Fantasy Football Outlook

Arthur Juan Brown, better known as AJ to us football fans, has had a great career up to this point, and all signs point to him continuing his dominance. He burst onto the scene as a Tennessee Titans rookie, posting a 1,051-yard season with 8 touchdowns on only 52 receptions. He followed that up with two more highly efficient seasons, solidifying his stature as a quality fantasy option.          

In 2022, Brown was headed into the last year of his rookie deal when the NFL world got a jolt of excitement in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Titans surprised us all by trading Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles. Brown couldn’t have asked for a better outcome because shortly after the trade, the Eagles signed Brown to a 4-yr $100 million deal. He rewarded them with a career year, going 88-1,496-11 en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Brown is primed and ready to run it back, aching to redeem himself and the Eagles. Fantasy managers, the world over, will welcome that effort with open arms as it means fantasy gold.       

2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Brown enters the 2023 season as the lead receiving option for a team that, last year, finished 3rd in yards per game (385.8), 2nd in points per game (29.1), and 1st in TDs per game (3.6). Brown has always been a high-efficiency player, having never eclipsed 70 receptions before last year. Now, he’s getting the volume to put up elite wide receiver numbers.

The Eagles’ offense returns with no significant changes to their personnel outside of Miles Sanders’ departure and the signing of Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift, so there’s no reason to believe Brown’s role or involvement should change. Philadelphia has some great secondary options with Devonta Smith coming into his own as a high-end wide receiver, Dallas Goedert commanding a mid-field, pass-catching role, and Hurts always a threat to extend plays and rush for significant yards and touchdowns. Despite all that and a rush-first mentality that placed the Eagles 4th in rush play percentage (49.74%), Brown can still be relied on for 130+ targets, roughly 80 receptions, and 8+ touchdowns. He is always a big play threat that keeps the defense honest, and he’s just as valuable in standard formats as he is in PPR leagues.

Brown is currently being drafted as the WR7 (17th overall) in half PPR scoring according to our latest rankings. He is regularly a second-round pick in Redraft and a great option as your number-one wide receiver if you go in a different direction in the first, or an even better WR2 if you’re fortunate enough to take an elite receiver with your first-round pick. The only thing that caps his upside and prevents him from jumping into the first round in ADP is the fact that the Eagles are a run-heavy team, and if they get down close to the endzone, it usually ends with a Hurts’ plunge for a touchdown. Other than that, he’s precisely the type of reliable WR1 with big-play upside that you can feel great about as you navigate the remainder of your draft.

Dynasty Outlook

Brown is entering his fifth year in the league at age 26. He still has several years of elite production ahead of him as he comes into year two of his four-year contract. As long as he is tied to Jalen Hurts, Nick Sirianni, and the Eagles, he is as reliable as it comes for a WR1. Even if he does sign with a different team, he’ll still hold high-end value.

According to our latest 2023 Dynasty Rankings, Brown is our consensus WR4, being drafted 7th overall in dynasty startups. He is exactly what you want to build your dynasty team around: youth, elite talent, stability, guaranteed involvement, and past success.

If you’re a contending team, you’re hoping and praying that Brown is on a rebuilding team so you can try and pry him away for rookies and picks. Additionally, if he’s on a contender, you’re more likely to hit the lottery than being able to trade for Brown. If you’re in a rebuild, he can be your foundation moving forward, or he can net you a haul; it’s really up to you how you plan to rebuild. 

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