Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 4

Well done NFL! That was an impressive weekend of football. Here’s an interesting stat this weekend generated: the Miami Dolphins have 17 total touchdowns on the year. The next closest team touchdown total is 10 (Bills, Chargers, and Packers). The lowest team total is not the Zach Wilson-led Jets, surprisingly; it’s the Titans with three, but the Jets do have four. Another shocker is that the Bengals only have four too, one of which was a punt return TD.

I bring this stat up not to dump on the thoroughly underwhelming (although it is fun), but rather to highlight just how impressive the Dolphins have been to start the 2023 season. Miami is just the fifth team in NFL history to score 17 or more touchdowns through the first three games of a season. To be this dominant, it’s hard to pass this team up when looking for a matchup of the week. And it just so happens that their matchup in Week 4 is the only one that jumps off the page. I have a feeling this won’t be the last time I repeat feature this team. My Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week for Week 4 is the…

Week 4 Matchup of the Week — Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

When 70 points is within the range of outcomes, and the other team has Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, sparks are sure to fly. I certainly don’t expect this one to mirror what happened in Miami this past week; Buffalo’s defense is a much better unit than what Tua and company faced against Denver.  But what I do expect is for Allen to give the Dolphins a reason to score as many points as they can, because the Bills can match them every step of the way. At the time of this writing, Las Vegas has the Bills as 3-point favorites in a 53.5 over/under. This game has Over written all over it.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a near-perfect passing performance, completing 23 of 26 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns. He’s been everything this team needs: decisive, accurate, and smart. Regardless of format, Tagovailoa is top three in quarterback rankings, and even in a tougher matchup against Buffalo’s stingy defense that ranks second in fantasy points given up to the quarterback position, I’m not sitting the conductor of his high-flying offense. Fire him up with confidence and watch the magic happen.

Josh Allen hasn’t been the elite fantasy option he was drafted to be, but he hasn’t been bad either.  Despite his team putting up 37+ points in the last two games, that hasn’t translated to Allen having huge fantasy days. He simply hasn’t needed to put up big numbers, which can be the case when you face Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garropolo, and Sam Howell. Fantasy owners have been waiting for his big boom game, and it could very well happen this coming Sunday. Miami ranks perfectly in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points given up to QBs (16th overall). This has the potential to be the game of the year.

Running Backs

Miami

Unless you were on a technology and NFL news freeze this past weekend, I don’t need to tell you about Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane‘s historic day against the Broncos. It’s wild to think that Mostert’s 142 total yards and four touchdowns ranked second on the weekend for total fantasy points. The number one overall fantasy player was his backfield mate Achane, who racked up 233 total yards and his own four touchdowns. Moving forward, Mostert is still the number one option in this offense and should be started regardless of the matchup. He’s currently the number-one running back on the year. You don’t sit that.

The bigger question is what role will Achane have? To determine that, it should be said that Salvon Ahmed is aiming to return to action this weekend after missing Week 3 with a groin injury. Jeff Wilson Jr. isn’t eligible to come off of the IR until Week 5, so at least he won’t be relevant for this week’s discussion. I’d like to think Achane’s atomic performance would have catapulted him past Ahmed on the depth chart, but I’m not an NFL coach whose primary focus is on winning games, not producing fantasy points.

Mike McDaniels is a smart coach though, and I trust that he’ll put his best players on the field and continue to put them in positions to succeed. I’d consider Achane a high-risk, but extremely high-reward play. There’s a world where he is relegated to RB3 behind Ahmed, but there’s also a world where he splits carries with Mostert. Either way, I’m going to try and play him in my Flex in every league I’m fortunate enough to have him. Injecting that sort of volatility into your lineup is how you win games. I’d play Achane over Brian Robinson Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, and Alexander Mattison.

Buffalo

James Cook has taken the step forward just as the fantasy community was hoping he would entering the year. The only problem is he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season. While he’s put up over a hundred yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games, he’s been on the sideline watching Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, and Allen vulture goalline touchdowns.  I’m calling it now, though. This is the week that he gets into the endzone. Cook is a great RB2 start this week. I’d play him over Miles Sanders, Zack Moss, and James Conner. 

Murray and Harris don’t get enough work to rely on them in deeper leagues. It’s hard to trust their limited role and minimal opportunity. If you have to play one of them, it’d be Murray. He appears to have surpassed Harris on the Bills’ depth chart.

Wide Receivers

Miami

Tyreek Hill continues to make his case for the number one overall fantasy wideout. If his 25-412-4 line through three games isn’t impressive enough, just watch a Dolphins game; he’s just faster and better than any defensive back in the league. He’s a mismatch in any part of the field and every time he touches the ball, he has a chance to take it to the house. Get excited about what he can do, and what he may need to do, in this one.

There is some optimism that Jaylen Waddle can clear the concussion protocol to suit up for this juggernaut matchup. This is a situation to monitor throughout the week. If he is cleared to play Sunday, plug him in all formats. I want as many options in this game as possible.

If you’re looking at a deeper league dart throw in this game, you’re either looking at Braxton Berrios or Robbie “Chosen” Anderson. Chosen did catch a 68-yard TD in Miami’s 70-point affair, but I wouldn’t trust Anderson with a lineup spot considering he returned to the practice squad Monday. He could be elevated if Waddle or River Cracraft can’t go, but I’d rather go with Berrios over Anderson; I’d rather play another option altogether.

Buffalo

Stefon Diggs’ fantasy year has been similar to his quarterbacks’: not elite but not bad. He’s not putting up numbers like his counterpart Hill, but he’s as reliable as they come for fantasy WR1s. I expect Allen to have to throw a lot in this one, and if Diggs continues to get 29% of his targets like he has thus far, then Diggs is easily in store for a dozen-plus targets. I’d put money on Diggs going for at least 100-1 in this one.

Gabe Davis is what he’s always been for fantasy: boom or bust. He came out of Week 2 with a 6-92-1 line, giving a lot of people hope to start him in Week 3. He turned around and gave managers a one-catch effort, he was just lucky enough to have his one catch go for 35 yards to paydirt. This week, I stand by what I said that I want as many players in this game as possible.  I’ve always been hesitant to start, or even roster, Davis, but I’d be willing to throw him out there for this possible shootout. I’d consider Davis over Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jordan Addison.

Buffalo’s tertiary options at wide receiver are not really fantasy-relevant options despite the plus matchup. I don’t want to start Trent Sherfield, Deonte Hardy, or Khalil Shakir. If I had to choose one, it’d be Hardy since he’s been the most involved through the first three games, but I don’t want to play any of them. I’m not that desperate to get this game into my lineup.

Tight Ends

Durham Smythe looked like he might be a fantasy-relevant option after recording seven targets in Week 1, but he has since fallen off the radar with three targets in Week 2 and one target in Week 3. If he can’t get involved in a game where his team puts up ten touchdowns, then I don’t really want a piece of him otherwise. I’m looking elsewhere for a streaming tight-end target despite the high-scoring potential.

The Bills have been running more 12-personnel this year than they have in years prior, and that’s primarily due to them having two solid tight-end options. Dawson Knox is still very much a part of Buffalo’s offense, much to the chagrin of Dalton Kincaid‘s managers. Knox has 11 targets on the year compared to Kincaid’s 12. Without Kincaid having a sole tight-end role, neither Knox nor Kincaid offers much in the way of reliability or upside for fantasy. As long as they continue to run out two tight-end formations and Allen continues to spread the ball around, both Knox and Kincaid are high-risk, medium-reward players. I like the matchup, so if I’m desperate enough, I’ll start one of these guys. It’d probably be Kincaid over Knox, but the other’s involvement can’t be ignored.

This matchup could be one for the history books if both teams play to their potential. Join us as we get you ready for all the games this weekend. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram @FFFaceoff. We have daily articles, analysis, and podcasts, providing you with everything you need to dominate your fantasy matchups. Enjoy the show!

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