Free NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets – Divisional Round (2024)
Super Wildcard Weekend is in the books. While the games themselves were a bit of a letdown, it was still good to see NFL Playoff football. Today, we’re breaking down some of the best bets you should be targeting in the NFL Divisional Round this week. With that comes the opportunity to turn a little profit. Let’s get into it. Here are my best bets for this weekend in the NFL, as well as a few player prop bets.
Free NFL Picks – Divisional Round NFL Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Houston Texans
-110 (DraftKings) Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
C.J. Stroud had an incredible performance in his playoff debut last week against the Browns. While Cleveland’s defense ranked well across key metrics, they had performed poorly on the road all year. The matchup this week is an entirely different animal.
The Ravens possess the number one overall defense in the league in terms of DVOA. I expect Houston’s offensive front to struggle to protect Stroud and force him into a few bad decisions.
Furthermore, I believe Houston can find some success on the ground this week which could be their saving grace. In the end, Baltimore’s defense will be too much for Stroud.
Baltimore’s offense has taken off in recent weeks, and I look for that trend to continue in this matchup. Houston’s secondary is vulnerable as they surrendered the tenth most passing yards per game in the regular season. With Mark Andrews’ expected return to the lineup, we could see the Ravens’ offense explode once again.
The Texans have been a great story, but this is too much to ask. The hype train will be brought back to the shed for repairs. Personally, I’d back the league’s expected MVP to cover this number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs. Detroit Lions
-110 (BetMGM) Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
This is a prime letdown spot for the Lions. Detroit is fresh off their first playoff victory in thirty-two years. They celebrated hard and might come into this game feeling themselves a little too much. I hope they didn’t party too hard as they’re welcoming in a Buccaneers team that has vastly overachieved expectations all year.
Detroit’s run defense has been one of the best all season, but their secondary has been exposed at times. Most recently, Puka Nacua went 9-181-1 just last week. If Tampa Bay’s offensive line can hold up, I expect Baker Mayfield to have success. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin present matchup problems for the Lions’ corners.
Detroit’s passing weapons will pose a major issue for Tampa Bay’s defense, but I believe Tampa Bay has the tools needed to hang with Detroit in case this game gets squirrely.
Tampa Bay can hang around in a low-scoring defensive struggle, and they have the weapons to keep it close in a shootout. The only way I see this game getting out of hand is if Mayfield struggles, and I do not see that. Back the underdogs to keep it close.
Free NFL Player Prop Bets
Devin Singletary Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
-115 (DraftKings) Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
I alluded to this pick in my analysis of the Ravens/Texans game earlier. Singletary has enjoyed a career year en route to posting the highest rushing yards total of his career.
While Baltimore ranks 7th in terms of rush DVOA, they have struggled in recent weeks.
The #Ravens allowed a 100-yard rusher in 3 of 4 games from Weeks 14-17.
Kyren Williams 25-114-0
Christian McCaffrey 14-103-1
De’Von Achane 14-107-0RBs averaged 5.3 YPC vs. Baltimore over that span.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) January 15, 2024
All things considered, I like this spot for Singletary to surpass this line. Additionally, I do not expect the Texans to ask the world of C.J. Stroud in this matchup. I think that’s a tough ask for a rookie in his first road playoff game. However, I do expect them to turn to Singletary and their run game as a way to keep this one close.
Furthermore, I prefer this prop as opposed to Singletary’s rush attempts as I think there is a chance the Texans’ run game gets scripted out completely. A few long runs would help us get there in case the Ravens pull away. If the Texans do manage to keep this game competitive, then I would be highly surprised if Singletary did not hit this number.
Rachaad White Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
-120 (PointsBet) Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
While White enjoyed a very nice season, the reality is that he has been one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL. He ranks dead last among qualified rushers in Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) and 45th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT). Additionally, White ranked 46th in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grade among qualified backs.
Factor in that the Lions ranked first in defensive rush DVOA and second in rush yards allowed per game, this game appears to be a matchup nightmare for White.
The best-case scenario for White to hit this prop is if Tampa Bay gets out to a huge lead and White hits this total on volume alone. The problem is even if the Buccaneers do jump ahead, we have seen White fail to hit totals like this even on twenty-plus carries.
This is just a bad matchup. All things considered, just take the under.
Christian Watson Most Receiving Yards in Divisional Round
+14000 (DraftKings) Risk .02 Units to Win 2.8 Units
Okay, let me be clear with this bet. This is a total flyer for a reason. I do not expect the Packers to be able to hang with the 49ers in this game. However, when trying to find inefficiencies in lines, we do have to account for the possibility that Green Bay could pull off another playoff upset. They have arguably the hottest quarterback currently in the playoffs.
I think the Packers have a major mismatch in this game facing San Francisco’s front four. However, if their offensive line can hold up in pass protection, San Francisco’s secondary is beatable for big plays. That is where Christian Watson can thrive. He has been a big play threat since the day he entered the league.
Watson barely played last week taking the field for only 41% of offensive snaps. I would think this had to do with the Packers easing him back into things after missing several weeks with a nagging hamstring injury. Ultimately, he will most certainly need to see more action for this bet to hit.
Moreover, we are looking for a very specific game script for a long shot like this. It’s possible we could get that if things break right for the Packers. This game has the highest total currently on the board, so there is reason to suggest points will be scored.
The nice part about this prop is it could hit in a competitive game script if Green Bay is ahead. Or if Green Bay is forced to play catch-up. If, and again it’s a BIG if, Green Bay can find a way to keep Jordan Love clean, then we will have a chance. Just note the unit size we are risking here. We never want to risk large units on longshots such as these. Good luck this week and let’s take down some cash!
Quick Links
Top 24 Dynasty RB Rankings
2024 NFL Draft Big Board
NFL Top 10 Lists
Fantasy Football Team Names
Connect and Engage with the Show:
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Visit us on the Web
- Follow us on Facebook
- Follow on Twitter
- Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
- Follow on Instagram
- Subscribe on Google Podcasts
- Subscribe on Spotify
Join our Communities:
