Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 4
Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly recap, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check it all out here in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 4.
Another week of football in the books and as I write this we are down to two undefeated teams and two winless teams. That’s right, the New York Jets and the New York Giants are the latest teams to join the winners club, after upsets against the Titans and the Saints. Watching the Jets get their first win is similar to watching the winless team in your fantasy league get their first victory. You feel a sense of relief for them and an odd pride that they won, that is, unless you were the team to lose to them.
One of my close friends is a Tennessee Titans fan, so we constantly make fun of him and his home team. It is truly comedic that a team with certainly one of the best active running backs and potentially one of the best running backs of all time would consistently be mediocre. Ironically, my friend’s fantasy team mirrors the Titans in many ways. He’s rostered Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for several seasons (it’s a keeper league) and yet, for two years running, he’s been knocked out of the playoffs on a tie-breaker, by less than a point, in the last week of the season. It’s kind of like losing because of a missed field goal when your best player rushed for 157 yards on 33 carries.
So we want to avoid putting ourselves in that position. We want to position our teams to be ahead, so we don’t have to stress about missing the playoffs at the last minute. And we have the tools to help you get the upper edge. Starting each week with this column, you get a first look at the trends of the week and a deep dive into key players. Follow that up with our waiver wire column, target and snap shares, consistency scores, rankings, and much more, we’ve got you covered to win your league. With that, let’s get into this week’s recap.
Risers
Kenneth Gainwell
(RB6, 3 carries, 31 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 56 yards, 20.9 points)
Kenneth Gainwell made the “Dynasty Stash” portion of this column in Week 1. That week he finished as RB20, in what seemed like an outlier performance for the rookie. But three weeks later, he is proving to be a consistent factor in the Philadelphia offense. He now has 32 touches on the season, in what is turning into an even-split running by committee. Gainwell had nine touches this week compared to Miles Sanders’ 10 touches and was more effective when carrying the ball. A couple of touchdowns has propelled him to surpass Sanders in total fantasy points, nonetheless, he is proving a low-end RB2 to RB3, especially in deeper leagues. He is worth a monitor if he isn’t rostered in your league. Players like Gainwell who get this type of usage similar to JD McKissic or Nyheim Hines can really be valuable over the years.
Sam Darnold
(QB2, 26-39, 301 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 6 carries, 35 yards, 2 TDs, 31.54 points)
Going into Week 4, Sam Darnold was QB13 and was tied for the most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks at three. He now leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns with five and has passed for 300 yards in three consecutive games. Darnold is slowly becoming a low-end QB1 or at minimum a streaming option for bye weeks, or tough matchups for your starting quarterback. It is also worth noting that four of Darnold’s rushing touchdowns have come in the past two weeks when Christian McCaffrey has been out. That could be a signal of significant upside for Darnold while McCaffrey recovers, but hopefully has long-term implications of how Carolina could utilize Darnold in the rush game when their stud running back returns.
Saquon Barkley
(RB2, 13 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD, 29.6 points)
I’m honestly very excited about this. Not because I’m particularly a fan of Saquon Barkley or because I made any predictions about him, but because it is exciting to see someone come off a hard injury and have success. These players put so much into their work, and it is heartwarming to watch them succeed. If you bailed on Barkley after Week 2, you’re likely feeling some pain right now. He is one of two running backs in the past two weeks to combine for at least 50 fantasy points. The other? Cordarrelle Patterson, who made the risers category in Week 2. What is potentially most encouraging is to see Barkley’s pass usage increase, with at least five receptions in each of his past two games. Not only that, but this was his first week surpassing 100 all-purpose yards. Barkley is making his return.
Fallers
Miles Sanders
(RB39, 7 carries, 13 yards, 3 receptions, 34 yards, 7.7 points)
We saw this last week with Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber. When one running back in a committee rises, often their fellow committee member falls. Some committees are consistently volatile, such as the New England Patriots. But others follow trends and are more predictable. We may need another week of data to feel certain about this trend in the Eagle’s backfield, but Sanders has been hit or miss since last year. And now we are seeing a decrease in his pass game usage, with only three targets compared to Gainwell’s eight. If I roster Sanders, I’m looking to acquire Gainwell and see where this backfield trends.
George Kittle
(TE17, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 8.0 points)
After entering the season as a consensus top-five tight end, George Kittle entered Week 4 as the 6th best tight end in the league and has been relatively volatile to begin the season. Kittle is not displaying the level of consistency we came to expect after his 2019 season, and while his performance has declined to begin the season, I put Kittle in the “don’t panic” category. First, we should note that Kittle was targeted 11 times on Sunday. That leads all tight ends going into Monday night. Second, he’s still Kittle. To me, the opportunity is clearly there, but San Francisco’s offense is frankly not good right now. Sure, they have had injury problems with their backfield and with Jimmy Garopollo exiting the game early. But this offense has yet to sustain itself this season. When it does, Kittle will be there to capitalize.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
(WR85, 2 receptions, 11 yards, 3.1 points)
The Steelers offense continues to struggle, and it is hampering the fantasy prospects of several of their top players. So far this season, JuJu Smith-Schuster has one game with over five receptions, which is the only game where he’s reached double-digit fantasy points. On top of that, he has no receiving touchdowns, only one game with over 50 yards, has 129 total yards, and is averaging less than 10 yards per reception. There’s still plenty of time for Smith-Schuster to make a recovery, but I think as long as Ben Roethlisberger is the starting quarterback, we are likely to see more of the same.
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Dynasty Stashes
Kadarius Toney
(WR26, 6 receptions, 78 yards, 1 carry, 1 yard, 13.9 points)
The rookie wide receiver saw increased opportunities on Sunday due to injuries by the starting receiving core. Kadarius Toney got the start for the Giants with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out for injury, and in their absence, Toney had six catches on nine targets, leading the Giants in targets with a 25% target share. He took advantage of his opportunities, averaging over 10 yards per catch, against what was a tough matchup. His target share will almost certainly drop when Shepard and Slayton return, making Toney a prime dynasty target.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
(WR29, 6 receptions, 70 yards, 13.0 points)
The Detroit receiving core has been one of the more challenging to understand so far, with different receivers emerging each week. Add in the fact that Detroit relies significantly on its tight end and running backs in the passing game, and you have a recipe for volatility. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown emerged, leading all Detroit receivers in targets and tying TJ Hockenson for targets. St. Brown now has 113 yards on 18 targets on the season and is proving he can take advantage when given the opportunity. Maybe next year when Detroit has built up some more they’ll start to depend on St. Brown and Quintez Cephus as their primary receivers.
Notable Targets
Robby Anderson, 11 targets: We have been waiting on Robby Anderson week for four weeks and it still has evaded us. The optimistic take on this news is that this was the highest number of targets for Anderson all season. The pessimistic take is it resulted in only five receptions and under 50 yards. Either way, it demonstrates Carolina’s effort to get Anderson more involved, which is a hopeful sign. He should remain on benches for another week until we see a more consistent target share.
Kyle Pitts, 9 targets: This was quite the relief for managers of Kyle Pitts, and for Falcons fans who watched their team use the fourth overall pick on a tight end who they targeted only three times in Week 3. Pitts only caught the ball four times on those nine targets, so his opportunities didn’t result in top-tier fantasy performance, but that is to be expected from a rookie, particularly one in that Falcons offense. Better days are likely ahead.
Tyler Lockett, 5 targets: Many have discussed the extremely volatile fantasy performances from Tyler Lockett, who is potentially the most inconsistent fantasy player in the league. Some reasons for his jagged performances can be seen in his target share. Since 2020, Lockett has had nine games with five or fewer targets. Only once in those nine games did he achieve double-digit fantasy points, and that was his two-touchdown performance in Week 1. That’s part of why you roster Lockett, is because he can get you 26 points on just four receptions, but it’s also the pain of rostering Lockett. He should be starting in fantasy leagues, but hopefully, you sold high after week two or are looking for opportunities to sell high in the future. Check out his Consistency Profile where we broke down just how “consistent” Lockett is for fantasy.
Consistency Score Home
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Monday Night Preview
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
If you had asked me a year ago if I was looking forward to a Monday Night matchup between the Raiders and the Chargers, I likely would have laughed. But this season, both of these teams have been fun to watch, particularly the Raiders, with Derek Carr playing out of his mind with one of the most unique receiving cores in the NFL.
From a fantasy perspective, I’m looking to see if Mike Williams maintains his performance to date. Much has been made of his performance through three weeks, and rightfully so, but if you compare his performance to Keenan Allen, they’re actually fairly comparable. Allen has 33 targets and 259 yards, Williams 31 targets, and 295 yards. What has been different is their touchdowns, which are among the hardest things to predict in football. With Williams scoring four touchdowns in three weeks, it may be time to sell high, as that rate of touchdowns is hard to maintain.
As for Las Vegas, I’m curious to see if they can keep up this passing attack they’ve got going this season. The Raiders currently have four players with at least 200 receiving yards, including Darren Waller, meaning they are on pace to have four players with 1,000-yard seasons. Only five times in NFL history has a team had three players with at least 1,000 receiving yards. Of course, that bodes well for the fantasy prospects of any of the Raiders receivers, however, it also means that no receiver has truly broken away and become the clear number one. Without that, the Raiders receivers may remain Flex plays until further notice.
Looking for betting options for tonight’s games? Head over to our weekly picks page to see who we’ve got our money on. As for me, I’m taking Las Vegas +3.5 and taking the over on 52.5.
