In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season, we’ve seen multiple big storylines such as quarterback Joe Burrow being out for the rest of the season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

This week, we finally get quality prime-time games after undergoing a series of duds over the past few weeks. Before we dive into the picks, I want to tip my cap to the Detroit Lions and, more specifically, their head coach.

After entering this season with doubts about Dan Campbell and his ability to elevate the franchise from the basement of the NFC, I thought the former tight end would be another member of the Bills Parcels coaching tree who believes in smashmouth football and an archaic way of thinking. Instead, after searching for someone to lead the franchise out of the basement of the NFC, they seem to have been in for the better part of three decades; one thing has become clear to me: Detroit has their guy.

Teams on Bye: Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans

Fresh off a masterful coaching performance against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, Campbell went for it on fourth down five times during the victory. The biggest one came when the Lions faced a fourth-and-2 from the Chargers 26 with 1:47 remaining in a tie game.

Instead of kicking the field goal and giving Justin Herbert plenty of time to drive for the tying or go-ahead score, Campbell elected to go for it and was rewarded when Jared Goff found rookie tight end Sam Laporta for the first down. Detroit then ran the clock out and won the game on the final play to advance to 7-2, their best start since 2014. Fresh off a 2-3-1 Week 10, here are the picks for Week 11.

Free NFL Picks – Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

Still sitting atop the AFC East at 6-3, Miami is coming off a bye. Last seen losing to the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in Germany, it was a sloppy, mistake-filled afternoon for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins high powered passing attack. He threw for a season-low 193 yards. This led the team to be shut out in the first half for the first time since week 2 of the 2021 season.

Now under the guidance of Antonio Pierce, the Raiders advanced to 2-0 under the interim head coach following a win over the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. Hanging on in the game’s final moments, linebacker Robert Spillane intercepted Zach Wilson at his 15-yard line to seal the win. Finally appearing as if they have things figured out under Pierce, Las Vegas has been one of the great stories around the league recently.

Nonetheless, Miami will be eager to get right after falling to the Chiefs. Mike McDaniel’s group is averaging over 30 points per game at home. They win in a blowout and this is one of the best bets you can make in Week 11.

Pick: Dolphins (-13.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) vs. Cleveland Browns (-1)

The Steelers continued their theme of finding a way to win against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Despite being outgained for the ninth consecutive time this season, Pittsburgh’s defense shined late. Patrick Peterson tipped Jordan Love’s pass into the hands of safety Keanu Neal in the end zone. Jaylen Warren led the way on the ground in a more expanded role on offense. He rushed for a career-high 101 yards and a touchdown.

Playing spoiler against the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland snapped the team’s winning streak on a walk-off field goal by Dustin Hopkins. The franchise received disappointing news on Wednesday after news came out that Deshaun Watson would miss the rest of the year after undergoing shoulder surgery. Forced to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Brown’s stout defense should be able to keep them in contests down the stretch. Nonetheless, Mike Tomlin is 28-5 against rookie quarterbacks who are making their first start against him. Take the points and roll with Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers (+1)

Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1)

Seattle remains deadlocked with the San Francisco 49ers for the top spot in the NFC West. Set to enter the toughest stretch of their schedule; the Seahawks will battle the 49ers twice over the next four weeks. Furthermore, they also have matchups against the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Suddenly, 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Vikings for the final wild-card spot in the NFC, Los Angeles has lost three straight. Likely to have Matthew Stafford back this week, the veteran quarterback missed the team’s last matchup against the Packers due to a thumb injury. Seattle’s defense is full of star power in the secondary, featuring names like Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. Nevertheless, they rank 23rd in pass DVOA, leaving them vulnerable to a big game from the Rams receiver duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Paired with the dominance of Sean Mcvay over Pete Caroll during his coaching tenure, I like the upset in this one.

Pick: Rams (+1)

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

In a rematch of Super Bowl 57, the Eagles will travel to Arrow Head Stadium to battle the Chiefs. This is one of the most highly anticipated games of the season. Both teams are coming off a bye. Philadelphia is currently holding onto the top record in football as the only one-loss club in the league. Most recently, knocking off the Dallas Cowboys in a massive divisional battle, they made multiple defensive stands in the fourth quarter to secure the victory.

Once again, atop the AFC at 7-2, Kansas City has won seven of its last eight games after dropping their season opener to the Lions. They have been guided by the play of their much-improved young defense. Steve Spagnuolo’s group ranks fourth in total yards (307.4) and first in points (15.9). It is hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home. Philadelphia enters this game as the more complete football team. Look for them to come away victorious and exact revenge.

Pick: Eagles (+2.5)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (O/U 48)

For Chicago, all eyes will be on Justin Fields. The former 11th overall pick will start on Sunday for the first time since October 15th. He missed the last four games due to a thumb injury. Entering the game on a few extra days rest, the Bears outlasted the Carolina Panthers 16-13 on Thursday Night Football. Tyson Bagent completed 20 of 33 passes for 162 yards in his fourth start in a row for the team.

Detroit edged out the Chargers in a shootout 41-38. The Lions racked up 533 total yards of offense, including 200 on the ground. Furthermore, Amon Ra St. Brown set a new career high with eight catches for 156 receiving yards. He became the first Lions receiver since Calvin Johnson to eclipse 100 receiving yards in four straight games. Chicago’s offense should look much more dynamic following the return of Fields. Both of these teams are ranked inside the top five in the league in rushing yards per game as they remain committed to keeping the ball on the ground and controlling the clock. Play the under on a high total.

Pick: Under 48

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers (O/U 44)

In a rare interconference matchup, the Chargers and Packers will meet for the first time since 2019. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory, with their playoff hopes beginning to slip away. Los Angeles could not get a stop late against the Lions a week ago. They gave up over 500 yards of total offense while failing to record a sack.

Green Bay nearly upset the Steelers a week ago. The Packers failed to take the lead late on several opportunities. In one of his finest performances of the season, Love completed 21 of his 40 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns. This included a 35-yard strike to rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed. With both of these teams featuring suspect defenses, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair at Lambeau Field.

Pick: Over 44

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