NBA Southeast Division Fantasy Basketball Outlook

The NBA’s Southeast Division has big-name scorers for fantasy in Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, and the Hornets’ LaMelo Ball. These three players are all being drafted at the top 25 ADP so far for the 2023-2024 season. Behind them, talents such as Bam Adebayo, Dejounte Murray, and even Paolo Banchero are also expected to return top 50 value based on current ADP. This division has established talent and, most importantly, not many fantasy assets ready to fall off an age cliff. Names like Clint Capela or Gordon Hayward may be heading towards those cliffs, but they should still provide and see minutes across the next couple of seasons.

This division has a lot of playmaking from guards and forwards, plus exciting youthful talent concentrated in Orlando, Washington, and Charlotte. Of those three teams, the Magic may be the most appealing for fantasy with their offensive specialists Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. However, the Wizards are entering a new era, which may open up new fantasy production and ascension for shooters like Jordan Poole and Deni Avdija. It’s important to understand how managers can find value in teams with names like Young, Ball, and Butler taking over games offensively.

Let’s discuss the Southeast Division and figure out who can take the steps this season to make a difference in fantasy.

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Starting Lineup

G Trae Young

G Dejounte Murray

F De’Andre Hunter

F Saddiq Bey

C Clint Capela

Bench: Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okongwu, Garrison Mathews, Patty Mills, Wesley Matthews, Kobe Bufkin

Breakout Candidates: AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu

The Atlanta Hawks will go as Trae Young goes, and hopefully, that involves an eventual stabilization of his field goal percentage. Young shot the worst three-point percentage since his rookie season last season (33.5%), making 2.1 per game. Additionally, he would supply his teammates by collecting a career-high 10.2 assists per game in 2022-2023.

Young is a passing and scoring contributor that managers can happily take with an early second-round pick. His field goal percentage should hopefully return to his 2021-2022 form when he shot 46% on 20.3 field goal attempts per game. Undoubtedly, if his efficiency increases and his assists stay as high as last year, we’re looking at a top fantasy asset.

Outside of Young, expect Dejounte Murray to deliver top 60 value for fantasy with his shooting and scoring while also providing some counting stats in rebounds and steals. His numbers may never replicate the 2021-2022 season on the Spurs. However, he should be able to step up in case of injury to Bogdanovic or others in the frontcourt. Murray can do it all and still is a valuable player, just maybe not a top three-round pick (36.2 average ADP).

This team may find itself changing rotations this season if they can’t find a secure playoff spot. Names like Capela or De’Andre Hunter moving would open the door for the youth of AJ Griffin and Onyeka Okongwu to step up. In the end, it may be necessary sooner rather than later, so keep those names in mind late in drafts or on waiver wires.

Charlotte Hornets

Projected Starting Lineup

G Terry Rozier

G LaMelo Ball

F Gordon Hayward

F Miles Bridges

C Mark Williams

Bench: Kai Jones, Caleb Martin, Brandon Miller, Nick Richards, Bryce McGowens, Amari Bailey, Nick Smith

Breakout Candidates: Mark Williams, Brandon Miller

LaMelo Ball is being drafted as a top-20 asset for redraft purposes. Managers should expect three-point shooting, volume, and counting stats in the assist and rebounding departments. Overall, Ball is an all-around asset who will help managers by making threes. Additionally, he can take attention from defenders to get buckets for Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, and Gordon Hayward.

This season, the Hornets will hope to see growth from Ball for efficiency. All while facilitating the development of Miller and 2022 first-rounder Mark Williams.

Some key developments to watch in this team for 2023-2024 will be how long Miller is not in the starting lineup. It’ll also be interesting to see how he fits alongside Bridges and Williams, as they all would hopefully provide rebounds. The most likely situation is for Hayward to begin the year starting due to his shooting and fit, but eventually, Miller will be starting for this team. The Hornets didn’t draft Scoot Henderson or make a substantial backcourt add, clearly hoping for a bounceback from Terry Rozier.

Overall, this team has a lot of question marks for fantasy. However, center Mark Williams may be able to rise in the lineup and secure himself as a future asset. Hopefully, his blocking, rebounding, and efficiency can continue with a larger role so he can become a top-20 center this season. Outside of Ball and perhaps one of Rozier or Bridges, it’s hard to see top 70 fantasy talent on this team for 2023.

Miami Heat

Projected Starting Lineup

G Kyle Lowry

G Tyler Herro

F Jimmy Butler

F Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

Bench: Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Orlando Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jamal Cain

Breakout Candidates: Orlando Robinson, Jamal Cain

The Miami Heat are coming off an impressive playoff run and will likely provide again for fantasy in the forms of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. That’s the scenario if not starting the year with Damian Lillard at point guard, which seems unlikely at this point. Additionally, the team signed Thomas Bryant and Josh Richardson again but is clearly not in a position to make wholesale changes outside of the Lillard move. Butler and Adebayo are the best assets on this team, while hopefully, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry can return top 120 value. Lowry’s shooting percentage and assists regressed last season, which is not surprising due to advanced age and further progression of Herro.

Young players Jamal Cain and Orlando Robinson showed usable skills in Summer league. Ultimately, it would not be surprising for Robinson to beat out Bryant for a depth role during the season. This team has some depth, but with the departures of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, it will unquestionably hash out differently for minutes. They’re likely hoping for Haywood Highsmith and Richardson to step into that Strus role, but that may not be too important for fantasy. Expect Duncan Robinson to get shots from the bench.

Also, expect this team to be healthy and looking to produce from the start. They’ll be led by Butler, but talents Herro and Adebayo are showing they can be fantasy contributors.

Orlando Magic

Projected Starting Lineup

G Markelle Fultz

G Joe Ingles

F Franz Wagner

F Paolo Banchero

C Wendell Carter

Bench: Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Chuma Okeke, Jonathan Isaac, Jett Howard, Anthony Black, Moritz Wagner

Breakout Candidates: Cole Anthony, Anthony Black

The Magic feel on the verge of a big trade to clarify minutes or becoming  Oklahoma City South by acquiring more young talent every offseason. Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero showed his skills and overall game last season, which has resulted in redraft managers taking him with fifth-round capital this year. Banchero and Franz Wagner led this team in usage last season, with 27.2% and 23%, respectively, on offense.

Wagner is an efficient scorer (48.6% in 2022-2023) while providing some three-point shooting and counting stats. He’s just a solidly efficient player who can do multiple things, making him valuable in category leagues. Banchero is the player to roster for points leagues as his offensive game grows. He’s the best player on this team, and the usage will reflect that.

Cole Anthony may actually start the season over Joe Ingles, but that is a lot of shots among himself, Banchero, Wagner, and Markelle Fultz. That also may limit the team defensively, which may be why 2023 sixth overall pick Anthony Black could start at the second guard spot. Anthony shot a respectable 45.4% on 10.2 attempts per game in 2022-2023 from the bench and may have more confidence from the team than two guard Jalen Suggs.

This team has a lot of youth like Suggs, Caleb Houstan, and Jett Howard, who may find difficulty in getting minutes this season. That is why a trade may open up more clarity at that second guard spot, which would alter most players’ fantasy value. This team may be competing for a play-in spot come March, so invest in this team with some hope and confidence.

Washington Wizards

Projected Starting Lineup

G Tyus Jones

G Jordan Poole

F Deni Avdija

F Kyle Kuzma

C Daniel Gafford

Bench: Patrick Baldwin Jr., Landry Shamet, Delon Wright, Corey Kispert, Johnny Davis, Bilal Coulibaly, Mike Muscala

Breakout Candidates: Deni Avdija, Patrick Baldwin, Johnny Davis

The Washington Wizards are diving into a deep rebuild by moving on from Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis but also re-signed Kyle Kuzma this offseason. They acquired Chris Paul and moved him along for Jordan Poole, someone who will see a majority of shots in this offense. Kuzma and Poole should lead this team in scoring and shot attempts, but it’ll be a question of efficiency and how much else they provide. Kuzma may be a more secure option with his rebounding production and established offensive role, but Poole may end up chomping into some of that scoring production.

Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford will each get an opportunity to produce for fantasy this upcoming season. We’ll see how much rebounding and offense Gafford can provide alongside Kuzma, Avdija, and Patrick Baldwin in the frontcourt. Gafford and Avdija are both being taken in the 100s for redraft purposes, but this team has production holes that someone will need to fill.

Outside of those players, we can hope Tyus Jones is a solid top 120 option and maybe higher with usage at starting point guard. This team has multiple capable shooters; it’s just about finding the right fitting ones for any given lineup. Players like Jones or Delon Wright may be trade pieces for this team. However, they likely won’t fetch too much to change the team’s fantasy outlook.

For the Wizards, there will be heavy expectations on Kuzma and Poole, with potential growth coming from other areas as well.

Conclusion

The 2023-2024 season should once again provide players who make a name for themselves, and this Southeast Division should reflect that. LaMelo Ball is ready to take the next step and become not only an exciting asset to roster but a dependable one. Trae Young has shown he can get teammates involved, and hopefully, he can raise the fantasy ceilings of players like Jalen Johnson and Okongwu.

This division has a bunch of offensive igniters, with Washington having a potential flamethrower themselves in Poole. This division is young and exciting, as shown by the exorbitant amount of youth and upside. Whether it comes to fruition with fantasy production is yet to be seen, but with each team chasing the Miami Heat, expect fireworks and changing dynamics from this division throughout the year.

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