Najee Harris 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Oh Najee Harris, how things can change in one year. In 2021, Harris had a stellar rookie year, rushing 307 times for 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns, while also catching 74 balls on 94 targets for 467 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was as great as Pittsburgh fans hoped he would be.
Then, 2022 happened. It started off pretty bad for Harris; he never eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in the first nine weeks, and he averaged an uninspiring 3.4 yards per carry (YPC). What felt like a steady, churning engine of an RB1 in 2021 turned into a sluggish anchor of an RB2 in the first half of 2022.
Thankfully, the season didn’t end there, and he started to produce like fantasy managers had become accustomed to. He scored 7 touchdowns over the final eight games and improved his YPC to 4.0. While this second half was sweet on the palette after managers tasted nothing but bitterness, the overall result was still fairly bland in comparison to his delicious ’21 season. Heading into 2023, managers are hungry but don’t know how much food will be available or how good it will taste.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
We saw a dramatic decline in Harris’ use from ’21 to ’22. He went from being in on 84% of snaps to 66%. His receiving involvement plummeted from 74 catches on 94 targets to catching 41 of 53 targets, and his carry count dropped from 307 to 272. Now, whether this was a result of the offensive line, running inefficiencies, or an adjustment in the game plan is unknown. What is clear is that Harris took a step back considerably and his fantasy value suffered.
One reason for his decline has been attributed to the emergence of backup Jaylen Warren. Warren showed several flashes of greatness in his limited playing time last season. When you put the numbers side by side with Harris’, they quantify what we saw on the field. Warren received 28% of the carries that Harris did (77/272), but he averaged more YPC (4.9/3.8), he had more plays of 20+ yards (4/1) and he had more yards after the catch (225/207) on fewer receptions (28/41). It’s very possible that we could see a timeshare in Pittsburgh, one that has Harris get the first crack in a game, but has Warren mixing in favorably throughout.
Another factor to consider is the Steelers’ offense. Kenny Pickett is working to make the sophomore leap, trying to forget his underwhelming rookie quarterback numbers; in 13 games, he threw 389 times for 2,404 yards and 7 touchdowns.
The Steelers’ organization and fan base are desperate for Pickett to become their franchise quarterback. They’ve given him the weapons to do it. He’ll be throwing to possession receiver Diontae Johnson, electrifying George Pickens, newly acquired Allen Robinson, safety valve Pat Freiermuth, and Harris out of the backfield. This team will need each one of them to get out of the basement offensively where they ranked 23rd in yards per game (322.6), 26th in points per game (18.1), and 28th in touchdowns per game (1.7).
Harris is a good, talented, volume back who saw his volume dwindle. He’s still got juice, but his involvement is a far cry from his ’21 season, and the team wants to win now. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is masterful at winning ballgames and he’ll use whoever he has to, even if it means benching your first-round rookie pick.
I recommend reframing the way you view Harris moving forward. It’s more reasonable to think that he’s probably the 1A to Warren’s 1B in a split workload, instead of being the one and Warren the two. I project Harris’ touches to fall below 300, which should drop him closer to the RB2 range based on his level of efficiency. Harris is ranked as the RB12 according to our latest PPR rankings.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Harris enters year three of his four-year rookie deal, and if last year’s decline in involvement is any indication, it’s possible he won’t be extended beyond 2024, leaving his future murky. I still want Harris on my roster but in more of the RB2 capacity. He’s guaranteed volume in an emerging offense, barring injury, but I don’t foresee his totals matching his rookie year. His best possible scenario is he has a great, last two years of his deal, and either earns an extension or is signed on by another team. The worst case is he continues to falter in Pittsburgh and next year is his last meaningful role in the league. I fall in the middle, but hedging towards the latter.
As a contender, I might pursue Harris if I need running back stability and if the price is right. Your best bet to acquire him would be after Week 1 (vs SF) or after Week 7 (vs LAR). His schedule opens up pretty favorably after that.
In a rebuild, I’m trying to find the managers out there that are more optimistic about Harris than I am. He’s a player more of the short-term variety despite him entering only his third year in the league. He’s still a young, talented running back who will score points, but they’re not the week-winning type. He has value, but I wouldn’t build my dynasty roster around him.
Check out where Harris ranks in our up-to-date PPR fantasy football rankings.
Trending Now
Fantasy Football Consultation
2023 Fantasy Football Rankings
Best Ways to Determine Your Fantasy Football Draft Order
Fantasy Football Team Names
Connect and Engage with the Show:
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Visit us on the Web
- Follow us on Facebook
- Follow on Twitter
- Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
- Follow on Instagram
- Subscribe on Google Podcasts
- Subscribe on Spotify
Join our Communities:
