Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – 49ers vs Vikings

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 6 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, we all know that the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/21/23

Alexander Mattison Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Mattison struggled to start the year. However, he has played better since the Vikings added Cam Akers. Over the past four weeks, the former Boise State star has averaged 4.1 yards per rushing attempt. More importantly, his role in the passing game has grown. Mattison has averaged 17.3 receiving yards per game this season. Yet, he has averaged 20.8 yards per game over the past four weeks, totaling 20 or more receiving yards three times, including two straight.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Mattison had the highest target per route run rate last week among Vikings, with at least two routes run (39%). Furthermore, he finished second to T.J. Hockenson in target share (25.8% vs. 22.6%) in Week 6. Meanwhile, the 49ers have shut down opposing rushing attacks but haven’t done as well stopping running backs out of the backfield, giving up 33.5 receiving yards per game this year. They have surrendered 25 or more receiving yards to running backs in every game, including 31 or more four times.

Brock Purdy Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Last week, Purdy struggled against an elite Cleveland Browns defense, totaling only 125 passing yards. Not only were the 125 passing yards a season low but also a career low for the quarterback in a game where he had more than nine pass attempts. However, the second-year player was outstanding before last week’s matchup, averaging 254.2 passing yards per game. Purdy had at least 252 passing yards in three consecutive games before the matchup with the Browns. Thankfully, he faces a much less challenging defense in Week 7.

The Vikings have surrendered the 14th-most passing yards this year, giving up 232.8 yards per game. Furthermore, that average was significantly higher before facing Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent last week. Over the first five games, Minnesota surrendered 251.2 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, giving up 281 or more in two of their past three games before facing the Chicago Bears. After an embarrassing performance against the Browns, Purdy and the 49ers passing attack will pick apart a poor Minnesota secondary.

T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, Justin Jefferson will miss at least three more games with a hamstring injury. That means Hockenson will be Kirk Cousins’ top go-to weapon in the passing game until the superstar returns. According to Fantasy Points Data, the veteran tight end has the second-highest target per route run rate on the team behind Jefferson this year (28%-25%). Last week, he led the team in receiving yards. Furthermore, Hockenson has averaged 53.8 receiving yards per game since Week 1, totaling 50 or more yards in all but one contest.

More importantly, the former first-round pick had a 32% target per route run rate against the Bears last week, nearly twice as high as any other wide receiver or tight end on the team. Meanwhile, the 49ers have held tight ends to only 28.7 receiving yards per game this season. However, they haven’t faced a team that features their tight end in the passing game. The only game where the opposing tight ends had more than four receptions was Week 4. That week, the Arizona Cardinals got 58 receiving yards from their tight ends against San Francisco.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Saturday that Deebo Samuel is dealing with a hairline fracture in his shoulder and will miss at least the next two games. Therefore, Aiyuk will be Brock Purdy’s No. 1 target in Monday night’s matchup. The former Arizona State star hasn’t played a game without Samuel this season. Yet, he has averaged 90.8 receiving yards per game in 2023, totaling 129 or more twice. More importantly, according to Fantasy Points Data, Aiyuk has the highest target per route run rate (33%) among qualifying players on the team.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers this season. They have surrendered the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers entering Week 7, giving up 194 yards per game. Furthermore, Minnesota had allowed wide receivers to average 209.6 receiving yards per game before last week’s matchup against the Bears. With Samuel out this week and Christian McCaffrey questionable to play, expect the 49ers to feature Aiyuk against a sub-par Vikings secondary.

Danielle Hunter Over 0.25 Sacks (-105)

Last week, the 49ers suffered multiple injuries in the loss to the Browns. While Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel have gotten most of the media attention, Trent Williams might be the most significant loss from that game. The future Hall of Fame left tackle suffered an ankle injury. San Francisco’s offensive line takes a massive step back without the superstar. Unfortunately, Williams couldn’t practice at all and is listed as doubtful for Monday night’s matchup against Minnesota.

The loss of the superstar left tackle is excellent news for Hunter. He has eight sacks this season, the most in the NFL. The star pass rusher has recorded at least one sack in all but one game this year, including three over the past two weeks. Furthermore, Hunter has more contests this year with two or more sacks (two) than with less than one sack (one). Yet, all the star pass rusher needs is half a sack to hit the over on this near-even payout prop bet. The over on this prop bet will hit before halftime.

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