In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season, last Sunday we saw a big-time upset with the New York Giants knocking off the Washington Commanders 31-19. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. This weekend features games on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. I want to shout out to the Philadelphia Eagles before we get into the picks. Fresh off a come-from-behind victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in a rematch of Super Bowl 57, Nick Sirianni’s group stormed back after trailing by ten points at the half. What makes this so impressive is that despite not playing their best football yet, the defending NFC champions continue to show resiliency and find ways to win ugly. Despite throwing for a season-low 150 yards, Jalen Hurts scored two touchdowns on the ground.

Furthermore, the former second-round pick made the play of the game when he found Devonta Smith for a 41-yard gain late to set up the go-ahead score. Now up to 9-1 for the second consecutive season, the Eagles sit 1.5 games clear of the Detroit Lions for the top seed in the conference. With games against the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys on tap over the next three weeks, Philadelphia will need to keep its situational brilliance and mental toughness if the franchise hopes to earn home-field advantage again in the postseason. Looking to get right after a 2-4 Week 11, here are the picks for Week 12.

Free NFL Picks – Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans (+1.5)

Following their blowout loss to the 49ers, the Jaguars got back on track after beating the Titans a week ago. Led by the play of Trevor Lawrence, the former number-one overall pick put together his finest performance of the season. He completed 24 of his 32 passes for 262 yards while accounting for four touchdowns.

Continuing to be the talk of the NFL, the Texans extended their win streak to three games in an ugly win over the Arizona Cardinals. Despite throwing for a season-high three interceptions, Demeco Ryan’s defense was able to stand tall and bail out C.J. Stroud late. Cornerback Steven Nelson batted down Kyler Murray’s pass on fourth-and-8. Houston won the first matchup between these two teams in Week 3. The team has now won four of its last five matchups against the Jaguars. Look for them to continue to roll on Sunday as Stroud makes his case for the league MVP award.

Pick: Texans (+1.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5)

Aiming to keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens in the ultra-tough AFC North, Pittsburgh fell to the Cleveland Browns minus Deshaun Watson. Once again unable to move the ball offensively, the Steelers recorded just 106 passing yards while being outgained for the 10th week in a row. As a result, the team chose to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada on Tuesday.

Cincinnati will not have Joe Burrow. They announced the former NFL Comeback Player of the Year would miss the rest of the season due to a right wrist injury that will likely require surgery. Forced to turn to backup quarterback Jake Browning, the Washington Huskies product will have his hands full against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks third in the NFL in takeaways (19) and seventh in points allowed per game (19.5). In what is sure to be a low-scoring defensive battle in which points are hard to come by, swallow the 1.5 and take the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers (-1.5)

Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

In their first game under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills snapped their two-game losing streak following a 32-6 victory over the New York Jets. Buffalo topped 25 points for the first time in seven weeks. Josh Allen tossed three touchdown scores, including an 81-yard strike to Khalil Shakir.

Currently the only one-loss team across the NFL, the Eagles got their revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl 57. They knocked off Patrick Mahomes and company in Arrowhead 21-17. After trailing by ten at halftime, Philadelphia’s defense pitched a shutout in the second half. Currently, on the outside looking in the playoff picture in the AFC, Buffalo should have a heightened sense of urgency this week as they need to make up for a string of bad losses early in the year. In the upset of the week, give me the road team.

Pick: Bills (+3)

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+10)

Despite holding onto the top spot in the AFC West, the Chiefs continue to struggle offensively. Kansas City fell to the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The reigning Super Bowl champions have now been shut out in the second half in three straight games. Furthermore, they also lead the league in dropped passes (26).

Playing hard under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas nearly played spoiler against one of the league’s top offenses in Miami. The team forced three turnovers, including an interception of Tua Tagovailoa. However, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey intercepted rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell in the end zone to spoil the comeback bid. Las Vegas will likely be tough against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense which ranks top five in the NFL in both yards and points allowed per game. Nonetheless, Kansas City has run hot and cold as the team looks to find a second option behind Travis Kelce. Ten points is too big a number.

Pick: Raiders (+10)

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (O/U 37)

Days after losing Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury, Dorian Thompson-Robinson bounced back from his first NFL start since Week 4. The UCLA product led the Browns on a clutch final drive. He completed four straight passes to set up a game-winning kick for Dustin Hopkins, leading Cleveland to advance to 7-3.

The hottest team in the NFL, Denver, has won five straight games, following their 1-5 start to the season. The Broncos knocked off the Green Bay Packers and Chiefs. This was before picking up back-to-back prime-time victories over the Bills and Minnesota Vikings. Nonetheless, Sean Payton’s group still ranks 24th in the league in passing yards per game (191) and 15th in points per game (21.7). Paired with the dominant stretch of play from Cleveland’s defense, points will be hard to come by in this one.

Pick: Under 37

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 48)

Behind the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is in sole possession of the top spot in the AFC. Thriving in his first year under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the 26-year-old remains one of the front runners for the league’s MVP award. He is completing a career-high 69.5% of his passes for 2,441 yards and 17 total touchdowns.

Los Angeles’s season is beginning to slip away on the heels of their 23-20 loss to the Packers. Once again unable to get off the field late, the Chargers allowed Jordan Love to eclipse 300 yards passing for the first time in his young career. Meanwhile, Green Bay also went 7-14 on third downs, averaging nearly six yards per play. Expect Jackson to have his way against a Brandon Staley defense that is searching for answers. Justin Herbert should supply enough points to push this total over the number.

Pick: Over 48

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