Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Fantasy Football (Week 16)

For this Week 16 edition of Keep Trade Cut at Faceoff Sports Network, the discussion is all about assets to compete with for the next couple of weeks, as well as next season. In this series, we look at three similarly ranked players for dynasty fantasy football. This week, we’ll be looking at wide receivers putting up big seasons in Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Calvin Ridley.

Weekly during the 2023 NFL season, we’ve looked at a trio of players who are valued back to back to back in a set of dynasty rankings. With those rankings, we discuss who in that trio should be considered worth keeping, trading, or be the “cut” of the group.  No, you won’t actually be cutting that player in most dynasty leagues, but the purpose of this exercise is to decide who will have the most value with a look to the future. Let’s get to it.

Keep Trade Cut

For this exercise, the keeper is a player who can sustain their current value for this season and future seasons. In other words, the player who should be valued most by managers or potential managers. The player worth trading is a player whose value may be buoyed by unsustainable value. That, or they are holding a level of value that could be more useful to move along in a trade, based on your team’s current outlook. Finally, the “cut” in this scenario is a player who is trending down or has the potential for a rapidly changing future outlook, therefore making that player the least valuable asset in the trio.

Heading into Week 16, we’ll take a look at a set of rankings from footballguys.com and discuss the current WR32, WR33, and WR34.

Keep: WR32 Deebo Samuel

We begin with a dual fantasy threat and our keep of the week in the form of San Fransisco’s Deebo Samuel. Samuel’s red zone efficiency and role security are what make him the top player in this trio, as well as his comparative youth. Samuel is tied with Calvin Ridley on this list with eight red zone receptions in 2023, while Samuel leads the trio with six red zone touchdowns overall. He is the only player in the trio under contract with their current team for the 2024 season, and Samuel will return to his premier role in the 49ers offense next year.

Overall, Samuel has seen his touches and impact be steady the last few weeks as he’s registered two 100-yard outings and five overall touchdowns from Week 13 on. He is showing his worth to the 49ers offense and fantasy lineups and should continue this trend as long as he’s healthy.

Trade: WR33 Mike Evans

The trade of the week is Mike Evans, a player who has been very productive in what could be his final Buccaneers season. Evans is giving managers a top 10 fantasy season, he has seen a resurgence in value that has made him a savvy fantasy buy all season. He’s been a red zone threat and feature target in this offense, leading this trio with 115 targets on the season, more than Ridley’s 109 and Samuel’s 69.

Evans has 11 receiving touchdowns on his way to a top-10 fantasy output at wide receiver. He’s been a great fantasy player in 2023, but with uncertainty towards his possible next team and immediate future, now or soon may be the time to capitalize and build up with youthful replacements once again.

Evans shouldn’t be a difficult sell this offseason, especially with contenders in mind. He’s produced throughout his career with multiple different quarterbacks, and if Evans finds a new situation or even re-signs, he should be expected to have good numbers. However he will be 31 at the start of next season, and while his production may fit some timelines, Evans’ high current value may be smart to move on from now before his age starts to show. Evans is a sell candidate who should already be off rebuilding rosters, but he should see his trade value stay with him throughout the 2024 offseason.

Cut: WR34 Calvin Ridley

Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Calvin Ridley has had an up-and-down season in a year where his managers had high expectations early. He started the season with his highest catch total on the season, coming down with eight grabs, 101 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1 against Indianapolis. In the 13 following games, he’s produced only two other 100+ yard receiving games.

Ridley has been healthy in 2023 and while he has seen a multitude of targets, it just hasn’t resulted in consistent fantasy production. From Week 13 through Week 15, he’s seen 33 targets while only producing 118 yards in those three games. Hopefully, Ridley can show a bit more in the playoff weeks while Christian Kirk is out, but Ridley may be an asset to move on from this offseason.

Ridley has seen targets in Jacksonville but his role hasn’t been explosive for fantasy, as he’s only been a top 12 option four weeks in half-ppr formats in 2023. Depending on where he goes next offseason, Ridley could see his role settle in more as a second or third option in an offense. If he stays in Jacksonville, we’ll be hoping to see more comfort and production in the offense heading into the 2024 season.

Now may be a good time to see what managers in your league would pay for Ridley, even if he finishes the season strong. Getting an early second or some youthful pivot such as Josh Downs for Ridley to a hopeful manager may be the best way to get some more long-term upside on your roster. The short-term window of Ridley returning to the top 12 fantasy wide receiver seems to currently be closed.

These older wide receiver outlooks aren’t always easy to predict when they begin to change teams and find new homes. We’ve seen up and down weeks in both Baltimore and Tennessee with Odell Beckham Jr. and Deandre Hopkins respectively, in 2023. It all comes down to role and volume in the offense, difficult things to project when players head to a new system.

Hopefully, a player like Ridley can find a situation and begin to consistently produce, and this isn’t to say Mike Evans is done producing either. They both likely will, but their advanced ages and decent market value make them intriguing dynasty sells at this time. While they have a lot of questions about their respective futures, Samuel’s offensive upside is clear and will likely continue for the next few years in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

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