5 Breakout Running Backs for 2023
5 Breakout Running Backs for 2023
Looking to gain the upper hand in your fantasy football league? Dive into this article to discover five explosive breakout running backs primed to make a game-changing impact. Among them, keep an eye on rookie Bijan Robinson, the dynamic rookie powering through with the Atlanta Falcons’ run-heavy offense. Additionally, don’t overlook James Cook, a sophomore sensation gearing up for a meteoric rise within the high-voltage Bills offense.
In this breakdown, we’ll explore their potential, strengths, and the exciting possibilities they bring to the fantasy football landscape. Get ready to supercharge your team with these breakout stars who could be the key to championship glory.
JK Dobbins — Baltimore Ravens
Entering his fourth season, Dobbins appears to be a top-five NFL running back talent.
Despite a 13-month absence stemming from a devastating knee injury and subsequent surgery, and not fully recovering, Dobbins dominated last season. He amassed 459 yards on 70 carries, averaging a remarkable 6.6 yards per carry in his final five games. Notably, he boasted a 43.4% juke rate despite practically playing with one leg.
How good is JK Dobbins, really?
Exhibit #50 from this crazy 2022 season, a complete free run for high-level DE Sam Hubbard.
Dobbins breaks the tackle, powers for a good gain, holds up vs a pile of defenders. Gets up, struts away.#RavensFlock #BaltimoreRavens pic.twitter.com/q9KZPivn9P— All 22 Films (@All_22_NFL_Cuts) January 29, 2023
Even more impressive, he thrived as the primary offensive weapon, with Baltimore’s passing game struggling in the absence of playmakers like Rashod Bateman and Lamar Jackson. Dobbins frequently carried the team in the absence of Jackson. With a rejuvenated offense, both in personnel and scheme, it’s plausible he finishes the season as a top-15 running back in both standard and point-per-reception (PPR) formats.
Bijan Robinson — Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson’s standout skill lies in his exceptional rushing ability, boasting a unique blend of power, speed, agility, and balance. This potent mix constantly threatens big plays. Additionally, he shines as a versatile receiver, elevating his worth in PPR leagues.
As a testament to his talent, Bijan Robinson was a first round pick in early best ball drafts and in dynasty fantasy football startups, even before his landing spot was known. With his confirmed top-10 draft position, he’s primed to dominate the fantasy landscape for the foreseeable future.
Last season, the Falcons notably stood out as a team heavily committed to running the ball, maintaining this strategy even when trailing. They ran it 48.8% of the time when losing, significantly higher than any other team.
This commitment to the ground game continued when Desmond Ridder became the starting quarterback, as a strong rushing attack provides valuable protection for an inexperienced passer. Consequently, Robinson is set to be the focal point of this offensive strategy.
The Falcons’ running back depth features the talented Tyler Allgeier and the experienced Cordarrelle Patterson. While Allgeier can offer Robinson some relief, it won’t hinder him from getting more than 20 touches per game. Despite being a rookie, Robinson has a solid chance to finish as the RB1.
Khalil Herbert — Chicago Bears
With David Montgomery leaving, Herbert takes the lead in Chicago’s backfield ahead of D’Onta Foreman and rookie running back Roschon Johnson. Herbert has shown elite production when on the field. However, concerns arise about his shared touches with Foreman and Johnson, along with Justin Fields potentially vulturing rushing touchdowns.
The fantasy impact of the Montgomery-Herbert transition may be most noticeable in the passing game. Herbert has only 153 career receiving yards and lacked a significant college-level receiving threat, whereas Montgomery excelled in this area. This preseason, Herbert’s involvement in the receiving game became evident, showcasing his ability after the catch on this play.
If you’re drafting Herbert in the ninth round, you likely already have a solid starting lineup and some reliable reserves. This average draft position (ADP) range often includes unproven receivers and touchdown-dependent tight ends, making Herbert a low-risk choice. But I won’t just leave you with a “what do you have to lose” argument.
Get ready for this. Could Herbert follow a similar path as Tony Pollard, but with less hype?
| Carries | Rush Yards |
Rush Touchdowns
|
|
| Khalil Herbert (His first and second seasons) | 232 | 1,164 | 6 |
| Tony Pollard (His second and third seasons) | 231 | 1,154 | 6 |
Both have the chance to establish themselves as every-down backs in the NFL in 2023. While Herbert’s pass-catching skills may not match Pollard’s, his ADP is lower by over 80 picks. Keep an eye on Herbert as a potential fantasy league winner
James Cook — Buffalo Bills
Last season, James Cook got just 89 carries and ended up as RB44. However, as the season progressed, Cook’s backfield snaps increased, reaching around 40% in the last seven games. This surge in playing time propelled him to RB25 in points per game. Even in a timeshare, Cook managed to put up impressive RB2-level stats.
But what’s truly remarkable is what Cook achieved with his limited carries. He led in breakaway run rate at 44% and maintained a solid 5.7 yards per carry average. Fantasy players were especially delighted by Cook’s involvement in the passing game, with a 27% target rate per route run, ranking him in the top five among all running backs.
At the NFL Combine, general manager Brandon Beane enthusiastically discussed Cook’s expanded role in the team, emphasizing that “We’re excited about James Cook, and looking forward to what he can do in year two, especially with an expanded workload and more touches.”
Heading into his second season, Cook’s fantasy prospects look promising. The addition of Damien Harris to the Bills’ roster and Nyheim Hines’ season-ending injury in a jet ski accident has opened up opportunities for Cook. Cook’s prowess in the passing game and knack for big plays alone makes him a solid RB2 option, even if he shares the workload almost equally with Harris. Think of the duo as a discount version of the Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram backfield New Orleans had several seasons ago.
Cam Akers — Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers has made an incredible recovery from an Achilles tear, an injury often career-ending. This rare feat is due to several factors: his high draft position, youth, and pre-injury athleticism. In his third year with the Rams, Akers posted career-best numbers, with 188 rushing attempts, 786 yards, and seven rushing touchdowns.
In PPR formats, Akers finished the year as the RB35 overall. His resurgence was most prominent from Weeks 13 to 18, ranking as RB4 in total points and RB6 in points per game.
Furthermore, head coach Sean McVay has a history of relying on feature backs. In the past, Todd Gurley averaged over 18 carries per game in 2017 and 2018, and in 2019, he averaged 14.9 carries. Over the last three seasons, the Rams had 29 instances of a rusher with 15 or more carries, and Akers was part of 13 of them.
Akers has been diligently working with new running back’s coach Ron Gould during the offseason to solidify his role as a three-down back. If he fully embraces this role, it could result in significant gains for the Rams’ offense and fantasy success for Akers’ managers.
In conclusion, these five breakout running backs have the potential to be game-changers for your fantasy football team. Don’t overlook them on draft day. If you have any questions or would simply like to talk about football, you can find me here.
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