Dynasty Football Sells: Tight Ends
In this article, Ryan Kirksey will reveal his top three players to consider selling in dynasty football at the tight end position. If you enjoy this article, give Ryan a follow on Twitter here. You can also discuss it with him. Ryan’s DMs are always open for fantasy football conversation. Check these players out here in Dynasty Football Sells: Tight Ends.
It’s a common fantasy football trope that tight ends take longer than wide receivers or running backs to develop into elite fantasy assets. Why? Generally speaking, it’s because most tight ends are asked to learn two positions at the same time. First, they have to learn blocking schemes and positioning to be able to effectively reposition their man on run or pass plays.
Second, they usually have to learn a complicated route tree. That can include routes that have pass reads for tight ends or routes that involve cuts or picks so that receivers can get open. It’s a complicated position to learn and master, particularly for rookies, who may have just used their overwhelming size and athleticism to dominate opponents back in college.
Elite Tight Ends in Dynasty Have Binary Futures
Let’s say you do happen to roster one of the truly elite tight ends, it is paramount you take a realistic look at your team for the present season. If you have the possibility of contending for a title, an elite tight end this year (say, top five or six) can win you a league. In fact, according to Fantasy Points, Travis Kelce (4th) and Darren Waller (19th) were both top-20 in fantasy Wins Above Replacement among all players in 2020. No other tight end cracked the top 55 players.
However, if you have a middle-of-the-pack or rebuilding team, elite tight ends can often demand a premium on the dynasty trade market. It’s simple supply and demand. There are so few dominant set-it-and-forget-it players at the position, when they do become available to contending teams, they are often willing to part with a haul of future assets or building blocks.
Your choice is binary. It’s a simple if/then statement. Am I contending? “Yes” – Great, keep your elite tight end and reap the benefit of a scarce position. “No” – Seek to acquire as many assets as you can knowing your present tight end can often draw in return an up-and-coming tight end and future picks.
To that end, here are three tight ends that you may need to consider selling depending on the state of your team and what assets you can draw in return.
George Kittle
Sell George Kittle in dynasty you say? A top-three tight end? I do believe this is the year to do it, particularly if he gets off to a hot start considering the 49ers relatively easy schedule early in the season.
I laid out this case when I wrote the San Francisco 49ers Team Preview a couple of weeks ago, but assuming Trey Lance is the starter this year, there is all of a sudden a lot of ways Kyle Shanahan has to slice up that offensive pie in 2021. We know about the receiving chops of Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. Both Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon are expected to get a healthy amount of work, plus Jeff Wilson is still hovering around. And then you add in Lance’s rushing ability, which will surely be used, and we are looking at a tough path to repeating the 25%-28% target share from 2018-2020.
Kittle’s first two games are against the Lions and Eagles this year, both are projected to have abysmal defenses and both were top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends last year. If Kittle gets off to a hot start but your team is not in contention this year, it might be time to pull the trigger.
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Now is the time to sell if you’re not in win-now mode.
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More Dynasty Buys and Sells
Dynasty Football Sells: Quarterbacks
Dynasty Football Buys: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Sells: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Buys: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Sells: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Buys: Tight Ends
Not on DraftKings Sportsbook yet? This one is literally free money.
Logan Thomas
Quick, how old is Logan Thomas? No, he is not in his mid-20’s even though he has just five years of NFL service time. Thomas is now 30 years old, but we don’t think of him as that old because he did not play in 2015 or 2016. He pivoted away from quarterback to try and learn the tight end position and transition to that role.
Read that sentence again. It took an elite athlete two years out of the NFL to learn to play tight end. That’s how difficult the position is and why there is usually such a small window for them before father time or injuries take over.
Thomas had a phenomenal season in 2020, pulling in 670 receiving yards on 110 targets and six touchdowns. But one must wonder if all of that was due to otherworldly volume that will be hard to replicate. Thomas led all tight ends in snap share (97.8%), routes run (576), and route participation (95.8%) last season. He was also seventh in target share and third in targets.
Over the last five seasons, a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team ranked 9th, 19th, 201st, 11th, and 32nd in target share to tight ends, according to Sharp Football Stats. A mixed bag for sure, but with my man-crush Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Dyami Brown all gobbling up targets for Washington, plus the declaration they want Antonio Gibson to play like Christian McCaffrey, the pure volume for Thomas is sure to fall.
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Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Robert Tonyan
After Tonyan led all tight ends in touchdowns and was third in fantasy points in 2020, this one might also be a bit controversial, but the key is to consider it not only from a dynasty roster perspective but also from a Green Bay Packers team perspective.
I had a fascinating back and forth on Twitter last night with @PsychWardFF about this topic, and in the end, I think we got to the same place. I encourage you to read it.
Basically, there are two ways to look at Tonyan. He is absolutely going to help teams (both redraft and dynasty) win this year thanks to the unparalleled efficiency he will see with Aaron Rodgers. But then what? What do we know about Jordan Love and his ability and desire to target tight ends and do it effectively? Absolutely nothing.
Rodgers has always been a kingmaker when it comes to tight ends, but that train is likely coming to the last stop in Green Bay this year. Tonyan ranked first among the position in fantasy points per target, target premium, and quarterback rating when targeted. I haven’t seen Jordan Love on an NFL field in a meaningful way, but I feel absolutely confident those numbers will digress going into 2022.
Now is the time to sell if you’re not in win-now mode.
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More Dynasty Buys and Sells
Dynasty Football Sells: Quarterbacks
Dynasty Football Buys: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Sells: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Buys: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Sells: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Buys: Tight Ends
Not on DraftKings Sportsbook yet? This one is literally free money.
