Free NFL Picks and Best Bets – Wild Card Weekend (2024)
As quickly as the 2023 NFL season started, we’re already heading into the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend kicking off, it’s time to get into some of our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week.
As we head into Wild Card Weekend, we saw a big-time upset in an AFC South showdown last Sunday. The Tennesee Titans edged out the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-20 behind a big day from Derrick Henry. This eliminated Trevor Lawrence and company from playoff contention. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.
Free NFL Picks – Wild Card Weekend
The start of the 2023 NFL playoffs is here. There is no shortage of storylines in this week’s games. This Super Wild Card Weekend is shaping up to be among the best in recent memory. Starting on Sunday Night Football, how poetic is it that Matthew Stafford is returning to Ford Field to battle the Detroit Lions in the franchise’s first home playoff game in 30 years?
Set to make his first trip back to Michigan since famously being traded for Jared Goff, either the 35-year-old will sink the hearts of the franchise that drafted him number one overall in 2009, or Goff will enact some sweet revenge on the Los Angeles Rams after they decided to move off the University of California product.
Furthermore, how about the Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys matchup? Highlighted by the battle between Mike McCarthy and his former team, all eyes will be on the 60-year-old head coach as he aims to get the Cowboys over the postseason hump. The youngest playoff team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills, Green Bay enters January as one of the hottest teams in football behind the playoff of first-year starter Jordan Love, making them a dangerous opponent. Coming off a 4-2 week, here are the picks.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5)
Houston captured its first AFC South division crown behind first-year head coach Demeco Ryans and rookie sensation C.J. Stroud. The Texans knocked off the Indianapolis Colts 26-19 while getting the help they needed from the Jaguars, who fell to the Titans. Set to face a fierce Browns defense, Jim Scwartz’s group finished 1st in the NFL in opponent passing yards per game (1647.7) and total yards per game (270.2).
Quickly becoming a fan favorite in Cleveland since signing with the franchise in November, Joe Flacco has become one of the feel-good stories around the league. The 38-year-old remains undefeated as a starter while leading the Browns to five straight wins. He has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns.
This is a rematch between these two teams in the first game of Wild Card Weekend. Cleveland defeated the Texans 36-22 on Christmas Eve behind a career day from Amari Cooper. However, Stroud missed the game due to a concussion. Even with Stroud fully healthy, the youth of Houston will take some time to get accustomed to the playoff stage.
Pick: Browns (-2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Pittsburgh needed a win over the Baltimore Ravens to keep their postseason hopes alive. They knocked off the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens 17-10. Furthermore, the team clinched a playoff spot following the Jaguar’s loss to the Titans. Heading to Buffalo as significant underdogs, the Steelers will be without their star pass rusher T.J. Watt. The current NFL sack leader has already been ruled out for the game after suffering a Grade 2 MCL sprain.
Sitting at 6-6 following their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills rattled off four straight wins after their bye week to capture their fourth straight AFC East title. This included a 21-14 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football to clinch the division crown. Guided by the play of Josh Allen, the former seventh overall pick has once again entered his name into the MVP conversation. He has accounted for 4,830 yards while recording his fourth consecutive season of 40 total touchdowns.
The weather will be an obstacle on Sunday. Forecasts are calling for a temperature of 26 degrees at kickoff, with possible snow showers. Moreover, there is also the anticipation of 25-mph wind and gusts that could reach up to 50 mph. Mike Tomlin remains one of the most profitable coaches of all time against the spread as an underdog. He has a record of 143-127-5. Take the points and back the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers (+9.5)
Green Bay Packers (+7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Green Bay moved off Aaron Rodgers in the offseason and pivoted to Love after waiting three years in the wings. The Utah State product exceeded all expectations in his first year as a starter. He finished seventh in the league in passing yards (4,159) and second in passing touchdowns (32). Moreover, Love led the Packers to wins in their last three straight games, including a win in a game against an NFC North divisional rival in Week 18, something Rodgers could not do a season ago.
On the heels of the Philadelphia Eagles’ struggles in the second half of the season, the Cowboys captured the NFC East for the second time in three seasons. Enjoying one of the best home-field advantages across the NFL, the team averaged 39.9 points per game at AT&T Stadium vs 8.2 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, Dan Quinn’s defense was once again one of the top units in the game. Continuing to wreak havoc on opposing offenses, Micah Parsons racked up 14 sacks. Second-year cornerback Daron Bland also led the league in interceptions (6).
Dallas has excelled at home this season, going 8-0 and 6-2 against the spread. The team’s defense has gotten back in a groove by relentlessly pressuring and making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, the connection between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb has quickly risen into one of the best in the game. Be that as it may, Love and company come into this game red hot while playing good football themselves. Paired with Dallas’s recent postseason woes, look for Green Bay to keep this one close all game long.
Pick: Packers (+7)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Once the top team in the NFL, the Eagles started 10-1 for the second straight year. However, Philadelphia has undergone a complete free fall over the last month and a half. Losers of five of their last six games heading into the postseason, Nick Sirianni’s group was embarrassed by the New York Giants 27-10 on Sunday. Making matters worse for the defending NFC Champions, star wide receiver AJ Brown suffered a knee injury, leaving him out for the game.
Tampa Bay underwent a 2023 season filled with ups and downs. The Buccaneers were sitting at 4-7 in Week 13 on the back of a 1-6 stretch. Nevertheless, the team caught fire and rattled off five wins in its last six games to capture its third straight NFC South title. Set to get a rematch against the Eagles, Philadelphia defeated the Buccaneers 25-11 in Week 3 while rushing for 201 yards.
Philadelphia has a far better roster on paper. Despite that, they come into this game struggling on both sides of the football while looking far from the team that came a few plays from winning the Super Bowl a year ago. Tampa Bay has played good football down the stretch, and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should be able to make plays against the Eagles secondary. This one has upset written all over it.
Pick: Buccaneers (+3)
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 43.5)
Miami was on an inside track for the number one seed in the conference and its first AFC East title in 15 years. Instead, after losing their final two games of the season, the Dolphins will play on the road if they hope to make a Super Bowl run. Entering Saturday with a mounting list of injuries, the team has already lost both Jalen Phillips and Bradley Chubb to season-ending injuries. Along with this, cornerback Xavien Howard and safeties DeShon Elliott and Jevon Holland are all questionable after not practicing all week.
While they have looked far from the Kansas City teams from previous seasons, the Chiefs still locked up their 8th straight AFC West title. Unlike in past years when they relied on Patrick Mahomes and their high-powered offense, it has largely been the play of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense that has carried the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Among the best units ever under Andy Reid, the group ranks second in the NFL in points per game (17.1) and yards per game (289.8).
Either team in this game is capable of an offensive explosion or a big play at any moment. Nonetheless, with a mounting list of injuries on the offensive side of the ball for the Dolphins, both Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are still not at full strength after missing last week’s game. On the other hand, Kansas City’s pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce cannot be trusted to make plays consistently. Furthermore, temperatures are set to be around 0 degrees, with a wind chill approaching -30 at kickoff. This makes it one of the coldest games in NFL history. In what projects to be a low-scoring hard, fought battle in sub-zero conditions, play the under in this one.
Pick: Under 43.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (O/U 52)
Los Angeles has exceeded all expectations this season. The Rams had just a 6.5 win total in Vegas before the start of the season. Many expected them to pick in the top ten in the NFL Draft. Instead, after a brief one-year hiatus, Sean Mcvay’s team qualified for the postseason by winning double-digit games for the third time in four seasons. They have won seven of their last eight matchups. Stafford has been red-hot during the second half of the year. He ranks sixth in passer rating (104.5) and third in touchdown passes (16).
Winners of the NFC North for the first time since 1993, Detroit knocked off the Minnesota Vikings 30-20 in Week 18 to capture the number three seed in the conference. They were once again one of the most explosive offenses across the NFL. The Lion’s two-headed rushing tandem of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 1,960 yards and 23 touchdowns.
This is the most circled game on the Wild Card Weekend calendar. Both of these teams have many offensive playmakers and can put up points in a hurry. Along with this, each club has struggled mightily in the secondary. This leaves them vulnerable to big plays against two high-end quarterbacks. In what has all the makings of an all-time postseason classic, play the over in this one.
Pick: Over 52
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