Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check out everything from Week 8 in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 8.
Week 8 saw disparate fantasy outcomes across the league. As I reviewed my fantasy leagues at the end of the day, it appeared as if players either had big, 20+ point performances or barely showed up to play. This was evidenced by five games decided by at least 10 points, and four games that had high-scoring potential instead play out as defensive battles. Despite that, several players stood out as prominent starters moving forward, raising their profile as fantasy managers continue crunching for playoffs, which begin in five to six weeks depending on your league.
Risers
Michael Carter
(RB1, 15 carries, 77 yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions, 95 yards, 32.2 PPR points)
The rookie out of North Carolina has been seeing steady in both usage and production, and that finally led to a ceiling game on Sunday, with Michael Carter ending at the number one running back in fantasy and is likely to keep that ranking through Monday night. Carter saw a high of 19 touches in Week 7, after recording 11 carries and seven receptions, but surpassed that on Sunday with a total of 25 touches, tied for fourth-most in the league on Sunday.
He also made effective use of those touches, averaging around five YPC and 10 yards perception. Notably, for fantasy purposes, he averaged 1.3 fantasy points per touch, demonstrating the upside provided by his increased usage. Carter will unlikely score a touchdown every week but is putting in his application for RB1 status in fantasy lineups.
Michael Pittman Jr.
(WR3, 10 receptions, 86 yards, 2 TDs, 30.6 PPR points)
I’ll admit I’ve been skeptical of Michael Pittman, but he is quickly becoming a high-end WR2 in a Colts offense that trends towards a more run-heavy approach. Their success in the run game is largely what worries me about Pittman, but he has easily led the team in targets, with 50 total targets through week eight. The second most targets by a Colts wide receiver comes from Zach Pascal at 35.
Sunday demonstrated that the Colts can be effective in the air. That said, Tennessee is a bottom 10 pass offense, but Pittman has shown the ability to perform against tough defenses, putting up 20 fantasy points on the Rams in Week 2. Pittman will likely have some down weeks throughout the remainder of the season, but overall, he should be a reliable WR2 or Flex play.
Elijah Mitchell
(RB8, 18 carries, 137 yards, 1 TD, 19.7 points)
The San Francisco rookie is not particularly a secret at this point, but there’s been a sense of “wait and see” with how he would ultimately be utilized in this offense. It is not typical for Kyle Shanahan to rely so heavily on a single running back, but this is Mitchell’s fourth week with at least 17 carries in five starts. He is getting the volume fantasy managers crave in a starting running back, and has the efficiency to go with it, averaging 5.3 YPC.
It is probably too late to target Mitchell if you missed him early on, but if he has a down week, consider targeting him in a trade when his value is low.
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Fallers
Antonio Gibson
(RB31, 8 carries, 34 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 8.4 PPR points)
I have been avoiding including Antonio Gibson in this portion of the column for a few weeks now. Some of that is because I wanted to account for the fact that Gibson has been struggling through injury and that Gibson is frequently in a negative game script because Washington’s defense is so bad. But this week struck a different note with me, as Jaret Patterson had the most carries among Washington running backs this week.
Maybe this is a continued reality of Washington trying to limit Gibson’s usage to allow time to heal, but this decision raises some major questions for me. I’m not sure if Gibson’s injury is worse than Washington is letting on or if they have resigned themselves to a rebuilding season, but Gibson’s usage spells trouble for fantasy managers. Perhaps he continues to get healthy and comes back in the latter stages of the season, but for now, Gibson can remain on benches.
Marvin Jones Jr.
(WR52, 5 receptions, 35 yards, 8.5 PPR points)
Marvin Jones began the season with three consecutive double-digit fantasy performances but has failed to do so in three of his last four starts. When Jones has been targeted at least eight times he’s surpassed 10 fantasy points, but this was a downturn for the veteran receiver.
While this may be typical volatility we can expect in fantasy, particularly for a player catching passes from a rookie quarterback, it is notable that Jones wasn’t even top three in targets for Jacksonville. Jamal Agnew, Dan Arnold, and Carlos Hyde all had more targets than Jones on Sunday. Perhaps Seattle is just effective at covering Jones, but it’s worth keeping track of Jones’ usage moving forward.
DeVonta Smith
(WR85, 1 reception, 15 yards, 2.5 PPR points)
The Philadelphia offense is one of the larger mysteries right now, as one week after placing their top running back on IR they rush for over 200 yards as a team and complete zero passing touchdowns yet dominate the Detroit Lions. Based on this matchup, it’s hard to gain any information on the Eagles’ strategy moving forward, but what we have learned is that this offense is not the fantasy gold mine many have hoped for.
Perhaps one of the biggest disappointments about Philadelphia’s approach is that it prevents us from seeing the full potential of DeVonta Smith. We know Smith is going to be a rockstar, both in fantasy and real football, but he is trending towards a year two breakout candidate, in an offense that only completed nine passes on Sunday.
It is unlikely Philadelphia will pass that little moving forward, but even with increased volume, Smith hasn’t given us the ceiling we’d like to see yet. Plus, with Jalen Hurts rushing for 50 yards for the fourth time, those passing opportunities for Smith are hard to predict.
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Dynasty Stashes
Jaret Patterson
(RB46, 10 carries, 42 yards, 4.2 points)
While Patterson’s usage is a worrying sign for managers of Antonio Gibson, I was glad to see some regular season play from the rookie out of Buffalo. Patterson caught my attention during the pre-season, where he got 28 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown (Source: The Football Database), but there’s always a question with pre-season scouts about how that will translate to long-term performance.
With Sunday’s performance, Patterson demonstrated solid efficiency against a Broncos defense that is top 10 against the rush. Unless Gibson is benched to recover from injury, I wouldn’t expect Patterson to continue this usage, but he could be an interesting watch during the off-season to see if he remains in Washington or gets an opportunity elsewhere.
Brevin Jordan
(TE5, 3 receptions, 1 TD, 13.1 PPR points)
In leagues where the tight end position still exists, finding talent at this chronically shallow position is a never-ending battle. This is why fantasy managers tend to bandwagon around the next great tight end. Brevin Jordan made his first appearance on Sunday in a blowout game that ended with plenty of fourth-quarter junk time.
Jordan played early in the game, but really got most of his opportunities in the last couple of drives when the game was long over. While there’s plenty of hedging to do around the context of Jordan’s appearance (he was likely playing the Rams’ second and third-string defense), anytime a player takes advantage of opportunities is worth noting.
Jordan is potentially the definition of a dynasty stash, as he will unlikely be startable in 2021 and perhaps even 2022. But we’ve seen that tight ends often need a couple of years to develop into more prominent offensive forces, and Brevin Jordan provides an early investment opportunity.
Notable Targets
T.J. Hockenson, 11 targets: The Detroit Lions tight end has a strong start to the season, but then saw a downturn in Weeks 3-5, where he failed to hit 10 fantasy points on any of those occasions, while his target share also decreased. Since then, Hockenson is averaging 10 targets per game and consistently puts up double-digit fantasy points when targeted at least nine times. Hopefully, this is a sign of more to come, as Hockenson entered 2021 as a likely top-five tight end.
Dan Arnold, 10 targets: The potential that Carolina did not see is now becoming realized by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been making a concerted effort to get Dan Arnold involved in the passing game. This week he ended as the second-best fantasy tight end through Sunday and was the second most targeted player in Jacksonville’s offense. He is only rostered in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, so if you’re hurting for a tight end, Arnold is seeing the usage to provide a steady floor.
Dallas Goedert, 7 targets: While this isn’t a particularly astounding target share from the Philadelphia tight end, it is significant because of the context surrounding Dallas Goedert, who led the team in targets on Sunday. All other Eagles’ wide receivers combined for seven targets. In fact, if you include Jack Stoll’s target, the Eagles tight end combined for the same number of targets as all other Eagles players combined. Again, this is in part because of their run-heavy strategy on Sunday, but is worth monitoring, particularly if you’re invested in this talented receiving core.
Khalil Herbert, 25 touches: Going into this week, many were wondering if the workload for Khalil Herbert would remain consistent after he rushed for 100 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week answered that question, as Herbert rushed 23 times and caught two passes, totaling 25 touches against the San Francisco 49ers. Only two players had more than 25 touches this week: Najee Harris and Derrick Henry.
Some of this is due to the nature of Chicago’s offense, which has been efficient on the ground regardless of who is running the ball, but nonetheless signals the need to keep Herbert in lineups until David Montgomery returns, and honestly, maybe even after Montgomery’s return.
Monday Night Preview
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
There is less fantasy insight I’m looking to gain from this Monday night matchup, as we already know almost everything we need to from both teams. Kansas City is an offensive force, that yes, has run into some troubles recently. And the Giants have been in a pool of injuries but still have several solid pass catchers and a quarterback who can run for 100 yards on any given night.
The main thing I’m looking forward to is the return of Kadarius Toney, who missed a week with an injury after several very impressive performances. I’m not, however, looking for him to prove his fantasy value, I think he has already accomplished that. I’m more concerned about his health and want to see him return to a consistent full workload.
On the other side, I’m more curious about how Kansas City shows up from a football perspective. Many have discussed the fact that they are trying to do too much on offense and that defenses have decided they are going to cover the deep ball and force Kansas City to beat them by dinking and dunking their way downfield. I’ll be watching for if they make those adjustments or if they focus more on executing their existing offense.
Either way, I expect Kansas City to win but for New York to cover the spread, which is currently set at 10 points.
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