Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
The 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the season with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business with the second round of playoff matchups.
Saturday kicks off the Divisional Round and the second round of the NFL playoffs. The first contest is between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens. We finish the slate with a contest between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers.
While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Saturday’s Divisional Round games.
All props and odds are from DraftKings.
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C.J. Stroud Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I had Stroud over 245.5 passing yards in my article for last week’s game. The rookie quarterback easily hit the over, totaling 274 passing yards on only 21 attempts, a career low. Yet, the over/under for his passing prop this week dropped by a few yards. The star quarterback averaged 273.9 passing yards per game during the regular season, the most in the NFL. Stroud averaged 316.7 passing yards per game in the final seven regular season contests he finished.
The former Ohio State star had at least 249 passing yards in 73.3% of the games he didn’t leave early this year, including last week. More importantly, Stroud had 242 passing yards against the Ravens in his career debut in Baltimore. The rookie has vastly improved since that contest despite losing multiple wide receivers to season-ending injuries. I don’t understand why the over/under on this prop bet isn’t higher. More aggressive bettors should bet Stroud’s alternate passing yard total at 275 or more at +185.
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-210)
Many still call Purdy a “system quarterback,” but the second-year star was one of the top guys in the NFL in 2023. He finished third with 31 passing touchdowns, only behind Dak Prescott and Jordan Love. However, the former Iowa State star was on track to finish second before sitting out the meaningless Week 18 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Purdy had a couple of rocky performances during the regular season, including in Week 16 against the Baltimore Ravens.
However, he was outstanding outside of that one matchup to end the year. The star quarterback averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game over the final five weeks, totaling at least two in all but the matchup against the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Packers surrendered 1.5 passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks over the last month of the regular season despite facing Bryce Young, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens in those contests. More importantly, Dak Prescott had three passing touchdowns against Green Bay on Wild Card Weekend.
Gus Edwards to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-110)
Baltimore had a first-round bye, giving them an extra week to prepare for Houston. They also locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs in Week 17, resulting in several key starters sitting out a meaningless Week 18 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Lamar Jackson is a critical part of the team’s rushing attack, Edwards has been a scoring machine. The veteran running back had 13 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, finishing fifth in the NFL.
More importantly, Edwards is the Ravens’ go-to guy at the goal line. He had 65.7% of the team’s rushing attempts and 75% of their rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line this season (per Fantasy Points Data), scoring on over half of his attempts. Meanwhile, the Texans struggled at the goal line. They surrendered the fourth-most rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line in the regular season. When Baltimore gets near the goal line, expect Edwards to get the ball and score a touchdown.
Nico Collins Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
While C.J. Stroud has been the biggest reason the Texans have a top-tier passing attack, Collins has also played a massive role in the team’s offensive success. The third-year wide receiver had 1,297 receiving yards during the regular season, the eighth-most in the NFL, and passing his career total entering the year. Furthermore, he averaged 86.5 receiving per game, totaling 80 or more in 57.1% of the contests he finished with Stroud. More importantly, the former Michigan star has stepped up lately.
Collins has averaged 140.5 receiving yards per game since Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury early in Week 13 against the Denver Broncos, totaling 80 or more in every contest he finished with Stroud under center. Unfortunately, Houston placed Noah Brown on injured reserve earlier this week, ending his season. Meanwhile, the Ravens did well slowing down opposing wide receivers this year. However, they gave up 80 receiving yards to Collins in the Week 1 matchup.
George Kittle Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The 49ers offense is loaded with offensive weapons. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel get most of the attention, but Kittle is a superstar. The veteran tight end averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game during the regular season, up 20.1% from the year before. Furthermore, he had his first season with over 1,000 receiving yards since 2019. Kittle had 54 or more receiving yards in 62.5% of the games this year, including all but one matchup at home.
Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense played hot and cold in 2023. Some weeks, they played well, and others, they struggled. Last week, Jake Ferguson obliterated Green Bay’s defense, totaling 10 receptions for 93 receiving yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, the Packers surrendered 60.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends over their final eight regular season contests, including 80 or more in three matchups. Expect Kittle to have an impressive performance on Saturday night.
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