NBA Northwest Division Fantasy Basketball Outlook

The Northwest Division is home to the NBA Champions Denver Nuggets, but each team may have some fantasy league-winning talent for the next season. Utah proved to be further in their rebuild with the emergence of Lauri Markannen last season and smart 2023 Draft picks in Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh.

Out in Portland, the biggest team decision revolves around Damian Lillard and how to further the development of Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe alongside him.

In Houston, the Trail Blazers also added a top talent from the draft in Scoot Henderson. He’s an undersized point guard very much in the mold of Lillard himself. The Nuggets will likely need new contributors with the offseason departures, and that may lead to one or two late-round steals for redraft managers.

Outside of Nikola Jokic, the best contributor in 2023 from this division will likely be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards. Those two ball-handling guards who dominate the offensive facets of their team’s game plan should both be able to give fantasy managers confidence in all leagues.

Now let’s take a look at who else may be offering fantasy basketball managers good production from this division in 2023.

Denver Nuggets

Projected Starting Lineup

G Jamal Murray

G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

F Michael Porter Jr.

F Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

Bench: Peyton Watson, Reggie Jackson, Justin Holiday, Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, Hunter Tyson

Breakout Candidates: Peyton Watson, Christian Braun

The defending NBA Champions will have both new and familiar faces in their 2023-2024 rotation, with a clear focus on affordable veterans and youth. The team’s championship window is open, and the fantasy production will again be heavily connected to the core four of Jamal Murray alongside Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. in the team’s frontcourt. With the recent long-term injury to forward Vlatko Čančar, plus the offseason departures of Jeff Green and Bruce Brown, the Nuggets have depth minutes in the front court that need filling.

Second-year player Peyton Watson will likely need to step into a bigger role early in the season. If he can cover parts of Brown’s role from the past season while providing physicality, he may get some nice counting stats from the bench. Watson did not have much opportunity to play in 2022-2023. However, he has a chance to step into a 25-minute role and join a second unit along with fellow 2022 first-rounder Christian Braun.

Even with Jokic anchoring the team as a top-five fantasy asset from season to season, his unselfish play allows other players like Porter Jr. and Gordon to hyperfocus on their best traits and produce. Obviously, Jokic is the ultimate asset to roster on this team. However, it certainly has other talented players who can return top 50 and top 120 value for fantasy basketball.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Starting Lineup

G Mike Conley

G Anthony Edwards

F Jaden McDaniels

F Karl Anthony-Towns

C Rudy Gobert

Bench: Kyle Anderson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Troy Brown, Shake Milton, Naz Reid, Josh Minott

Breakout Candidates: Josh Minott, Jaden McDaniels

Anthony Edwards will lead a lot of discussions surrounding the Timberwolves and fantasy basketball for this upcoming season. Edwards has improved in multiple areas over three NBA seasons. In 2022, Edwards shot 45.9% from the field on 19.5 attempts a game. Additionally, he attempted the 20th most free throws in the league last season with 422. However, his average of 5.3 free throw attempts per game is a stat fantasy basketball managers will hope to see climb.

Edwards can be physical, so he should be able to get to the line more than he has in his career. He’s shown steady shooting growth, but more aggressiveness in getting to the rim could lead to an even better shooting percentage and more free-throw attempts. For fantasy, managers should feel secure with his second-round ADP (17.8) for 12-team leagues. However, some managers will likely want to secure him earlier in drafts.

Besides the possible leap of Edwards turning into a top-10 fantasy asset in 2023, this team has other youth and roles to be filled this upcoming season. The Timberwolves front court minutes distribution feels clear to begin the year. Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy Gobert, and newly re-signed Naz Reid seem likely to take a majority of the 96 minutes a night at the power forward and center positions.

Gobert and Anthony-Towns are 30-minute-a-night players, and Reid is likely looking at an 18-20-minute role a night behind Gobert. This leaves a 10-12 minute role at forward for Kyle Anderson and second-year player Josh Minott to battle for.

At the other forward spot, we will hope Jaden McDaniels can continue to grow into a 30+ minute role. Additionally, he’ll look to provide defensive stats for those who target him later in redraft, again with Anderson likely taking a majority of the other minutes at the three.

Starting point guard, Mike Conley should be another savvy buy for a late-round pick. Currently, the team has not re-signed Jaylen Nowell and brought in a few ball handlers outside of Shake Milton. Ultimately, Conley should be secure in a 30-minute role and can be a consistent player for 2023.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineup

G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G Josh Giddey

F Jalen Williams

F Luguentz Dort

C Chet Holmgren

Bench: Isaiah Joe, Vasilije Micic, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Kenrich Williams, Davis Bertans, Cason Wallace, Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski

Breakout Candidates: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ousmane Dieng

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke out as a top-10 fantasy option last season and should again lead this team with his playmaking plus his scoring on offense. However, he may see a decrease in overall field goal attempts with the addition of Chet Holmgren. Not to mention, the growing skillsets of Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. However, Gilgeous-Alexander should still be the highest-usage player on this team due to his ability to create shots for his teammates and get to the free throw line. Last year, he saw 10.9 attempts per game in 2022, the third-best average in the NBA.

Furthermore, Gilgeous-Alexander provides a lot on defense and offense. However, this team is brimming with young players who can also play at a high level alongside him. Jalen Williams started 62 games in his rookie season, good for the fifth most starts among 2022 rookies. Moving forward, he should slot in at the second wing spot and perhaps play minutes at the four with his 7-foot-2 wingspan at his 6-foot-5 frame.

Giddey improved his shooting in 2022 while maintaining his assist and rebounding numbers. Giddey only attempted 3.1 threes per game in 2022 but would see a 6% increase in three-point percentage from his rookie season (from 26.3% to 32.5%). Notably, he did that on nearly one less three-point attempt a game, so improving efficiency from the field is encouraging for his long-term fantasy liability. Overall, Giddey’s shot will need to continue to stabilize with the influx of rebounding and scoring added to the team in the last few years.

Chet Holmgren will be the new kid on the block for the Thunder and should see plenty of shots from outside as well. He looked healthy in Summer League, which is the most important development in his career to this point. He also has added weight post-injury, which is good for the de facto center on the Thunder. Additionally, he may offer top-50 value at least and should please fantasy managers who are looking for blockers who provide in other areas. He should fit nicely, popping out to shoot on Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey drives. Finally, he is a mobile center who can operate in transition on this quick team.

Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Starting Lineup

G Damian Lillard

G Anfernee Simons

F Matisse Thybulle

F Jerami Grant

C Jusuf Nurkic

Bench: Shaedon Sharpe, Nasir Little, Scoot Henderson, Jabari Walker, Kris Murray, Keon Johnson

Breakout Candidates: Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson

This 2023-2024 Portland Trail Blazers may open the season with this starting lineup, but are the team most likely to see vast changes to it come April 2024. One of the top NBA players in the league, Damian Lillard, should once again be a top-15 option when he does see the court again. Lillard is hoping to be traded before the season begins but may need to wait a few months into the season before getting his wishes fulfilled and moving on to the Miami Heat. If Lillard stays, his role will likely still be built around his shot-making inside, outside and at the line. Hopefully, he can create enough to progress the development of players such as Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson as well.

However, if Lillard is moved along to the Heat, the dynamics of this team and its outlook shift greatly. Players such as Sharpe or Henderson will likely be elevated to a starter role, but this team has limited depth and upside at the forward positions long term. Jerami Grant has proved he can provide top 80 value for fantasy, and if he has to lead this team at any point in 2023-2024, managers will hopefully be seeing a 20-points-per-game scorer who provides a solid field goal percentage and three-pointers (2.3 threes made per 5.7 attempts a game in 2022).

Henderson and Sharpe would hopefully grow their abilities alongside Grant and center Jusuf Nurkic. However, outside of Grant, this team may not have many top 100 players in 2023. Clearly, the team is rebuilding. So outside of daily fantasy sports (DFS), it’s hard to project many of these other players’ outcomes until Lillard is staying or moving.

Utah Jazz

Projected Starting Lineup

G Jordan Clarkson

G Colin Sexton

F Lauri Markannen

F John Collins

C Walker Kessler

Bench: Keyonte George, Ochai Agbaji, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kris Dunn, Kelly Olynyk, Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh

Breakout Candidates: Colin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Keyonte George

The Utah Jazz are one of those teams in 2023 that may start the season without a natural starting point guard. Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson are solid guards who should start the year, but the 2023-2024 Jazz will revolve around Lauri Markannen and Walker Kessler for us fantasy managers. Kessler provides good field goal percentage, rebounding, and, of course, blocks (2.3 per game in 2022).

Kessler would average 9.2 points and 8.9 rebounds in a 23-minute role but also was second on the team with 20 double-doubles in his rookie year. Eventually he grew into an anchor role for the Jazz and should only expect that to grow in 2023, hopefully becoming a top 60 asset for us in fantasy.

This team is difficult to project for their future outlook besides those two players. With the current projected lineup as well as the acquisition of John Collins, this team seems to be trying to compete sooner rather than later. All in all, Markannen has become this team’s star player and ascended into a fantasy asset. He provides efficient shooting, as well as rebounding numbers on a 25.9% usage rate for the Jazz.

Talen Horton-Tucker, Colin Sexton, Keyonte George, or really any guard could find themselves breaking out from this team. Right now, besides Kris Dunn, the team doesn’t have a true distributing point guard. Sexton and George offer scoring upside, but Horton-Tucker provides good passing and other counting numbers while not being a huge scoring threat. The team has other youthful talents, but a lot of production for fantasy should be provided by Markannen, Clarkson, and Kessler in 2023.

Conclusion

This division has teams at different points in rebuilds, teams that are young contenders, while also housing the current NBA Champions as well. The division has high-end dynasty assets in Edwards, Gilgeous-Alexander, and of course, Jokic. What may be more exciting from this division is seeing the youth stepping into secure fantasy roles for 2023.

The Thunders’ Josh Giddey is developing consistency as a top 60 asset, especially in points leagues. Besides the bigger names, this division also currently has a league-defining question mark in Damian Lillard. Currently, that team is in the midst of a rebuild. However, trading him would accelerate an ascension for Henderson and Sharpe to hopefully become assets to reach top 50 in value for fantasy players.

Heading into the next NBA season, this division is one to watch with the talent to lead fantasy teams this season and next.

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