Beat The Breakout: Rookie Wide Receiver Early Season Production
In the past, it was a common sentiment that “Rookie wide receivers don’t break out until their third year in the league”. However, with the NFL shifting to be more pass friendly, that is no longer true. Most wide receivers that will have long-term dynasty value will have immediate production in their rookie season.
I analyzed the first eight games of rookie wide receivers drafted in the first 3 Rounds of the NFL Draft from 2016-2021. What I found are certain thresholds that need to be hit for sustained success in the NFL.
Great/Elite
- 50+ Rec. Yards Per/G
- 4+ Rec. Per/G
| Player Name | Rec. Yards Per/G | Rec. Per/G |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 98.3 | 4.8 |
| Justin Jefferson | 78.4 | 4.3 |
| Michael Thomas | 71.6 | 5.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 65.5 | 5 |
| Terry McLaurin | 65.4 | 4 |
| Tee Higgins | 61 | 4.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 60.5 | 3.8 |
| Marquise Brown | 59.6 | 3.8 |
| Calvin Ridley | 57.9 | 4.1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 53 | 4 |
| Chase Claypool | 55.5 | 3.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 53 | 3 |
| DeVonta Smith | 52.6 | 4.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 51.6 | 6 |
| Rashod Bateman | 50.5 | 4 |
| DK Metcalf | 50.3 | 2.9 |
Good/Great
- 30-49 Rec. Yards Per/G
- 3 Rec. Per/G
| Player Name | Rec. Yards Per/G | Rec. Per/G |
| Will Fuller | 48.6 | 3.3 |
| Sterling Shepherd | 48 | 4.3 |
| Mecole Hardman | 46.8 | 2.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 46.4 | 3.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 46.3 | 3.3 |
| Corey Coleman | 44.8 | 3.3 |
| Kadarius Toney | 43.6 | 3.9 |
| AJ Brown | 43.5 | 2.8 |
| Denzel Mims | 42.8 | 3 |
| Kenny Golladay | 42.5 | 2.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 42.4 | 3.8 |
| Anthony Miller | 41.5 | 3 |
| Michael Pittman | 41.3 | 2.8 |
| Rondale Moore | 40.9 | 3.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 40.5 | 2.1 |
| Laviska Shenault | 40.4 | 3.8 |
| Jalen Reagor | 37.8 | 2.7 |
| Diontae Johnson | 37.4 | 3.3 |
| DJ Moore | 37.1 | 2.4 |
| Tyler Boyd | 35.4 | 3.1 |
| KJ Hamler | 34.4 | 2.8 |
| Elijah Moore | 34.3 | 3.1 |
| Josh Doctson | 33 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 32 | 3.1 |
| Henry Ruggs | 32 | 1.7 |
| Michael Gallup | 30.1 | 1.6 |
Outlook Not Good
- 0-29 Yds/G
- 1 Rec/G
| Player Name | Rec. Yards Per/G | Rec. Per/G |
| Nico Collins | 28.5 | 2.3 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | 26.8 | 1.5 |
| Bryan Edwards | 24.8 | 1.3 |
| Dante Pettis | 23.1 | 1.4 |
| Taywan Taylor | 21.8 | 1.4 |
| Zay Jones | 21 | 2 |
| DJ Chark | 19.9 | 1.5 |
| Parris Campbell | 19.2 | 2.5 |
| Miles Boykin | 16.4 | 1.1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 16.1 | 1.4 |
| N’Keal Harry | 15.7 | 1.7 |
| Van Jefferson | 15.1 | 1.1 |
| Terrace Marshall | 14.5 | 1.8 |
| Josh Palmer | 13 | 1.1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 12.8 | 0.9 |
| Andy Isabella | 12 | 0.4 |
| Braxton Miller | 10.9 | 1.8 |
| Mike Williams | 10.9 | 1.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 10.4 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 10.1 | 1 |
| James Washington | 8.3 | 0.9 |
| Dwayne Eskridge | 7.1 | 1.1 |
| Amara Darboh | 6.9 | 0.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6.7 | 1 |
| John Ross | 6 | 0.5 |
| Amari Rodgers | 5 | 0.4 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Leonte Carroo | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 0 |
The data shows some outliers in each tier, but it gives a general idea of thresholds you want to see your rookie wide receivers hit early in the season. Use this information to target (or trade away) the rookies in your leagues.
Check back in Week 8 of this season to see what we find out about the 2022 class.
Follow me on Twitter and Instagram @DynastyABee and check out my work at alexbrunsen.com.
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