Mike Evans: 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook and Consistency
For fantasy football managers, every season particular players stand out as ADP values while others seem like glaring traps waiting to leave a gaping black hole in your starting lineup. It’s going to be my mission in this series to highlight both of those types of players.
Additionally, that includes players of value and players to avoid. I’m going to attempt to steer clear of personal biases and stick to the numbers. Here, I’ll break down how fantasy stalwart Mike Evans is someone you should be targeting based on our Consistency Score.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Let’s address the stubbly bearded elephant in the room. Yes, Tom Brady is gone. It’s likely Baker Mayfield is now calling plays. And despite the fact that Brady was clearly declining before our eyes in 2023, it’s still a downgrade going from one of the best of all time to Mayfield. I get it, I don’t need you to “at me” on whatever your social media outrage machine of choice happens to be.
However, let’s also remember that Mayfield was once a number one overall pick in 2018. In his rookie season, he threw for over 3,700 yards and 27 touchdowns. Not to mention, made Jarvis Landry a top-20 fantasy receiver. In his sophomore campaign, he threw for over 3,800 yards and Landry was the 13th receiver overall in terms of fantasy points. Both of which were better seasons than Geno Smith ever had before last year.
Coaching Changes – Dave Canales
Which brings me to my next topic of change. The Buccaneers also changed their offensive coordinator, hiring Dave Canales from the Seattle Seahawks. Now the Seahawks haven’t been known for the most creative and electric offensives over the years. However, as the quarterback’s coach in 2022 for Seattle, he did coach up a resurrected and aforementioned Smith to his first career Pro Bown selection and “Most Improved Player” award by PFWA.
Before that, he was the Seahawks’ pass game coordinator in 2020. That season DK Metcalf set a franchise high with 1,303 receiving yards and was the seventh overall receiver in fantasy points. And at the same time, Tyler Lockett set a franchise record of 100 receptions and was the ninth-overall fantasy wide receiver.
Overall, recent history suggests Canales might be just the right coach to get the most out of Baker Mayfield. And more importantly, resurrect this Tampa Bay passing attack during life after Brady.
He’s Still Got It
While it was clear to anyone who watched the Buccaneers in 2022, that the offense simply wasn’t clicking on all cylinders, and both Evans and fellow stud receiver Chris Godwin felt like they let our rosters down. That really was more about our expectations heaped on the players than the stats they actually accumulated. And let’s remember, that’s all that really matters in fantasy football.
So let’s take a step back and examine the naked numbers.
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So despite playing in only 15 games, Evans still racked up over 1,000 receiving yards for the ninth straight season in a row, which ranked 12th among his fellow wideouts. His 12.4 fantasy points per game ranked 14th and his total fantasy points of 186.9 ranked 16th.
However, end-of-year numbers can be misleading at times. This is why I like to use our Consistency Score (CS) and our Player Analysis tools to get a more in-depth look at how a player’s season really impacted our rosters. Evans is a stalwart when it comes to CS leaders. He finished with a 5.25 CS in 2022 which ranked 9th among receivers. In 2021 his 4.69 ranked 9th. The year before that, it was 6.08 and he ranked 10th.
As a matter of fact, he’s never been outside the Top 20 in CS rankings and he’s even been No.2 overall at his position. Additionally, he ranked in the Top-24 of all receivers nearly 30% of all games played. Including a number one overall performance in Week 4 (26.3) and Championship Week 17 (43.7 fantasy points). When he was on the field, for the most part, was a solid play with week-winning potential.
Not Without Risk
Next, I wanted to take a look past “fantasy points per game”, as it too can be very misleading. So I took a look at his Median fantasy points last season, 7.9. And here he ranked only 41st.
Similarly, his 19.65 targets-per-route-run-% is a little lower than I prefer. Anything above 20% is the “safe zone” and >22% is pretty elite. Here he ranked 47th. Needless to say, not great.
Looking at the weekly trends, it just seems that some weeks he was either game-planned out or off Brady’s radar. He would have week after week with 20% or more Tgts/RR then suddenly dive bomb to nine or eight percent.
That does show some concern. But all things considered, it’s also not a deafening warning siren.
The ADP
The true kicker as to why you need to target Evans is his current ADP price tag. He’s currently going as the 30th receiver off the board, and the 71st player taken. That makes his ADP 5.09 right now and in a live Superflex slow draft I’m currently in at the time of this writing, he went at 8.07.
A player, who has never racked up less than 1,000 receiving yards and is still a red zone weapon, that you can grab with your fifth or sixth pick is a steal anytime. Even if you don’t like his quarterback. Let’s not forget, Evans is also the wide receiver who made everyone believe that Johnny Manziel was worth a first-round pick in the NFL Draft.
Pair that pedigree and clearance tag ADP with a promising new offensive coordinator and Evans should be every fantasy manager’s fever dream in the mid-rounds of their drafts.
Check out where Evans is currently ranked in our up-to-date fantasy football rankings.
Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related! If you’re a fantasy football content creator, please take advantage of the Consistency Score and use it in your content!
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