2023 BMW Championship Picks, Odds, and Values
Greetings folks. We’re back again with another edition for our second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Last week, we had the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This week, we’ll be headed to Olympia Fields (North Course) in Olympia Fields, IL, for the BMW Championship. We have a lot of unraveling to do for this week’s showdown before heading to East Lake for our final event of the season. It’s time to end the year with a bang.
The North Course at Olympia Fields is a par 70. It measures 7,366 yards featuring Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass rough, and Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens measuring about 5,000 square feet on average.
The BMW Championship will consist of the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings. It will be a no-cut event where the last 30 players standing will punch their ticket to Eat Lake to compete for the Tour Championship. Let’s get right into it with some brief history, as well as my favorite picks and values to target in this one.
BMW Championship History
- 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington Country Club
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
- 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
- 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms
The Track — Olympia Fields
We will once again be back at Olympia Fields since seeing it last in 2020 when John Rahm came out victorious in a playoff against Dustin Johnson at 4 under par. Olympia Fields is truly one of the hardest tests on the PGA Tour. Unsurprisingly, only five players broke par the entire week back in 2020.
Olympia Fields is a tree-lined and very narrow golf course with brutally thick rough. This track certainly gives me the Oak Hill / Winged Foot vibe, but just shorter.
The keys are: hitting fairways, using distance as an advantage, keeping the ball in play, elite tee to green play and making pars. To be successful at Olympia Fields, you need an elite all-around golf game.
Last 36 Rounds — Top 10 Players SG: Tee-to-Green
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Lucas Glover
- Jon Rahm
- Patrick Cantlay
- Si Woo Kim
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Collin Morikawa
- Viktor Hovland
- Tyrell Hatton
Last 36 Rounds — Top 10 Payers SG: Driving Distance & Fairways Gained (mixed model)
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Tyrell Hatton
- Rory McIlroy
- Viktor Hovland
- Scottie Scheffler
- Tom Kim
Last 36 Rounds — Top 10 Players SG: Approach
- Scottie Scheffler
- Lucas Glover
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Russell Henley
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Jon Rahm
- Sepp Straka
- Tom Kim
- Justin Rose
Last 36 Rounds — Top 10 Players Bogey Avoidance
- Lucas Glover
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Brian Harman
- Russell Henley
- Patrick Cantlay
- Scottie Scheffler
- Max Homa
- JT Poston
- Adam Hadwin
- Tyrrell Hatton
Last 36 Rounds — Top 10 Players on Hard Golf Courses
- Jordan Spieth
- Jon Rahm
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Scottie Scheffler
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jason Day
- Viktor Hovland
- Tony Finau
- Justin Rose
Picks to Win
Rory McIlroy 7/1 (MGM)
Like Scottie Scheffler last week, I simply could not care less about the number this week on Rory McIlroy. All things considered, I think he’s a must-bet. Olympia Fields is no Sedgefield Country Club. Olympia Fields is no TPC Southwind. Also, Olympia Fields is no Detroit Golf Club. You get the gist. Olympia Fields is a major championship, battle-tested track.
Historically, the big boys have run this place. Which is exactly what McIlroy will do this week. Looking at the other two on top, we see Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Scheffler has cooled off a bit since his unimaginable stretch this mid-season. However, Rahm does not seem like himself as of late. Last week at TPC Southwind, Rahm lost strokes off the tee. The last time he did that was in March at the Arnold Palmer.
Simply put, McIlroy feels like the big boy who will do it this week. He’s been putting up ridiculous numbers and has not finished outside the top 10 since May. Let that sink in.
Furthermore, the only time Rory played Olympia Fields was in 2020 when he finished T12. This past year at Oak Hill, Rory finished T7. All eyes are on the Northern Ireland native to get it done this week just south of the Windy City.
Cameron Davis 60/1 (FanDuel)
Cameron Davis has a T10, T7, and T6 in his last three starts. His strokes gained distribution is all across the board, meaning Davis has recently played some stellar all-around golf. Additionally, in his previous six starts, Davis has gained over five and a half strokes tee to green in five of them.
As mentioned, this track has characteristics similar to Oak Hill, where the 2023 PGA Championship was played. Davis finished T4 at Oak Hill, going five under in the final round. Davis is a sneaky play this week, whose odds are way too long for me. Must bet here on Davis.
Check out all of our latest DFS content, including picks, strategies, advice, and more, here.
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