NFL Week 6 — Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets (2023)

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 6 of the NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

If I had a vote for the Most Valuable Player award today, it would go towards Brock Purdy. Now I know what you will sit here and tell me, “He is a system player.” or “Anyone could succeed with the weapons around him.” While Kyle Shanahan has an uncanny ability to get the most out of all kinds of quarterbacks, the 43-year-old has also had many failures at the position, including Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, and most notably Trey Lance.

So, for a San Francisco team that continued its red-hot start to the 2023 season with a dominant 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, the group is now 13-0 in games in which Purdy plays at least three quarters, going from an already dominant team to a freight train.

And if you look at the numbers, they are truly staggering. Through six weeks, Purdy has completed 72.1 percent of his passes for 1,271 yards while tossing nine touchdowns and no interceptions. He leads the NFL in passer rating (123.1) and touchdown to interception ratio (9.0) while ranking second in yards per attempt (9.3). So, while he lacks the eye-popping physical talents of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the former final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft is making a case for the award that is becoming difficult to overlook. Fresh off a 5-1 record on Sunday, here are the picks.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

Indianapolis snapped its seven-game home losing streak on Sunday by defeating the Tennessee Titans 23-16. Zach Moss led the way on the ground by amassing 165 yards rushing on 23 carries. They were able to overcome the loss of Anthony Richardson. The rookie quarterback left the game late in the first half after falling on his shoulder.

Jacksonville jumped out to a slow start to begin their 2023 campaign. The Jaguars entered their back-to-back London games with a record of 1-2. However, the team leaves on a two-game winning streak following an upset of the surging Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Wearing down Sean McDermott’s group late, Travis Etienne found the end zone twice in the fourth quarter, including a 35-yard touchdown scamper late to put the game out of reach. With first place in the AFC South on the line in this one, four points is too big a number.

Pick: Colts (+4)

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Chicago Bears (+3)

Suddenly fighting for their postseason lives, Minnesota is currently sitting at 1-4 following their 27-20 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Once again hampered by giveaways, the Vikings turned the ball over on their first possession on a Josh Oliver fumble. This was the team’s league-leading 12th turnover. Making matters worse, they also lost star wide receiver Justin Jefferson to a hamstring injury. The one-time First-team All-Pro member will be sidelined for at least the next four games.

Back in the win column for the first time in over a year, the Bears embarrassed the Washington Commanders 40-20. Jumping out to a 24-point halftime lead, the duo of Justin Fields and DJ Moore finally appeared to be getting in sync. They connected eight times for 203 yards and three touchdowns. While Kirk Cousins can still put up points in the absence of his top playmaker, Chicago’s offense appears to be hitting its groove. Look for Fields to make enough plays with both his arm and his legs to give his team its second straight victory.

Pick: Bears (+3)

Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Winners of three straight games following their 30-13 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in week 1, Seattle is coming off a bye. Last facing off against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, the Seahawk’s defense harassed Daniel Jones and company all night long. They sacked the 26-year-old 11 times, tying a franchise record.

Cincinnati is finally beginning to find its groove, with Joe Burrow fully healthy for the first time all season. Relying on Jamar Chase to get their offense going against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, the former fifth-overall pick was targeted 19 times. He set a single-game franchise record with 15 receptions for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Currently sitting just one game back of the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, Zac Taylor’s group needs this win before games against the 49ers and the Buffalo Bills on the horizon after their bye.

Pick: Bengals (-3)

New England Patriots (+3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3)

New England’s season is sitting on the brink of a total collapse. The Patriots are 1-4 for the first time since 2000. Blown out for the second straight week on Sunday, they fell 34-0 to the New Orleans Saints. This was the second-worst shutout loss in the franchise’s history. Continuing to have problems at quarterback, Mac Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe once again after he completed just 12 of his 22 passes while tossing multiple interceptions, including a pick-six by safety Tyrann Mathieu.

Las Vegas outlasted the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football in a narrow 17-13 victory. Entering the game with just one takeaway through four games, the Raiders intercepted Jordan Love three times, including a game-sealer by Amik Robertson in the end zone. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo did just enough in his first game back from a concussion. The ten-year veteran shook off an early interception. He tossed for 208 yards and a touchdown.

Nonetheless, the Raiders are still a bottom-five offense in the league. Even an injury-riddled New England defense should have no problems slowing them down. Pair that with Josh McDaniels coaching on a short week and take the points and roll with the road team in this one.

Pick: Patriots (+3)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (O/U 48.5)

Despite their 1-4 record, the Cardinals have primarily exceeded expectations to begin their 2023 campaign. Highlighted by a shocking 28-16 upset of the Dallas Cowboys in week 3, Arizona has been in every game, with three of their four losses coming by one score. Furthermore, veteran quarterback Joshua Dobbs has played efficient football in relief of Kyler Murray. The University of Tennesee product has completed 65 percent of his passes while tossing six touchdowns to two interceptions.

Aiming to get back to .500 after falling to the Philadelphia Eagles a week ago, the Rams lost 23-14. Unable to score late against a stout defense, Los Angeles wasted a strong return from Cooper Kupp. He hauled in eight catches for 118 yards, including five receptions on the team’s opening drive. Nonetheless, with no James Connor as a stabilizing presence in the backfield for the Cardinals, lean on the under in this NFC West showdown.

Pick: Under 48.5

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 42.5)

The leader of the NFC North, Detroit, is riding a three-game winning streak. Running away from the lowly Carolina Panthers in a 42-24 beatdown on Sunday, the Lions were able to overcome the losses of both wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs after both players were ruled out due to injuries. Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes, including two to tight end Sam LaPorta, while also running for another score.

Prior to their week 5 bye, Tampa Bay bounced back from their lone loss of the year. The Buccaneers knocked off the New Orleans Saints 26-9. Baker Mayfield continued his strong start to the year by throwing three touchdown passes to three different receivers. Meanwhile, Todd Bowles’s group was able to keep a struggling Saints offense in check. They held Derek Carr to just 127 yards through the air on 23 attempts while sacking him twice. Play the over in a battle between two teams at the top of their respective divisions.

Pick: Over 42.5

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