As quickly as the 2023 NFL season started, we’re already heading into the third round of the NFL Playoffs. With Conference Championship Weekend kicking off, it’s time to get into some of our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week.
This year, we have some exciting matchups to monitor for the Conference Championship games. For the AFC, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be heading on the road to face off against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. In the NFC Championship, we have Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions visiting Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers.
Free NFL Picks – Conference Championship
Conference Championship Weekend is officially upon us. I cannot believe just three games remain in the 2023 NFL Season. Before we get into the picks for this week, I want to dive into the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. What we are witnessing is truly special. Fresh off a win over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, the Texas native won his first road playoff game. He completed 17 of his 23 passes for 215 yards while also finding tight end Travis Kelce for two touchdown scores.
The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player is set to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to their sixth straight AFC Championship Game. This is a feat that has been accomplished only one other time in league history by the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots. Furthermore, when you look at the ridiculously stacked level of elite quarterback play in the AFC, it makes the feat that much more impressive.
And if the 28-year-old can lead his team back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons and win the third ring of his legendary career, it will be time to call this run by Kansas City a true dynasty. Coming off a 2-2 record on Divisional Round Weekend, here are the picks.
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Tasked with playing the first playoff game of his career away from Arrow Head Stadium, Mahomes was up to the test. The two-time Super Bowl MVP led scoring drives on five of Kansas City’s six possessions, not including kneel-downs before the end of the first half. This included a four-yard touchdown run by Isiah Pacheco to take the lead for good at the start of the fourth quarter.
Baltimore outlasted the surging Houston Texans after heading into halftime deadlocked at 10. The Ravens scored 24 unanswered points, including 17 in the fourth quarter, en route to a 34-10 victory. Guided by the play of Lamar Jackson, the perennial MVP front-runner accounted for all of the team’s touchdowns. He threw for two while running for two more on the ground.
Mahomes and Kelce have been able to make up for the Chief’s lack of playmakers. Nonetheless, Baltimore’s defense has been the best unit in the NFL all season. The group leads the league in both passing yards allowed (175.0) and rushing yards allowed (38.0). They also can adapt their scheme to match their opponent under defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. This is paired with Jackson’s ability to beat teams with his arms and legs. Take the points and bet on the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens (-4)
Detroit Lions (+7.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
The NFC’s number one seed, San Francisco, got all it could handle from the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers. Following a missed field goal from rookie kicker Anders Carlson, Christian McCaffrey capped off a 69-yard drive with a six-yard game-winning touchdown run. The 49ers will not host the NFC Championship Game after losing the previous two on the road.
Continuing on their dream season, the Lions outlasted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. Jared Goff threw two touchdown passes, including one to star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, with 6:22 left to take the lead. Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense stepped up and made plays to seal the game late. Derrick Barnes intercepted Baker Mayfield late to close out the victory and send the franchise back to the Conference Championship for the first time since 1991 and just the second time in its history.
San Francisco enters into this one with the better roster. Furthermore, the team got a much-needed injury boost. Deebo Samuel is off the injury report for the contest. He left the game early on against the Packers after suffering a shoulder injury. Despite this, Detroit remains stout against the run, allowing them to limit McCaffrey and the 49ers running game. Along with this, while the Lions still have struggled on the back end, Goff and company can score points in bunches. This will allow them to go toe to toe with Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s high-powered offense. In a matchup that should be close all afternoon long, 7.5 points is too big a number.
Pick: Lions (+7.5)
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