Antonio Gibson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Fantasy Football Outlook
The 2023 season is looking like an interesting season for the running back position. Dynasty fantasy football managers who look to fade the position may be at the advantage unless you’re in win-now mode. We’re at an interesting time for fantasy football purposes as such a high percentage of the elite backs are 27 or older:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Austin Ekeler
- Derrick Henry
- Alvin Kamara
- Nick Chubb
- Joe Mixon
- Aaron Jones
- James Conner
- Dalvin Cook
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Leonard Fournette
Typically, 27-year-old backs are hard to trade. And by age 28, it is more likely than not that production falls off a cliff. That means that a couple of the backs I named, not even including Elliott or Fournette, will be shells of themselves by this time next year.
Enter Antonio Gibson. Yes, he is already 25. However, he is a talented back with a new OC that has finished in the top 13 total PPG for running backs in two of the last three seasons. Last year was his worst finish at RB28 in total PPG, but I believe he was underused and in the dog house from the previous regime. Brian Robinson was the shiny new toy and an amazing story but disappointed with 3.9 YPC.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
Personally, I still can’t help but think of 2022 and how Josh Jacobs was coming off of 3 years as a top-14 fantasy running back but was getting absolutely no respect. 2021 was a down year for Jacobs as he failed to eclipse 1,000 yards for the only time in his career. Then, he finished with 872 rushing yards but finished with a career-high 54 receptions in 2021. Josh McDaniels took over in 2022 and everyone was down on Jacobs because McDaniels was thought to prefer an RBBC. A year later and it’s easy to see that McDaniels saw the talent in Jacobs and proved that Jon Gruden was missing him.
Antonio Gibson had a career-low of 546 rushing yards last year, after eclipsing 1,000 yards the season prior. Additionally, he had a career-high of 46 receptions last year. Scott Turner was the OC the last two seasons and the new OC Eric Bieniemy will see the players on this offense with fresh eyes and is likely to see Gibson as the more explosive back that he is. Starting to sound familiar? No, I am not saying that Gibson is going to finish as the RB3 in 2023, but I am saying that I think he is being given the Rodney Dangerfield treatment much like Jacobs was getting this time last year.
2023 Projections
J.D. McKissic is gone which leaves 27 receptions from last year on the table. Moving forward, I don’t see Brian Robinson or Chris Gonzalez as a significant threat. Robinson only had 9 catches last season and Rodriguez only had 5 catches last year at Kentucky. I expect nearly all those targets to go to Gibson, which gives him a chance to get 73 catches next year.
Last year, Fournette finished with 73 catches behind only Ekeler (107) and McCaffrey (85). Fournette got 668 rushing yards in 2022, which was only about 100 more yards than Gibson last year. Furthermore, Fournette’s average YPC was 7.2 which is Gibson’s career average. All this to say, it seems like a fairly bold prediction that Gibson could finish as a top-20 running back. He has done it twice before and it feels like there is an opportunity for a clean slate in Washington with a new OC in Eric Bieniemey and a new team owner in Josh Harris.
In our 2023 fantasy football PPR rankings, Gibson is going off the board as the RB32. Needless to say, that’s a massive difference. Overall, Gibson could end up being a fantastic value this year.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Personally, I believe Gibson has a ceiling around a low-end RB1. As mentioned before, this is a very solid value for the 2023 season. However, in dynasty fantasy football leagues, things are a bit different.
If you can get Gibson for an early 2nd round pick, I think he can help you win this year. After that, next year there is a good chance you can flip him for what you paid, or maybe even a late 1st round pick if he finishes near his ceiling.
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