Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Cowboys vs Chargers

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Player Prop Bets.

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/14/23

Tony Pollard Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Cowboys offense hasn’t been running on all cylinders this season. Dallas has either blown their opponent out or got blown out themselves in all five contests. However, the best way to get the offense clicking is by featuring Pollard. The star running back has struggled over the past two weeks, totaling 19 rushing attempts for 76 yards. Yet, he has averaged 68 rushing yards per game this season, totaling at least 70 yards in the first three contests.

Los Angeles had their bye in Week 5. Fans are hoping the team addressed their struggling run defense. However, don’t expect much to change on Monday night. The Chargers have surrendered 92.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have been awful since Week 1, giving up 107.3 rushing yards per game to the position, including 120 or more twice. If the Cowboys are going to win this game, they need to give Pollard at least 17 rushing attempts.

Tony Pollard Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)

While I like Pollard over his rushing total for this contest, the star running back should also play a meaningful role in the passing game. Pollard had 39 receptions last season and in 2021. However, the former Memphis star is on pace for 65 receptions this year. He is third on the team in receptions (19) and targets (22) this season. More importantly, Pollard has averaged 3.8 receptions per game in 2023, totaling at least three in four consecutive weeks.

Furthermore, the matchup is excellent for the star running back. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Cowboys have the eighth-highest checkdown rate in the league (10.9%). Meanwhile, the Chargers have the 12th-highest checkdown rate on defense (11.4%) this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles has given up 6.8 receptions per game to running backs this year, the second-most in the NFL. Expect him to have at least four receptions in this game.

Austin Ekeler Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, Ekeler hasn’t played since Week 1 because of a high-ankle sprain. Thankfully, the superstar running back will return in Week 6. While the Chargers wish he had played the past few weeks, Ekeler will have fresh legs for this prime-time matchup. The superstar was outstanding in Week 1, totaling 117 rushing yards on 16 attempts, averaging 7.3 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, he was arguably the one efficient running back on opening weekend.

According to Fantasy Points Data, the superstar ranked first in yards per rushing attempt (7.31), first in yards before contact per attempt (2.88), and third in yards after contact per attempt (4.44) among running backs with at least 11 rushing attempts in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up 77.8 rushing yards per game to running backs despite facing three awful offenses. In the other two games, they have surrendered at least 113 rushing yards to running backs in both contests. Ekeler might hit the over on this prop bet before halftime.

CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Many had high hopes for Lamb entering the season. However, the star wide receiver has been inconsistent because of playcalling and the game flow for Dallas. Yet, he has averaged 71.6 receiving yards per game this year, nearly twice as many as any other player. Furthermore, Lamb has averaged only 8.3 fewer yards per game than in 2022. More importantly, the former Oklahoma star is the focal point of the passing game, leading the team in target share (21.2%) and air yards share (27.4%).

Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up 231.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have surrendered over 240 receiving yards to wide receivers in half their games this season, including 375 yards in Week 1. More importantly, Los Angeles has faced two sub-par passing attacks – the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders with Aidan O’Connell. Yet, wide receivers averaged 155 receiving yards per game in those contests. Monday night is the get-right game for Lamb and the Cowboys offense.

Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The second-year tight end has been a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys this season. Ferguson is second on the team in receptions (20) and targets (28). Furthermore, he is third on the team in receiving yards, totaling only five yards than Michael Gallup. According to Fantasy Points Data, the former Wisconsin tight end has a higher target per route run rate (26%) than CeeDee Lamb (23%) this season. Ferguson is also second on the team in first-read target percentage. More importantly, the young tight end has averaged 35 receiving yards per game this season despite the slow start.

Ferguson had only 22 receiving yards over the first two weeks. However, he has been more involved in the offense the past three games, averaging 51 receiving yards per contest. Furthermore, the second-year tight end had at least 48 receiving yards in two of those matchups. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up 43 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Los Angeles has surrendered at least 35 receiving yards to the position in all but one contest. Ferguson could hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.

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