Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 15

The Fantasy Football Playoffs have arrived! After 14 long weeks of disappointments, breakouts, injuries, and start/sit decisions, we made it to the tournament. As we get closer to kicking off the first round, one thing is certain: everyone is happy. You’re either happy because you made it in and you’re ready to seize that championship, or you’re happy that the fantasy regular season is finally over and you don’t have to suffer through the pain and anguish of defeat anymore. Either way, we’re all excited to see this 2023 fantasy football season come to a magnificent end.

This week, there are a few different directions the Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week could go. There are some obvious frontrunners for highest-scoring affairs, such as Philadelphia at Seattle, Denver at Detroit, or the headliner Dallas at Buffalo matchup. Similar to last week, however, I’d like to go off the beaten path to find the diamond in the rough.  This gem of a showdown features two teams that are sub-.500, but have been putting up yards and points all year long. This week’s Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is the…

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams

One of the biggest contributors to high-scoring games is defenses that can’t stop teams from scoring. This doozy of a contest features the 20th-ranked (LA – 22.3 PPG) and the league’s worst defense (WAS – 30.4 PPG) in opponent’s scoring. Conversely, this game features two quarterbacks who are ranked 13th (Stafford) and 5th (Howell) in passing yards on the season. This meld of poor-scoring defenses with prolific passing production is an equation for fantasy intrigue. Let’s dive into each position and see how things stack up.

Quarterbacks

In a year that will soon be known as the Year of the Backup, quarterbacks have been in short supply. In this landscape, Sam Howell has been a blessing for the Commanders. The fact that he has more passing yards than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert (RIP) this deep into the season is truly shocking. It hasn’t been all flowers and rainbows for Howell though.

Howell leads the league in sacks (58) and is tied with Allen for the most interceptions (14). What this means for fantasy is Howell will have to compensate for his turnovers with more yards and touchdowns. I’m starting Howell in one of my leagues with confidence over Kyler Murray. If I had Trevor Lawrence or Jared Goff, I’d start Howell over them too.

On the other side of the field, Matthew Stafford is officially on fire (according to NBA JAM rules) after three stellar performances, two of which were against two of the league’s best defenses (CLE and BAL). Stafford has averaged 267 passing yards and over three touchdowns a game over his last three. Washington boasts the second-best matchup for quarterbacks on the year, so if Stafford can ball out against a few of the league’s best, what’s stopping him from exploding against one of the league’s worst? All things considered, I like Stafford over Mahomes, Howell, and even Brock Purdy.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr. has been good throughout the 2023 campaign, but the only question for him is “Will he play?” The short answer is probably not. Robinson Jr. went out with a hamstring injury in Week 13 and hasn’t practiced since, including today (Wednesday). Additionally, hamstring injuries are quite problematic, and even if he suits up, there’s no guarantee he’ll get a meaningful workload without the chance of re-injury. I’m already lining up alternative options regardless of his status on Sunday, and so should you.

That being said, the play out of the Commanders’ backfield this week is Antonio Gibson.  Even with Robinson Jr. healthy, Gibson was heavily involved in the passing game, averaging five targets and four catches a game over his last five. Now, with Robinson Jr. likely out, more work will fall into the lap of Gibson, and maybe even 6th-round rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. I’m projecting Rodriguez Jr. to pick up some of the Robinson Jr. early down work, while Gibson maintains his third-down, pass-catching role, with some extra totes throughout.

Overall, I like Gibson as an RB2 (particularly in PPR), and I’d play him over James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, and both KC running backs. I can’t advise picking up and starting Rodriguez Jr. but don’t be surprised if he’s on the field more than you may like as a Gibson manager.

Coming into the year, I was really high on Cam Akers, primarily because of his opportunity in Sean McVay’s solo running back game plan. After that relationship figuratively hit the fan, Kyren Williams stepped in and made the Akers’ dream his reality. Needless to say, Williams has been fantastic this year, climbing the ranks to be 2nd overall in fantasy points per game at the running back position, only behind Christian McCaffrey.  If you have him, he might just be your league-winner. Fire him up as an RB1 against Washington’s 7th-softest matchup for running backs.

Wide Receivers

Washington

One of the biggest anomalies this season has been Howell’s yardage total (5th in the league) not translating to confident, fantasy, wide-receiving options. Washington’s alpha receiver, Terry McLaurin, has been massively disappointing on the year, scoring just twice and never topping 90 yards in a game. Jahan Dotson, the Commanders’ number two, was projected to have a breakout year by numerous reputable sources. However, he currently sits at WR49 in points per game in half-PPR scoring. Curtis Samuel has felt like the only reliable receiver for Washington, but even he has been inconsistent, only scoring double-digit points in four of twelve games played in half-PPR formats.

So the question inevitably becomes, “What do I do with these options?” After doing a deep dive into these players and their more recent game logs, what I’ve discovered is that whenever the Commanders play against a good defense with a shutdown corner, it has turned into a Samuel game. When they’ve played lesser competition and McLaurin can win his matchup, it’s a McLaurin game. Dotson has just been matchup-agnostic. It’s been as random as it comes for Dotson and when he puts up stats.

My actionable advice against the Rams’ 16th-ranked defense against wide receivers? I’d rank them McLaurin, Samuel, then Dotson. Personally, I’d try not to play Dotson at all, and I’d be willing to play Samuel and/or McLaurin as WR3s in half or full PPR scoring. Any one of them could go off for 100+ and a score;  unfortunately, there’s no fantasy crystal ball to consult.

All in all, they all come with some risk, so if you have safer options you like better, you might consider going that way. There are points to be had here, though, so if you have your preference on a Washington option, by all means, go with your gut.

Los Angeles

If you’re a Cooper Kupp manager and you still have all of your hair, I applaud you. His five-game stretch of frustration (Weeks 7-12) could have driven the most mild-mannered owner crazy. Luckily, he’s come back to life with double-digit points in his last two games, and Stafford is playing his best football of late. Normally I wouldn’t have to convince you to play Kupp, but you may need a confidence boost. In games that Kupp receives 8+ targets (4 of 9 games), he’s converted at least 75% of those into catches and has three touchdowns in those contests. I fully expect Kupp to be targeted at least eight times on Sunday, so I feel good about playing him as a backend WR1.

With a handful of wide receivers being taken in the first round of this year’s draft, it would have been impossible to project for 5th-round Puka Nacua to lead the pack of rookies in receptions, targets, and yards this late in the season, but that’s where we are. Nacua has been a godsend for Los Angeles, especially early in the season when Kupp started on the PUP list. Now, he’s become a staple for Stafford and McVay, filling the shoes of Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods of years past. I really like Nacua in this extremely favorable matchup (2nd-best). I’d play Puka over DJ Moore, Chris Olave, and Devonta Smith.

There are a few deeper names to discuss on the Rams’ side of the ball. Tutu Atwell has been a relevant third option in this receiver room, but he suffered a concussion in last week’s Ravens matchup and was listed as a non-participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough. He’ll have a few more chances to improve his outlook for this weekend, but I’d bet he sits against Washington.

If Atwell is in fact out, then Demarcus Robinson steps into a more viable fantasy role. I say more because he has been more involved lately regardless of Atwell’s presence; he’s put up 4-55-1 on 5 targets, and 3-46-1 on 10 targets in his last two games. In deeper leagues, Robinson is a sleeper option. However, if Atwell plays, I don’t trust Robinson as much, especially if Tyler Higbee returns from his neck injury. If one or both of Atwell and Higbee are out, though, Robinson is startable in the right situation. 

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas has been a playable tight-end asset throughout much of the season thanks to Howell’s high passing numbers. However, he has cooled down recently. Before their Week 14 bye, Thomas recorded two catches for 15 yards, then was held without a catch on one target last week. Those stat lines are hard to trust going into the first week of the fantasy playoffs, but he does come back to the 3rd-easiest matchup for tight ends. I’d consider Thomas a backend TE1 that I’d play over Tucker Kraft, Hunter Henry, and Cade Otton.

Tyler Higbee has not been a part of the Rams’ passing attack as much as originally thought at the beginning of the year. Even when Kupp was out, Higbee wasn’t producing top TE numbers. In fact, he’s only had one game of valuable fantasy production (Week 12  vs CLE – 5-29-2), but I bet nobody played him coming off a 1-17 game. The best area of the Commanders’ defense has been against the tight end position (21st most points allowed). Furthermore, the matchup, paired with his neck injury, on top of Robinson’s increased involvement has me out on Higbee. I’d play all three options listed earlier over Higbee this week.

Now is the time to put your best lineup forward and give yourself your best chance at winning the first round of the fantasy playoffs. To help you do that, FFFaceoff is here to provide you with all the latest news, articles, rankings, and start/sit decisions you need to give you the edge. It also helps to follow us on our platforms on X, Facebook, and Instagram @fffaceoff, or me @WSFilosofee. You can also join our massive Facebook Group with over 60,000 followers to get immediate feedback on any decisions that are plaguing you for this week and beyond. Good luck and high scoring!

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