Christmas Day NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 16 (2023)

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Christmas is here, meaning we have three Monday games this year. Our early game is between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. The second matchup is between NFC East division rivals, as the New York Giants face the Philadelphia Eagles. The final contest is between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers in a potential Super Bowl LVIII matchup.

Typically, I gave my five favorite prop bets for the Monday night game. However, in the spirit of Christmas, I have six prop bets this week, with one for each team playing on Monday. Let’s dive into it!

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Davante Adams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The 2023 season hasn’t been a simple one for Adams. Despite playing with multiple sub-par quarterbacks, the superstar wide receiver has averaged 69.1 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he is 32 yards away from his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. While the veteran had a few frustrating weeks earlier in the year, Adams has been playing well lately. The wide receiver has averaged 79 receiving yards per game over the past five contests, totaling 73 or more in all but one matchup.

Kansas City has had one of the top defenses in the NFL this season. They have surrendered the seventh-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers, giving up 133.4 per game. However, the Chiefs have had mixed results with opposing No. 1 wide receivers. L’Jarius Sneed is playing like an All-Pro cornerback. However, Adams had 73 receiving yards on five receptions in the Week 12 matchup against the Chiefs. Expect a similar result on Monday.

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)

Mahomes isn’t having the year many expected. The superstar quarterback has been outstanding during his time as the starter. He averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game over his first five seasons as the starting quarterback. However, the former Texas Tech star has averaged 1.8 passing touchdowns per game in 2023. Yet, Mahomes still ranks fifth in the NFL with 25 passing touchdowns. He has thrown two or more passing scores in 64.3% of the games this year, including four of the past six.

When Mahomes faced the Raiders in Week 12, the superstar quarterback had nearly three passing yards and two touchdowns in the win. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has held opposing quarterbacks to 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. However, they’ve faced several backup or below-average passers this season. Yet, the Raiders have struggled against talented quarterbacks. They have surrendered two or more passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in three of their past four contests.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week, Barkley had only nine rushing attempts for 14 yards against a talented New Orleans Saints run defense. However, the superstar running back has averaged 72.5 rushing yards per game this year. He has been even better since returning from the high ankle sprain, averaging 83.6 rushing yards per game. Barkley had at least 66 rushing yards in seven of eight games since returning from the injury before last week’s matchup against New Orleans.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have had one of the top run defenses in the NFL this season. They have surrendered 72.4 rushing yards per game to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. However, Philadelphia’s run defense has struggled lately, surrendering 106.2 rushing yards per game since their Week 10 bye, giving up 92 or more in every contest. Philadelphia has the ninth-highest explosive run rate allowed (5.8%) and the third-lowest stuff rate (39.1%) since their bye week (per Fantasy Points Data).

Boston Scott to Score Anytime Touchdown (+260)

The last time Scott found the end zone on offense was in Week 18 last year. Ironically, that game was against the Giants in a meaningless contest for New York. However, Scott has a history of being a Giants killer! He has scored 10 offensive touchdowns in eight career games against the NFC East division rivals. The veteran running back has had at least one rushing touchdown in all but one career game against the Giants, including five straight matchups.

New York has struggled to keep opposing running backs out of the end zone in 2023. They have given up 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the fifth-most in the NFL. Opposing running backs have scored at least one rushing touchdown against the Giants in 64.3% of their matchups. Last year, the Eagles had five rushing touchdowns in the two matchups against the NFC East division rivals, including two by Scott. It’s Christmas – do you believe in miracles?

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Isaiah Likely Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, the Ravens lost Mark Andrews to a season-ending injury in the Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. While the loss of the superstar is significant, Baltimore has arguably the best No. 2 tight end in the league. Likely hasn’t had a meaningful role on offense until Andrews got hurt. However, he has been outstanding lately. Over the past three weeks, the second-year tight end has averaged 64.3 receiving yards per game, totaling 40 or more every contest.

While the 49ers’ offense is led by current MVP frontrunner Brock Purdy, the team’s defense has been excellent in 2023. They have held tight ends to the eighth-fewest receiving yards, giving up only 41.9 per game. However, San Francisco has failed to slow down tight ends lately. Over the past five weeks, tight ends have averaged 71 receiving yards per game against the 49ers, totaling 55 or more in all but one contest. Last week, they gave up 102 receiving yards to Trey McBride.

George Kittle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anyone with George Kittle on their fantasy football knows the tight end can have massive performances and awful ones. The superstar tight end has averaged 61.8 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 54 or more in 64.3% of the contests. More importantly, he has been on fire after starting the year slowly. Kittle has averaged 81.1 receiving yards per game over his past eight contests, totaling 54 or more in all but one matchup.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have had one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. They have surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks, giving up 208.1 per game. Furthermore, Baltimore has given up only 42.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends, ranking as the 10th-fewest in the NFL. However, tight ends have averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game against the Ravens over the past three weeks, totaling 68 or more in twice.

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