Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 9

Welcome back to this week’s edition of our fantasy football matchup of the week. Week 9 of the NFL signifies not just the halfway point of the regular season, but also the first week after the NFL trade deadline has passed. In years past, this meant a turning point for a number of teams as they made moves to set them up for postseason success or a future rebuild. This year, we saw a number of key defensive pieces change teams, quarterbacks be shuffled around within and between teams, and one organization, in particular, make substantial changes to their front office. It’s still to be seen whether or not the Raiders’ moves will improve their franchise, but it certainly seems like matters couldn’t get worse, especially for Davante Adams.

The first chance for them to prove themselves is this week against the New York Giants. Thankfully for you, though, I’m not featuring them as my Matchup of the Week. I’ll be curious to see how they fare, but my attention and focus will be solely on the matchup of the week. Some honorable mentions for this week include the Cowboys at the Eagles and the Bill at the Bengals. Both of these games will showcase some of the best talent and offense the NFL has to offer. Even still, they pale in comparison to this possible preview of an AFC Championship. My Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is none other than the Dolphins and Chiefs.

Week 9 Bye Weeks: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I will admit that this game has certainly lost some of its allure with the Dolphins and Chiefs both disappointing of late, but football fans of all breeds can appreciate just how talented they are and how impressive they can be when they show up and choose greatness.  This matchup features this year’s best offense versus last year’s best offense, and despite Kansas City being held to just 9 points last week, they have the coaching and weapons to stack up against anyone. Let’s break this game down, position by position:

Quarterbacks

In victories this year, Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 320 passing yards and 3 touchdowns a game. In his two losses, he averaged 249 yards with only one touchdown a game. This begs the question: is Miami going to win this game? The initial outlook doesn’t look good. Kansas City is much improved on defense than in years past, only giving up 176 passing yards a game, good for 2nd in the NFL. One could easily foresee a game where Tagovailoa struggles and Miami loses, giving us cause for concern over his outlook.

Regardless, there still exists the world where Tua comes ready to play and piles up the points. If that happens, and he throws for 300-3 plus, you’d be sorry you left him on your bench. Personally, I’ll take the risk and put him in my lineup hoping for the offensive slugfest that this game can project to be. I’d play Tua over Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert.

Think about the last time you were sick. Maybe you’re sick right now. Think about how sluggish, weak, and foggy you felt. Now think about going and quarterbacking an NFL football game in 20-degree weather a mile above sea level. That was Patrick Mahomes‘ reality on Sunday, and for all the heroism and no-look passes he’s known for, he showed us that he’s human too. He had his worst game of the year, and understandably so. I’m giving him a free pass though. He’s Patrick Mahomes. Assuming he’s healthy, Mahomes should return to form and rise to the occasion of the matchup, the NFL’s second-ever game in Germany. Fire up the overall QB1 for the week with confidence. 

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert has been dealing with an ankle injury for over a week now. Last week, he missed Wednesday’s practice, then logged limited practices Thursday and Friday en route to a questionable tag on Sunday. He ended up playing and rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. This week, he kicks off his practice preparations with a DNP on Wednesday, most likely just a veteran maintenance day. As long as he can return to practice in some capacity, he should be good to face Kansas City’s 7th-ranked rushing defense. Expectations should certainly be tempered, and you’re really hoping he can continue his hot streak of touchdowns.

A few more obstacles for Mostert come in the form of Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed. While neither player is really a threat to Mostert’s starting job, they both are getting enough run to be cautious of Mostert’s productivity. Wilson Jr. ran for 23 yards on five carries, while Ahmed rushed twice for one yard, but caught four of four passes for 16 yards. Wilson Jr. and Ahmed were tied with 19 snaps a piece while Mostert logged 43 offensive snaps. In this tough matchup, neither Wilson Jr. nor Ahmed should be in play. They don’t have the same explosiveness as Devon Achane does, so playing Miami’s RB2 is not wise at this time.

Isiah Pacheco had a down week, primarily due to the game script. The Broncos went up early and stayed up on the backs of their defense forcing five turnovers. Pacheco still led the backfield in touches but only managed 40 yards on eight carries. Despite the bad game, Pacheco’s been a solid RB2 option for fantasy, scoring double-digit points for 5 weeks straight in PPR formats. I like Pacheco to have more opportunities in this one,  certainly closer to the 19 he’s been averaging over that same five-game stretch. I’d play Pacheco over Tony Pollard, Kenneth Walker III, and his backfield counterpart, Raheem Mostert.

Wide Receivers

Miami

It must be frustrating to be a defensive coordinator and to see a player like Tyreek Hill lined up across from your guys. You try to double team him, you roll a safety over top, you try to play three high; none of it matters, Hill is unguardable.  Week in and week out he runs through defenses and makes it look like Pop Warner football. Hill has already surpassed 1,000 yards and we’re barely at the midway point of the season. He’s scored a touchdown in every game this season, except one. So long as nothing significant changes in this offense, Hill is my WR1 the rest of the way. Start him.

After a slow start to the season, Jaylen Waddle has begun to round into form over the last month, racking up 25 catches on 37 targets for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last four games. Waddle provides the perfect compliment to Hill, handling the leftover defensive attention with ease. The Chiefs have been stout against wide receivers, 6th best on the year, but I view Waddle as I view Mostert and Tagovailoa. There’s certainly risk to be had here, but the offensive potential is too juicy to pass up. I’m starting Waddle with confidence over Mike Evans, Chris Olave, and Davante Adams.

Braxton Berrios and Cedrick Wilson Jr. are not viable fantasy options despite the powerhouse matchup. There are much better longshot options on the waiver wire this week like Demario Douglas, KJ Osborn, or Rashid Shaheed.

Kansas City

The wide receiving options for the Chiefs have been an enigma all season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Justin Watson have all been vying for the number one overall target for Patrick Mahomes since the season started. Now throw Mecole Hardman Jr. back into the mix after a recent trade with the New York Jets, and you have the makings of a full-blown “more is not always better” situation.

If I had to arrange them in terms of pecking order and fantasy viability, I’d go with Rice, Watson, MVS, Moore, Toney, and Hardman Jr. In that order. With that said, Rice is the only player I’d actually consider starting in a fantasy lineup. All the other options are fool’s gold; they may look shiny and attractive being tied to Mahomes and Andy Reid, but they’ll only disappoint you. Against Miami’s 10th-best matchup for wide receivers, Rice is an option I’d consider over Jakobi Meyers, Gabe Davis, and Diontae Johnson.

Tight Ends

The Dolphins aren’t accustomed to utilizing the tight end position in their passing attack in the same fashion as their matchup counterpart. In fact, Durham Smythe, the Dolphins’ starting tight end, is ranked 38th in terms of fantasy points scored at the tight end position. 38th! There are only 32 teams in the NFL. That means that every other team’s starting TE and an additional six backup TEs have all outperformed Smythe for fantasy. If that’s not a reason to stay away from Miami’s TE option, I don’t know what is.

As bad as Smythe is for fantasy football, that’s how great Travis Kelce is for fantasy. He is the face of the position, although some may believe that’s only because “Taylor Swift put him on the map.”  Kelce’s personal life aside, he has been a dominant force in the NFL for years, and he’s been a staple in fantasy lineups for the better part of a decade. He is the polar opposite of what Smythe is, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kelce put up over 150 yards and two touchdowns Sunday morning. Be happy if you have him. He’s going to eat.

Las Vegas currently has this game as a 50.5 over/under with the Chiefs favored by 1.5 points. This game has the potential to be an absolute fireworks display or an utter disappointment. This will be a good litmus test for both teams to determine what sort of playoff run they can make. If you want to make a playoff run of your own, follow me @WSFilosofee and @FFFaceoff on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. We have all the advice, rankings, and tools that you need to get you into the playoffs and all the way to a fantasy title. Good luck and high scoring!

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