Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) – Week 4 Studs and Values

Welcome back to the latest installment of our DFS series on studs and values. This article will focus strictly on Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and more specifically DraftKings contest for the Sunday slate of games. However, typically the picks will work on FanDuel as well. 

Week 3 was certainly a wild one in the NFL. In the end, my picks lacked touchdowns last week which crushed my lineups. Especially, in a week that the Miami Dolphins put up 70 points.

Smash

Lamar Jackson was one of the top quarterbacks scoring 32.2 points.

Tony Pollard despite not scoring a touchdown was still able to score a good 18.1 points.

Elijah Moore had a very solid game scoring 12.8 points.

Duds

Dalton Kincaid was a flop only scoring 2.3 points.

Roschon Johnson was good with his carries but didn’t get enough volume only scoring 6.9 points.

Mark Andrews didn’t do terribly but at his price, 7.5 points wasn’t enough.

Without further ado, let’s jump right into this week’s top studs and values.

Quarterback

Justin Fields ($6,600)

Fields was only able to pass for 99 yards last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite that, he was still able to score 11.7 fantasy points. While that’s not great, it was good to see Fields using his rushing ability again, having 11 attempts for 47 yards. Fields’ running was the biggest factor in his huge fantasy run down the stretch of the last season. This week, he faces off against a Denver Broncos defense that just had a disgraceful performance allowing 70 points. If there was ever a game for Fields to get the offense right, this is the week to do it.

Brock Purdy ($5,900)

Mr. Irrelevant has been the talk of the NFL since he took over for Jimmy Garoppolo last season. Purdy continues to prove he deservedly won the starting job over Trey Lance. This week, Purdy faces an Arizona Cardinals defense, who despite beating the Dallas Cowboys, still give up on average over 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Purdy has plenty of weapons with YAC (yards after catch) capabilities. Even though he may be limited in terms of arm talent, he’s able to get the ball to his stars, who in turn rack up Purdy’s fantasy points. Look for Purdy to have another 250+ yard passing game and to throw a couple of touchdowns.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs ($7,100)

The leading rusher in 2022 has struggled to begin the 2023 season. This week, however, is a perfect matchup for the former Alabama star. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed an average of 4.3 YPC and 99 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. Furthermore, Jacobs has scored 5 touchdowns in 7 games and averages 83.6 yards per game against the Chargers in his career. Ultimately, the Raiders are going to lean on Jacobs this week to try and control the clock keeping Justin Herbert on the sidelines.

Khalil Herbert ($4,700)

The DraftKings prices this week make absolutely no sense. Somehow Herbert is the third cheapest Chicago Bears running back. Yes, he is cheaper than D’Onta Foreman who hasn’t been active since Week 1! This week Herbert gets his best matchup of the season against the Broncos defense, who just surrendered EIGHT touchdowns to running backs. Last week, the Bears tried to establish the run early against the Chiefs. However, they quickly found themselves down multiple scores so Herbert didn’t get many carries. This week will be a different story. Look for Herbert to have his best game of the season this week.

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins ($6,800)

Jamar Chase will likely be high-owned after he exploded with 12 catches for 141 yards last week. However, pivoting to Higgins is the way to go this week. He had a bounce-back game in Week 2 after a goose egg in Week 1. Last week, Higgins had a miserable game against the Los Angeles Rams dropping multiple passes. When star receivers have a bad showing, they typically bounce back the next game, just as Higgins did in Week 2. Look for a similar result this week. Furthermore, wide receivers against the Tennessee Titans just keep producing each week. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver in every game this season. This week will be much of the same. The only question is will it be Chase or Higgins?

Josh Downs ($3,500)

Downs put together a very nice game last week with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Downs did a lot of his damage from the slot. He gets a matchup this week against the Rams who we just saw on Monday Night Football. During that game, the Rams allowed Tyler Boyd to catch five passes on nine targets. With Downs seeing 12 targets last week and a 44% target per route run this season, he should be in for a big week.  Anthony Richardson is expected to play this week so that may hurt Downs a little target-wise. However, he is still a very good value and could explode with either quarterback this week.

Tight End

TJ Hockenson ($6,500)

The tight end position is kind of light this weekend so paying up for Hockenson is a solid strategy. Hockenson has had at least seven receptions in every game this season. This week, he faces a Carolina Panthers defense who have allowed 14 receptions to tight ends for 155 yards. That may seem low but it’s actually middle of the pack in the NFL and the Panthers have not faced a tight end as good as Hockenson this season. He should have another good game as he looks to continue being one of the most reliable fantasy tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth ($3,400)

Freiermuth has scored two touchdowns this season which is excellent. Although, he does only have five receptions on the season which is a little worrisome. However, last week in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first game without Diontae Johnson, Freiermuth did have three receptions for 41 yards on four targets. This week, he faces a Houston Texans defense who have allowed an average of 13 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Furthermore, they allow an 85% catch rate to the position so Freiermuth shouldn’t need a ton of targets to be effective.

Defense / Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,800)

The Bengals’ defense has been a solid fantasy option this season. Last week against the Rams, they had a great game sacking Matthew Stafford 6 times and forcing 2 interceptions. This week, they face the Titans offense who have allowed 13 sacks on the season and have only averaged 15 points per game. Furthermore, they offer some salary relief as opposed to going with the chalk in the San Francisco 49ers or the Philadelphia Eagles.

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