Thanks for checking out our latest article in our 2021 Team Preview series. We will be breaking down the outlook for teams in 2021, key acquisitions during the off-season and through the 2021 NFL Draft, key losses, and looking at each team from a dynasty perspective. We’ll give you some players to consider buying, selling, stashing, and potential sleeper candidates. Stay tuned for more team breakdowns as we approach the 2021 NFL season. Here is our 2021 Team Preview: San Francisco 49ers.
2021 Outlook
Last week I went to my first live concert in almost two years: The Hella Mega Tour. Green Day, Weezer, and Fall Out Boy! It was unbelievably fun to watch live music again. There was an opening band as well; The Interrupters, they were fine. They played well but nothing special or memorable about the short set. They were just there to get the crowd warmed up for the main event. I felt a little bad for them because there was very little fan engagement, no one really was there to see them perform, and the place really got rocking when they vacated the stage for the headliners.
And all I could think of was Jimmy Garoppolo.
Mr. GQ himself, Jimmy G, may just be keeping the starting seat warm for highly-touted and highly-drafted rookie quarterback Trey Lance this year. After a disappointing 6-10 finish to the 2020 season, 49ers fans and management both want and expect to see a turnaround this year, and it’s not going to take much for the pitchforks to come out and demand that Garoppolo find a seat on the bench. Oddsmakers certainly feel that this team has the talent and schedule to get the ship pointed in the right direction this year. Even playing in a division with the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and up-and-coming Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers are the Vegas favorites to win the NFC West this year. Thanks in part to what could be the easiest schedule of all NFL teams. Will it actually happen? The answer may depend on what decisions they make about the quarterback position.
All signs point to Lance taking over and commanding a truly dominant offense. Combined with their elite defense, this is a team with strong Super Bowl aspirations.
Key Acquisitions/Losses
The major offseason moves for the 49ers were primarily highlighted by the impactful offensive players selected in the first three rounds of the 2021 NFL draft (Lance in round 1 and Trey Sermon in round 3) and securing the services of their All-Pro tackle Trent Williams for the next six seasons.
They also give multi-year deals to bruising fullback Kyle Juszczyk and center Alex Mack, but after signing Trey Lance to a rookie deal worth $34 million and signing Williams for $138 million, they had to downshift to one-year deals just to add depth to the roster for the 2021 season. In fact, San Francisco re-signed or brought in 31 players on one-year deals and are now looking at a payroll of $3 million over the NFL salary cap, per Spotrac.
They are certainly banking on players like Lance, Williams, and Juszczyk to pay dividends on their huge deals because Garoppolo comes in with a $26.4 million cap hit this year, and if things go to plan, he won’t see the field much past the first few weeks of the season. Williams, an eight-time Pro Bowler, is now the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history and was clearly the primary target entering the offseason for San Francisco and he helps secure the important left side of the line for Lance’s pass plays or designed runs. Williams led all offensive linemen last year with a 91.9 grade from Pro Football Focus.
On the defensive side of the ball, San Francisco elected not to bring back Richard Sherman but instead re-signed all remaining free agents from their secondary: Dontae Johnson, Jason Verrett, and Emmanuel Moseley. This unit ranked 11th in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and only lost Ahkello Witherspoon, a cornerback with just one interception and 18 tackles in 2020.
In terms of other departures, the offense may actually be addition by subtraction coming into 2021. Gone are bit offensive players Tevin Coleman, Kendrick Bourne, Jerick McKinnon, and Trent Taylor. Each of these had flashes from time to time in seasons past, but it was time for them to make way for more dynamic forces in the offense.
Dynasty Quick Hits
Buy Low: Trey Sermon
The difference in ADP for the San Francisco running backs on Underdog versus National Fantasy Championship paints a very interesting picture. In standard redraft leagues on NFC, Mostert is the RB29 with an ADP of 81 and Sermon is RB32 with an ADP of 90. On Underdog, Sermon is the RB27 while Mostert is RB31. Why the difference?
In both formats, these two are being drafted as a third running back, so either a Flex or bench position depending on the rest of your roster. But on Underdog, team managers are looking further out to the end of the season and trying to project who will have the primary role in a dominant offense towards the end of the season; the fantasy playoffs.
It’s a virtual certainty that Sermon will take over for the 29-year-old Mostert at some point this season. San Francisco traded up into the third round to acquire the talented back from Ohio State. Sermon rushed for 870 yards on 116 attempts in just eight games last year, good for 7.5 YPC. If you can acquire Sermon’s services in drafts anytime after pick 90, you’ll have a likely starting running back by season’s end in round eight. He won’t be cheap, but if you want to get in on Sermon, now is the team before he takes off and his price shoots up.
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Sell High: George Kittle
Sell George Kittle, a top-three tight end, in a dynasty format? Hear me out. Assuming Kittle comes into this year healthy and playing at a high level, the perceived value of the premium tight ends has never been higher. Each of Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller are going in the top-30 in NFC drafts, and then there is a 30-spot gap between Kittle and the next tight end off the board, Kyle Pitts.
Assuming Lance is the quarterback at some point in the first quarter of the season, there are suddenly a lot of mouths to feed in the Bay Area. Besides Kittle, there are targets that need to go to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Mostert, Sermon, and Wayne Gallman are all capable backs in different aspects of the offense, and the coaching staff has already openly talked about designed run plays for Lance in the offense.
Back in 2019 when Kittle last topped 100 balls thrown his way, he had 25% more targets than anyone else on his team. In 2018, he had 70 more targets and 900 more receiving yards than the next-closest receiver. I just don’t see the offensive distribution being that narrow this year, so if Kittle starts off hot, it may be time to bring in a huge haul that could include a mid-tier tight end and another elite player.
Sleeper: Deebo Samuel
The hype train is flying down the tracks right now for receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Currently drafted as the WR26, fantasy managers are close to pushing Aiyuk into WR2 draft territory. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel is coming off the board as WR37 around pick 90 in most drafts.
I understand the hype around Aiyuk, but Samuel also stands out to me as a receiver who should be taken higher, despite his injuries of 2020. Samuel ranked top 20 in both 2019 and 2020 in yards per route run as well as top 12 in catch rate those two seasons, according to Player Profiler. His greatest weapons are creating open space with his speed down the field and catching tough balls with his sure hands. If Lance ends up the starter this season, those two should certainly complement each other considering Lance was awarded the Strongest Arm award by Pro Football Focus during draft season. Coaches have also been raving about his deep ball accuracy.
If these two develop some quick chemistry, the sky is literally the limit for the Lance-Samuel combo.
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Stash: Jalen Hurd
You’ve heard of Alvin Kamara, right? He’s the stud pass-catching running back for the New Orleans Saints and one of the top fantasy options in all the land, no matter who his quarterback is. Well, before transferring to Baylor University and switching to wide receiver, Jalen Hurd was ahead of Kamara on the University of Tennessee depth chart.
In 2019, the 49ers spent a third-round draft pick on Hurd, but he has been snake-bitten with injuries since then. He missed his rookie season with a back injury and then tore an ACL before he could play a snap in 2020. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan admitted this week that Hurd has a lot of catching up to do and is actually fighting for a roster spot at this point, but the fact remains if he can get over his injuries, the talent is undeniable. In fact, the only time we have seen Hurd in an NFL game he caught two touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys in a preseason game in 2019.
In his senior season, Hurd caught 69 balls for 946 yards and four touchdowns and added another 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries. Altogether, he averaged 9.9 yards per play from scrimmage and was one of the bigger play threats in the entire NCAA. Even if it is not with San Francisco, Hurd could carve out a swiss army knife role on some other team and he is currently free in even the deepest of drafts (ADP of 299 in NFC high-stakes drafts). And he’s basically free at this point.
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