularly if you’re a dynasty manager in rebuild mode.
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