In fantasy football, the bell cow running back is king. Even in a year where the first-round pendulum is swinging in the wide receiver direction, high-volume, dual-threat running backs still hold significant value at the start of fantasy football drafts. See Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
However, with the NFL being very much a pass-heavy league, coaches are adjusting their game plans by adopting the running back by committee (RBBC) approach. As a result, the number of bell cows in the league has unfortunately dropped. Everyone is confident drafting the top-tier bell cow running backs going in the first few rounds, but the running backs in the middle rounds are far less assured.
Here are a few mid-round running backs that I am confident can outproduce their current Yahoo average draft position (ADP).
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 42.4
Mixon’s fantasy stock has been oscillating throughout this offseason as many people, including the Bengals’ front office, weren’t sure he would return in 2023. Now that the uncertainty involving his contract and his off-the-field issues have all but been resolved, his situation as the Bengals’ RB1 looks to be quite promising.
For starters, the Bengals lost Samaje Perine to free agency this offseason. Now that might not sound like a big deal, but last year, Perine averaged a 40% snap share and nine opportunities (carries + targets) per game. With the only notable backs behind Mixon being an unimpressive, fifth-year Trayveon Williams, and a 2023 fifth-round pick in Chase Brown, it’s a pretty strong bet that Mixon will pick up some of that Perine slack.
Furthermore, if Joe Burrow enters the season limited nursing a calf injury, they’ll want to use the running game even more to take pressure off Burrow in the pocket. Mixon is currently Yahoo’s RB15, but I could easily see him putting up top-10 running back numbers in a potent Cincinnati offense. Check out where Mixon ranks in our up-to-date fantasy football rankings for the 2023 season.
Miles Sanders – Carolina Panthers
ADP: 44
Sanders became one of a few running back winners this offseason when he signed his four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers. Now, he goes from leading an RBBC behind Philadelphia’s #1 ranked offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), to being the projected bell cow for Carolina’s #16 PFF-ranked offensive line. Frank Reich is a major proponent of the ground-and-pound philosophy, and a rookie quarterback’s best friend is his running game. That said, the Panthers plan to feed Sanders early and often.
I’m confident volume will offset any decline in efficiency behind a comparably worse offensive line. If you take his career 5.0 YPC average, drop that down to 4.0 with Carolina’s middle-of-the-pack line, and apply that to bell-cow-level touches (270+ carries, 30+ catches), he’s still projected for at least 1,200 scrimmage yards in a bad division.
Additionally, this is on top of the fact that he won’t have Jalen Hurts vulturing touchdowns at the goal line anymore. High rushing volume, goal-line work, and receiving involvement sounds like a recipe for success to me, one that can certainly see him finish as a low-end RB1, while fantasy football managers only need to invest an RB2 or RB3 price.
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 64.8
Conner is one of the more undervalued bell cow backs in the league, primarily because he’s constantly injured on a bad team. He seems destined to miss a handful of games each year, which has fantasy managers apprehensive to draft a player who has only started 19 games in two seasons with Arizona. His propensity for injury carries a lot of risk but also leads to a potential value.
Being drafted as Yahoo’s RB23, Conner is going off the board at his floor as an RB3/Flex. His potential is far greater than RB3/Flex, though, as evidenced by his 2021 season where he finished as the RB5. On a Cardinals’ team where he’s averaged 4.0 YPC, 11 touchdowns, and 41.5 receptions a season, I’ll gladly take a pass-catching, goal-line bell cow for my seventh-round Flex spot.
Finally, the Cardinals are unlikely to have Kyler Murray to start the season as he recovers from his ACL tear last December. Arizona will be preparing to have Colt McCoy under center. If McCoy starts the year, then look for Conner to be heavily utilized out of the gate as they attempt to protect their backup quarterback.
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