9 Wide Receivers Set to Outperform ADP Rankings

Looking to gain an edge in your fantasy football drafts? Get ready to uncover the hidden gems among wide receivers who are poised to outshine our average draft position (ADP) rankings. In this article, we’ll delve into the world of fantasy football and highlight nine wide receivers who are primed to exceed expectations. Don’t miss out on elevating your team’s potential with these under-the-radar stars.

Before we begin, I’d like to disclose where I’m getting several of the numbers you will be seeing throughout the article. The ADP I will be using has been sourced from several drafts orchestrated in-house involving a wide range of fantasy managers. That data can be found here. Additionally, I will be citing Mike Clay’s (ESPN) projections sheet. The projections are skewed to the lower range of outcomes with anticipated missed games built in. The sheet can be found here. Without further delay, let’s dive into some players set to make a splash.

1) Deebo Samuel — San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 41.03 (WR18)

Now, you may have heard that Christian McCaffrey destroyed Deebo Samuel’s 2022 season and his future upside. These rumors were greatly exaggerated. His per-game target share was the only stat that took a major hit. Going from 26.3% to 23.5% once McCaffrey made it to town. Additionally, some other per-game stats that trended down include receiving touchdowns, going from 0.3 to 0.1, and rushing yards, going from 22.7 to 14. I believe that these stats can be chalked up to a small sample variance.

As for 2022, a musical chairs act was being exercised at the quarterback position in San Francisco. Going from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy in a single season would’ve been considered a death nail by anyone had they known about this before the season. As it turns out, Brock Purdy is the truth. With his quick decision-making and tendency to check down, Samuel should look to be fed targets once again in 2023. Proving to us all why he’s one of the best football players on the planet with the ball in his hands.

Ultimately, assuming his return and good health this season, Purdy becomes the linchpin for Samuel and the 49ers’ offensive lineup to excel back to the “YAC Boys” of old.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 215 PPR points (WR16)

2) Jerry Jeudy — Denver Broncos

ADP: 53.1 (WR23)

Jerry Jeudy’s 2022 stats, even on a per-game basis, fail to fully capture the remarkable impact he had as a receiver when he was in good health. He participated in a minimum of 60% of the snaps in 11 games the previous year, achieving a minimum of 14 points per reception (PPR) fantasy points in eight of them. His season kicked off with a strong performance against Seattle, amassing 20.2 fantasy points.

Notably, he concluded the year with an impressive five-game run, averaging 20.1 points per game (PPG). Furthermore, he came in at WR15 in median points per game. He also netted the 12th-best single-week performance by a wide receiver on the year, at 33.3 PPR points. With a revitalized Russell Wilson led by a new look modern offense, Jeudy should look to skyrocket up weekly rankings as the year goes on.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 208 PPR points (WR20)

3) Christian Watson — Green Bay Packers

ADP: 58.1 (WR25)

Last year, Christian Watson gained fame with a standout Senior Bowl and Combine performance. Concerns arose as injuries affected him early in the season. Yet, upon recovery, he showcased his talent, ranking fourth in yards after catch (YAC) per reception, trailing only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore and Jaylen Waddle. The injuries and boom-bust nature that defined his rookie year are evident in his Consistency Score, coming in at 3.14 (WR44 in the metric), sandwiched between Mecole Hardman and Mack Hollins.

Despite anticipated degradation of target quality, Watson is poised to shine in the new offense, maintaining his knack for astonishing plays. Remarkably, four of his seven rookie touchdowns came from throws spanning 14+ air yards, positioning him in the top 10 among wide receivers. Watson boasts significant upside, making him a very viable pick as a WR2/3 in your drafts.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 209 PPR points (WR18)

4) Tyler Lockett — Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 72.35 (WR32)

Speaking of boom-bust players, let’s talk about Tyler Lockett, the poster boy of the phrase. Lockett’s optimal outcome here is mirroring last year’s stats: 84 catches, 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns from 117 targets. He’s consistent, usually hitting nine to 10 touchdowns with reliable weekly performance. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though promising, won’t steal much, if any, of Lockett’s targets. Why is that, you may ask? Well, last year, Seattle’s wide receivers beyond Lockett and Metcalf saw 75 targets, while the top three TEs had 135. Smith-Njigba is more likely to impact this number than eat into Lockett’s targets.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 197 PPR points  (WR29)

5) Mike Evans — Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP: 75.16 (WR33)

Mike Evans has an impressively consistent streak of nine 1,000-yard seasons. Additionally, he leads all wide receivers in games played since 2014. He also ranks third in receiving yards, trailing DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. He truly is a pillar of consistency, coming in at 5.25 in Consistency Score in 2022

Approaching 30, Evans confronts hurdles like a new quarterback and historical age-related drops in production for wideouts. The debate revolves around his adjusted draft position, factoring in risks like age-related decline and adapting to a new quarterback. Overall, the community may have overreacted, causing Evans’ draft placement to drop. The ADP reflects the risk of age-related decline and a quarterback downgrade. While his 1,000-yard streak could be at risk, and he might lack the highest ceiling compared to similar options, he still offers value at his current draft position.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 205 PPR points (WR21)

6) Diontae Johnson — Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: 75.16 (WR34)

Diontae Johnson fell short of his WR15 ADP, ending as WR39 in 2022’s 17-game season. Clearly, he disappointed. Yet, optimism exists for his resurgence. His fantasy struggle last year mainly stemmed from low touchdown production, breaking the record for most targets without a touchdown at 147. Now, Johnson shines as an excellent choice at WR34 in ADP. With substantial volume, he’s poised to meet expectations and potentially break into the top-24 at the position once again.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 205 PPR points (WR22)

7) Brandin Cooks — Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 95.32 (WR42)

Brandin Cooks remains a steady wide receiver, excelling in various roles all over the field. Once a deep threat, he’s expanded to dominate on short and intermediate routes. Recent quarterback struggles from his time in Houston affected his fantasy output, despite being their bona fide WR1. Now, second to CeeDee Lamb, he could thrive in the Cowboys’ efficient passing game. Therefore, vacated targets and limited competition for them outside of Michael Gallup create a perfect storm for a concentrated pass attack. In my opinion, you can draft Cooks with confidence in Round 8 as a WR3 with WR2 potential.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 190 PPR points (WR32)

8) Michael Thomas — New Orleans Saints

ADP: 100.26 (WR44)

Over the past five seasons, Thomas has consistently ranked among the top three wide receivers in key stats: targets (9.6), receptions (7.9), yards (89.0), and PPR points (19.6) per game. Although touchdowns were his weaker area, he still managed 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game, tying for 12th among 139 wide receivers with over 40 games played.

However, his outstanding achievements mostly occurred around five years ago. Recent years were marred by high-ankle sprains, hamstring issues, and a setback in ankle injury rehab, causing him to miss significant game time. Despite these setbacks, he showcased his upside in the three games of 2022, averaging 17.0 receiving PPR points per game, the ninth-highest in a limited sample. The good news is Thomas is on track for a full recovery after participating in minicamps, ready to shine in the upcoming season.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 173 PPR points (WR40)

9) Skyy Moore — Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 128.61 (WR54)

Contrary to popular belief, labeling Skyy Moore as a poor player isn’t accurate. Last season, he ranked 50th in receiving grade, 49th in yards per route run, and sixth in YAC per reception out of 115 wide receivers with 30+ targets, as per PFF data. While his YAC stats stand out, his other metrics are not extraordinary, but they aren’t abysmal either.

Optimally, as he gets more playing time in his second year, Moore can reach the high-end potential we hoped for alongside Patrick Mahomes. Consider taking him in the 10th round as a stash and keep him on your bench. If Moore performs well this year, he could offer exceptional value in fantasy football.

Mike Clay’s 2023 Projection: 167 PPR points (WR43)

In the realm of fantasy football, uncovering hidden gems is a thrilling pursuit. These nine wide receivers, poised to outshine their ADP rankings, hold the promise of transforming your team’s fortunes. As always, trust your instincts, dig deep into their stats, and consider their potential upside.

Remember, fantasy success often comes from those who defy expectations. So keep an eye on these receivers as draft day approaches, and don’t hesitate to snatch them up before others catch on. Stay ahead of the game and watch your fantasy season light up with unexpected brilliance from these standout players.

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