Thanks for reading our Sunday Night Football FanDuel DFS column. This is a quick-hitting piece where we set our ideal lineup for a single game. This week we have the Dallas Cowboys against the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s make some money with Cowboys @ Vikings: NFL Sunday Night FanDuel Picks.
As we entered Week 8, many were anticipating Sunday night’s matchup, in what was meant to be a thriller between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. But Prescott is trending towards missing the game, as Dallas looks to keep him healthy as they are the favorite to win the NFC East and need Prescott in their playoff run. Not great for fantasy, but probably the smart move for Dallas overall.
The impact of this has been felt in the Vegas odds, with the line dropping from 54.5 to 51.5 by the time this article was written. Further, the spread shifted from -2.5 in Dallas’ favor to Minnesota covering the -2.5 spread. Those are significant shifts from a single absence and that impact will be felt in DFS lineups as well.
This ideal lineup assumes Dak Prescott does not play, as that is the most likely scenario, with Mike McCarthy recognizing we’re only on game seven of 17 (unless you ask Micah Parsons who is aiming for 20 games).
Ideal Lineup
Justin Jefferson ($12,000 – MVP 1.5x)
This thinking is simple. When setting these single-game lineups, we want to put the player we think will score the most points in our MVP spot. With Dallas coming into the week giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards and the third-most passing yards, I’m targeting the most talented Vikings’ receiver in Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson is averaging around seven receptions and 90 yards per game. He’s had three games with at least 10 targets and in matchups against bottom 10 pass defenses, he’s hit 100 receiving yards each time. Jefferson always has the potential for 100 yards and two touchdowns, which would stamp his spot as the number one FanDuel player in this matchup.
Kirk Cousins ($15,000)
Here we want to take advantage of the stack opportunity with Jefferson, but also, Kirk Cousins has the potential for 25+ point games on any given week. He’s already achieved this threshold three times this season while having zero rushing upside. If you’re riding Jefferson, Cousins will be the one making those passes and is a near requirement for this matchup.
Dalton Schultz ($10,000)
With Dalton Schultz, we get into the most likely game plan for Dallas with a backup quarterback. Backups trend towards targeting number one receivers and short-throw targets in an effort to simplify the offense and avoid mistakes. While that potentially bods well for either CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper, I want to focus on the short-throw opportunities, as that was Dallas’ approach last season without Prescott.
Schultz has an average depth of target (ADOT) of six yards, whereas no Dallas receiver has an ADOT under 10 yards. This signals a potential for a significant target share, as Dallas attempts to dink their way downfield. It also means Schultz is a prominent target in the red zone, providing touchdown opportunities to boost his upside.
Additionally, Minnesota gives up an average of 14.4 yards per reception to tight ends and the best tight end they’ve matched up against this year is TJ Hockenson.
Tony Pollard ($8,500)
A similar principle applies here with Tony Pollard. While this season is different, with a healthy offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott running stronger when Prescott was out last season we saw many manufactured touches for Pollard, who would get the ball of jet sweeps and short passes. And while Elliott has more targets, Pollard has more yards after catch (YAC) and more total receiving yards.
While Minnesota is one of the worst rushing defenses, which in general favors Elliott over Pollard, I expect Dallas to be playing from behind, and thus staying involved in the passing game.
K.J. Osborn ($8,000)
I always try to pick a sleeper in these single-game lineups but finding low-value players with a high ceiling is challenging in this game, because there is simply so much talent that there is less opportunity for a fourth or fifth string receiver to pop off. That said, I’m a fan of K.J. Osborn who on three occasions has five receptions for at least 75 yards and has caught a touchdown on two of those opportunities.
With people likely targeting Dalvin Cook, Lamb, and Cooper, Osborn could make his way into the top five scorers in this matchup. Alternatively, you could sub in Adam Thielen ($11,000) and just go all in on the top Minnesota receivers, since with this lineup you have the extra salary space.
Lastly, if Prescott plays, I’d likely substitute Elliott for Pollard. My assumption is that Dallas would still want to protect Prescott, so may rely more heavily on the run and short throws to limit any exposure to the quarterback.
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