Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) – NFL Week 1 Studs and Values

Fantasy degenerates rejoice! After a long six months, the NFL is officially back. This article will focus strictly on Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and more specifically DraftKings contest for the Sunday slate of games. However, typically the picks will work on FanDuel as well. Without further ado, let’s get to it with my favorite picks for what will be a wild Week 1 of football.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($6,900)

Herbert is primed for a big season and should easily put his name in the conversation for this year’s NFL MVP. The addition of Kellen Moore as his new offensive coordinator is going to prove to be one of the best moves of the offseason. Moore will open up the offense and allow Herbert to showcase his arm talent, unlike the dink and dunk crap Joe Lombardi called last season.

Week 1 brings Herbert a very good matchup against the Miami Dolphins defense, who have had some major injuries throughout the preseason. The most notable of them was Jalen Ramsey, who was expected to help take this Dolphins defense to the next level. However, without him, this game should be a shootout and Vegas is thinking the same with the Over/Under currently set at 51. That number is the highest on the Sunday slate for Week 1. Look for Herbert to light it up with his full arsenal of weapons healthy and ready to go.

Derek Carr ($5,300)

If you are looking to buy down a little at quarterback, Carr is your guy. Carr is cheaper than all three first-round rookie quarterbacks, which is absurd for a guy who could easily put up 300 yards and three or more touchdowns against an awful Tennessee Titans defense. Don’t let Carr getting benched last season shy you away from him this year.

Josh Mcdaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders are a dumpster fire. Meanwhile, Carr lands in a much better spot in New Orleans. He has excellent deep threats in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Carr also gets Michael Thomas healthy for at least the start of this game and a 6’4” tight end in Juwan Johnson, coming off a seven-touchdown season. Look for Carr to hit the ground running and light up the scoreboard against the Titans.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($8,000)

It will absolutely be wheels up for Robinson in the first game of his NFL career. He is by far the best running back prospect to enter the NFL in years. His limited action in preseason showcased his talent with his first NFL carry, going for 12 yards showing vision, patience, burst, and speed. Furthermore, he showed off his receiving ability with a one-handed catch later in the drive. Look for the Falcons to establish their rookie running back as the focal point of their offense in Week 1.

Tank Bigsby ($5,000)

Bigsby and Travis Etienne have been the talk of the fantasy football community all offseason. These big conversations will only heat up after Bigsby smashes in Week 1.

The Colts run defense is not great, in 2022 they allowed 124.1 rushing yards, and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. Yes, it was just preseason, and yes Bigsby fumbled once. However, he averaged 5.6 YPC, showcasing an excellent burst and vision that will make it tough for Doug Pederson to keep him off the field.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave ($6,500)

Olave had a very solid rookie season despite mediocre quarterback play. He now gets an upgrade at quarterback in Carr but his salary does not reflect that. He is currently only the 15th highest-priced wide receiver despite having some of the biggest upside on this slate. Olave is one of the best deep threats in the game and Carr has been among the most accurate deep ball passers in the league.

Furthermore, the Titans do not have a good defense. Last season, they allowed a league-high 24 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. All in all, Olave is an excellent play this week, especially if you are looking for a stack with Carr.

Jahan Dotson ($5,000)

Dotson has been an underrated sleeper on all fantasy football platforms this offseason. That trend will continue for DFS as he comes in at a very favorable price. Washington quarterback, Sam Howell, looked his way early and often in the preseason. Furthermore, in Howell’s only start last season, he hit Dotson three times for 72 yards. Moreover, Terry McLaurin will either be out for this game or certainly not 100% with a turf toe injury. That leaves Dotson as the number one target.

Look for Dotson to hit the ground running in 2023 against a very favorable defense, who are rolling out a couple of cornerbacks who were just awful last season.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett ($4,300)

The Dolphins’ defense gave up a total of 11 touchdowns to tight ends last season. Yes, they did hire Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, which should help improve their defense. However, his style of defense typically limits the bigger plays with two high safeties, leaving plenty of room over the middle of the field for Everett to feast. Herbert and Everett finished last season connecting for touchdowns in three straight games and we should expect more of the same to begin this season.

Robert Tonyan ($3,100)

If you’re one of those DFS players who like to go dumpster diving for a tight end, Tonyan is your guy. You’re going to need a guy that will score a touchdown and the former Packer could very well do that against his former team. The Chicago Bears offense is going to run a good amount of two tight end sets, especially in the red zone. Tonyan and Justin Fields connected multiple times for touchdowns during camp. Throw Tonyan in a couple of lineups as a dart throw looking for that touchdown. If you are a betting man, Tonyan is +600 for an anytime touchdown if you’re feeling lucky.

Defense / Special Teams

Washington Commanders ($2,800)

This is going to be one of those weeks where you want to just eat the chalk for your defense. Let’s face it, the Arizona Cardinals are just not going to score many points this season. They don’t have a great offensive line and are going to start an inexperienced quarterback who has only been with the team for a few weeks. It’s no surprise that they’re looking like the early favorites for USC’s Caleb Williams.

Furthermore, the Commanders have some very good pass rushers and a rookie first-round cornerback in Emmanuel Forbes, who has been a ball hawk all of camp. Look for quite a few sacks and a couple of turnovers from this Ron Rivera-led defense.

That wraps it up for Week 1 be sure to check back weekly for more DFS picks. Don’t forget to check your lineups before lock in case of injuries.  Good luck and go win some money!

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