Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bengals vs. Jaguars

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game. Let’s get right into it.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Many had high hopes for Lawrence in his third NFL season. However, the former Clemson star has had an up-and-down year. Yet, the star quarterback has averaged 249.6 passing yards per game in 2023. Furthermore, he has totaled 262 or more in 36.4% of the contests, including three of the past four. More importantly, Lawrence has played better lately. Over his past four games, the former No. 1 overall pick has averaged 275.8 passing yards per game, including a season-high 364 against the Houston Texans in Week 12.

Thankfully, the third-year quarterback has an appealing matchup Monday night against the Bengals. Cincinnati has surrendered the eighth-most passing yards to quarterbacks entering Week 13, giving up 264.8 per game. Furthermore, their defense has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks lately. The Bengals have given up 307.8 passing yards per game to quarterbacks over their past six contests. Jacksonville’s passing attack is clicking, so expect Lawrence to have his third consecutive game with at least 260 yards.

Joe Mixon Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Despite being the featured running back in Cincinnati, Mixon has struggled this year. He has averaged 56.5 rushing yards per game in 2023. Yet, the veteran running back has had fewer than 39 rushing yards in 27.3% of the contests, including two of the past four. Furthermore, Mixon was awful last week without Joe Burrow. The former Oklahoma star had only 16 rushing yards against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that’s given up 99.1 yards per game to running backs this season.

Unfortunately, Monday night’s matchup is awful for the veteran running back. The Jaguars have held running backs to the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year, giving up 59.2 per game. However, they have been even better lately. Jacksonville has held running backs to 42 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, giving up 46 or fewer in all but one contest. Expect the Jaguars to focus on stopping Mixon, making Jake Browning beat them.

Calvin Ridley Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Ridley started the season on fire, totaling 101 receiving yards in the Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts. However, he has been up and down since the first game. Despite the inconsistent production, the star wide receiver has averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game in 2023. Furthermore, Ridley has had 83 or more receiving yards in nearly half of the contests. More importantly, the star wide receiver has played well lately, averaging 73.8 receiving yards per game over the past four weeks.

More importantly, Zay Jones has missed multiple games this year because of injuries. Thankfully, the veteran wide receiver will play Monday night against the Bengals. That’s excellent news for Ridley. The star wide receiver has averaged 89.4 receiving yards per game in the five matchups with Jones active, totaling 89 or more in all but one contest. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has surrendered the 10th-most yards to wide receivers entering Week 13, giving up 206 or more in two of their past three games.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. Yet, expect the offense to flow through Chase. The superstar wide receiver averaged 91.2 receiving yards per game in the nine contests Burrow finished this year. Meanwhile, he had 81 receiving yards on only four receptions and six targets last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Furthermore, Chase led the team in target share (23.1%) and receiving yards market share (35.7%) against the division rivals (per Fantasy Points Data).

Jacksonville has been outstanding against the run. Yet, their pass defense has struggled this season. The Jaguars have given up the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers entering Week 13, surrendering 164.1 per game. Furthermore, they have struggled to contain No. 1 wide receivers. Last week, Jacksonville gave up over 100 receiving yards to Nico Collins. Chase is a big-play receiver and could hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.

Evan Engram Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Last year, Engram was a reliable go-to target for Trevor Lawrence. However, his role hasn’t been as critical in 2023 with the addition of Calvin Ridley. Yet, the veteran tight end still has the sixth-most receiving yards among tight ends this season, averaging 47.6 per game. Furthermore, the former Ole Miss star has had at least 45 receiving yards in 63.6% of the contests this year, including last week. He has more games this season with over 56 yards (four) than under 41 (three).

Meanwhile, the Bengals have struggled to slow down tight ends this season. They have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends, surrendering 68.8 per game. Furthermore, Cincinnati has allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends over the past four weeks, giving up 82.3 per contest. Last week, Pat Freiermuth had 120 receiving yards against the division rivals. By comparison, he had only 60 receiving yards for the year entering that game. More importantly, the Bengals have surrendered over 100 receiving yards to tight ends in two of their past five contests.

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