Dynasty Buys, Sells, And Holds: Preseason Week 2

Welcome back to my weekly article series, where we dive into the market of dynasty fantasy football. In this series, we’ll guide you through the strategic decisions that can make or break your team’s success. As the second week of the preseason unfolds, we’ll analyze the players you should be targeting to bolster your roster, those you might want to consider parting ways with, and those whose potential you should patiently hold onto.

I want to make a note of what is meant when I say sell. What I am not saying is to “sell high” or otherwise try and squeeze out every ounce of value you can get. Instead, consider that the preseason creates a unique opening to initiate selling in the first place. Some of your fellow league members, who might not have been interested before, now have reasons to buy from you.

As the preseason action ramps up, I hope this series can help calibrate your internal compass toward more informed decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned dynasty manager or just starting out, keeping a pulse on the ever-evolving dynasty landscape will help you stay ahead. If you missed last week’s breakdown, check it out here.

With each section, I will be including examples of real trade packages accepted for the players I highlight. Please do keep in mind that these packages are all sourced from superflex/2QB leagues. So, grab a seat and prepare to elevate your team management to new heights.

Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy burst onto the scene last season, ranking as QB9 from Weeks 13 through 18. With consistent multi-touchdown games, he secured no worse than QB14, even notching three top-nine finishes. Additionally, averaging 19.8 PPR points, Purdy was an immediate QB1. His performance likely clinched league titles for many, given he was coming from waivers or the taxi squad.

After propelling the 49ers to dual playoff victories, Purdy suffered a UCL tear in the NFC Championship Game against Philadelphia. Recently, he marked a crucial milestone by playing his first post-injury live-action game on Saturday against the Broncos. Purdy went four-of-five for 65 yards, scrambled for eight yards, and took one sack on a ten-play drive.

Ultimately, the starting job is his to lose. In a recent interview with Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan reaffirmed this fact by stating “He would to melt in practice to lose [the job], and Brock’s too good of a player to melt in practice…”. Furthermore, with the recent, shall I say, melty, performances by Trey Lance, Purdy doesn’t have much to worry about.

In the short term, Brock Purdy can be viewed in the same light as Kirk Cousins. In the long term, barring any meltdowns, he should be coveted as a prime QB2 candidate for your dynasty squads.

Trade One: 2024 first round pick

Trade Two: 2024 second round pick, 2025 second round pick, Justyn Ross

My Verdict: Buy

Jalin Hyatt

Jalin Hyatt was a very divisive prospect, being used as a deep threat from the slot on 85% of his routes in 2022. This role had questionable transitionary value to the NFL, as the distance between the hash marks is noticeably smaller. That is an important note as it gives less free room for Hyatt to get up to speed, and brings the hands of opposing corners closer to jamming up his launch off the line. A thing he struggled with when it (rarely) was put up against him.

On Friday night, he turned the rumor into reality by being set up by the brilliant play designer Brian Daboll to do exactly what was said that he couldn’t do. He got a free release and a one-on-one route against a physically inferior safety. And, just like we saw in college, he effortlessly broke away to catch an uncontested ball for a 33-yard touchdown.

However, this will not happen every week, and starting defenders are typically more athletic than the aging veteran Eric Rowe that allowed the aforementioned touchdown.

Trade One: Jamaal Williams, 2025 second round pick

Trade Two: Tyreek Hill (A 2024 first and 2024 third round pick was sent in addition to Hyatt)

My Verdict: Sell, unless it’s bestball

Kendre Miller

Kendre Miller shined as the Saints’ lead rusher in the first half against the Chargers. Despite a minor knee sprain from last week’s preseason debut, he showed no signs of discomfort, with the only sign of any prior injury being the brace on his right knee.

Early in the second quarter, a beautifully thrown ball from Jameis Winston found Miller. He sprinted along the left sideline, making an impressive parallel catch over rookie linebacker Daiyan Henley. Right after, Miller capitalized on the opportunity, taking Winston’s handoff and dashing seven yards to the endzone.

Notably, with Alvin Kamara serving a suspension for the first three regular-season games, Miller is poised to share backfield duties with Jamaal Williams. However, Kamara will come back. Cracking the top of the depth chart between Williams and starter Alvin Kamara might hold Miller back when it comes to production in 2023. Though he has shown remarkable explosiveness, particularly compared to the slower-paced Williams, but it’s wise to curb immediate production expectations.

Trade One: Tony Pollard (Roschon Johnson was sent alongside Miller)

Trade Two: Jerick McKinnon, 2024 second round pick

My Verdict: Sell

Kenny Pickett

In 2023, Pittsburgh Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett aims for a second-year surge, following a lackluster rookie season. He began 12 games last year, throwing 2,404 yards, seven TDs, and nine interceptions. Pickett averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game with just one game exceeding 16 fantasy points. To put it simply, his fantasy performance left much to be desired.

However, Pickett’s career took a positive turn after a rocky few games as a starter, experiencing a significant offensive shift coming out of their bye week. Under the guidance of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the team embraced a more run-focused strategy, resulting in remarkable improvement. Their success rate surged from 28th (weeks five to eight) to fifth (weeks ten to 18).

Fast forward to this week, Kenny Pickett is coming off of yet another game in which he and the starting offense came storming out to a touchdown drive. Both drives were capped off by throws that show great timing and touch by the second-year signal caller. Many Steelers insiders have been raving about the development of Pickett. With a revigorated offensive line and blooming star George Pickens, all signs are pointing up.

Trade One: Treylon Burks

Trade Two: Jahan Dotson, 2024 second round pick

My Verdict: Buy

Nick Herbig

Yes, I know, I’m talking about yet another Steeler. This one, however, is on the defensive side of the ball. Nick Herbig is an asset acquirable in IDP (Individual Defensive Player) leagues. Herbig, is a 6’2″ 240lb pass rush specialist and one of my favorite prospect values from this past draft class.

This rookie edge rusher is making a strong case as the standout player of this preseason. As a fourth-round pick, he’s impressed with his ability to find the quarterback. In Saturday’s game against the Buffalo Bills, Herbig continued his impressive preseason, following up on his 1.5 sacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

He’s reportedly been taken under the wing of fellow edge rusher TJ Watt, learning hand-fighting techniques that will no doubt return a profit in his game. Although I doubt he’ll amass to a carbon copy of Watt, he can certainly be relied upon as a rotational pass rusher as soon as this season. His floor in my opinion is Bryce Huff, a player of a similar mold who is relegated to roughly ten snaps a game. A fine enough investment to keep on your taxi squad.

I was not able to find any trades for Herbig, though I can say both shares I have in IDP leagues both come from waivers, at 0% FAAB each.

My Verdict: Buy as a throw-in, or claim from waivers for 0-3% FAAB

Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers, an exceptionally talented rookie, is poised to shine as a top-notch Z receiver in the Ravens’ offense. With a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, Flowers could rise above the uncertainty in the wide receiver group. During camp, multiple reporters and writers have raved about his play, coming to earn the nickname “Joystick”.

Despite being a first-round NFL draft pick with built-in long-term potential, Flowers faces a considerable amount of target competition. The recently acquired Odell Beckham Jr, who hasn’t played in over 18 months, has been added to the mix. Rashod Bateman, who missed 16 games in his first two seasons, is also vying for targets. And let’s not forget about Mark Andrews, an ever-reliable offensive force. If Flowers is lucky, he might be able to overtake OBJ and Bateman by season’s end. However, I do not foresee him eating into Mark Andrews’ target share.

That's Zay Flowers for ya 🔥 @ZayFlowers

📺: #BALvsWAS on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/L9mPiySUki pic.twitter.com/7xV6hBcrY2

— NFL (@NFL) August 22, 2023

Zay Flowers could shake anyone out of their cleats in college, he can clearly continue to do the same in the NFL.  I think we should keep in mind that real-life success and highlights do not directly correlate to fantasy success (see: George Pickens last year), however, not everyone realizes this, and as the season goes on, more and more hype will build. This will no doubt lead to some very appealing trade offers. The general fantasy market as of today does not seem very hot on Flowers.

Trade One: 2024 first round pick

Trade Two: Quentin Johnston

My Verdict: Hold

Aidan O’Connell

Aidan O’Connell is looking like the standout rookie quarterback of the preseason. He continued to shine against the Rams. Stepping in during the second half, he made 11 of 18 throws for 163 yards and two touchdowns. So far in two weeks, his stats stand strong at 26 of 36 passes, 304 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Furthermore, O’Connell stands out among 48 QBs with 20+ preseason dropbacks, leading with 11.0 air yards per attempt. Impressively, he’s also completed 72% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt. O’Connell’s dominance continues in multiple categories, ranking first in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, first down percentage, touchdown percentage, and third down percentage, while coming in at a modest second in success rate.

While there are several other quarterbacks taken in the same range as O’Connell in the draft, none of them have such a clear path to starting time. Jimmy Garoppolo has a long history of injuries, with only one complete regular season in his nine-year career. The only other quarterback in the room is journeyman Brian Hoyer.

Ultimately, a simple case can be made for O’Connell to turn a profit for what you can acquire him for in dynasty leagues. All it will take is a short stent out for Garoppolo for the Raiders to have a potential quarterback controversy on their hands.

Trade One: Clayton Tune (A 2024 third round pick was sent along with O’Connell)

Trade Two: Zach Kuntz

My Verdict: Buy

Bijan Robinson

In Friday night’s preseason matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson showcased what so many of us drooled over back in the spring. Not to mention, throughout his illustrious collegiate career as a Texas Longhorn. As he spotted a gap on the right side of the offensive line, he swiftly darted upfield. With nimble footwork, he dodged one defender and powered through another upon contact.

This initial NFL run covered a solid 12 yards, embodying the qualities he had consistently displayed in prior weeks: elusiveness, speed, and the knack for confounding opposing defenses. Bijan Robinson delivered exactly as expected. Don’t let my words do all the talking, let’s give your eyes a chance to see art in motion.

The first carry that no one has talked about yet pic.twitter.com/DgTIhvF9AF

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) August 19, 2023

Trade One: Tee Higgins, 2024 first round pick

Trade Two: Christian Kirk, 2024 first round pick, Kenneth Walker

My Verdict: Hold, the price is going to go up when points begin to get scored

In the modern realm of fantasy football where values rise and fall at the drop of a hat, crafting a winning strategy demands keen insights into player values. Smart buys, strategic sells, and calculated holds can shape your team’s long-term success. Stay proactive, leveraging emerging trends while considering player potential and team dynamics. As the regular season approaches, these moves could set you apart in the dynasty landscape.

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