2023 Tight End Prospect Success Indicator Report

Welcome to the second annual Tight End Prospect Success Indicator Report!

What is the Prospect Success Indicator?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the noise and biases and increase our hit rates. It compares those incoming rookie profiles to the historical average of a top 5 tight-end profile. Prospects are then measured against that profile, and the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank tells us how close these incoming rookies match that profile.

FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?

No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the historical profile of a tight-end who scored 200+ PPR points, which more often than not equated to a top 5 season in fantasy football.

Tables

• The first table below shows that historically ~96% of all tight-end prospects who achieve a top 5 season are in the top 50th percentile and above.
• The second table shows us that tight-end prospects in the top 5 tiers produce ~95% of the total top 5 seasons in the historical database.

Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary

• PSI Rank: is the percent to which the prospect profile closely matches that of the historical top 5 profile.
  • FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
    • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 5 tight end in fantasy football.
• Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by FFFaceoff rookie draft data
• PSI Player Comp: these are the prospect-to-prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and college efficiency production.
• Actionable Takeaway: I encourage you to use this as a data point in your process to help determine who may be over/undervalued in rookie drafts.

TIER 5 – 50^TH PERCENTILE

Josh Whyle – Cincinnati

• PSI Rank: 51.2%
• Rookie ADP: UDFA
• PSI Profile Comp: Lucas Krull

Luke Schoonmaker – Michigan

• PSI Rank: 51.2%
• Rookie ADP: 3.11
• PSI Profile Comp: Hayden Hurst

Will Mallory – Miami

• PSI Rank: 57.1%
• Rookie ADP: 4.09
• PSI Profile Comp: Chris Gragg

TIER 4 – 60^TH PERCENTILE

Michael Mayer – Notre Dame

• PSI Rank: 63.0%
• Rookie ADP: 2.05
• PSI Profile Comp: Austin Hooper

Sam LaPorta – Iowa

• PSI Rank: 68.9%
• Rookie ADP: 3.05
• PSI Profile Comp: Jonnu Smith

TIER 3 – 70^TH PERCENTILE

Dalton Kincaid – Utah

• PSI Rank: 72.4%
• Rookie ADP: 1.10
• PSI Profile Comp: Coby Fleener

Luke Musgrave – Oregon St.

• PSI Rank: 75.8%
• Rookie ADP: 3.03
• PSI Profile Comp: Jelani Woods

TIER 2 – 80^TH PERCENTILE

Tucker Kraft – South Dakota St.

• PSI Rank: 82.7%
• Rookie ADP: 4.07
• PSI Profile Comp: Hunter Henry

TIER 1 – 90^TH PERCENTILE

Darnell Washington – Georgia

• PSI Rank: 95.8%
• Rookie ADP: 3.06
• PSI Profile Comp: Rob Gronkowski
• Medical: Possible Red Flag Due to Reported Knee Concerns

Want to know how these prospects rank against prior draft classes? Go to the Tight End PSI Database to find out.

Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @ProfootballPSI

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