Nick Chubb 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Football Outlook
Nick Chubb is undeniably the best pure running back in the NFL right now. He never gets love as the best running back in fantasy football because he does not catch the ball enough. However, Nick Chubb will be the RB1 this season. Join me as I break down the 2023 fantasy football outlook for the star running back. Additionally, I’ll let you know just how he can finish the season as THE RB1 overall.
You can check almost any running back stat last year and Chubb was Top-5. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Chubb has the second highest yards per carry all-time, at 5.2 yards (Jamaal Charles #1 at 5.4). He is ninth all-time in rush yards per game with 84.5 yards, and this era of football does not run the ball as much compared to prior eras.
Today, I will tell you why Chubb will be the RB1 this season even though he is being drafted as the RB6.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
Before we get excited about 2023, let’s review Chubb’s 2022 season! He is an explosive, big-play running back. According to PFF, Chubb had the highest percentage of 10+ yards runs with a 15.6% rate (RB2 was Jacobs – 12.1%). Then he also led the league in 15+ yards runs with 23, while Barkley had 21. Per PFF, to compare it “apples to apples” Chubb had a rate of 7.6% and Barkley had a rate of 6.7%.
Chubb is a volume running back and is efficient with his touches. I already highlighted how good his career yards per carry is all-time. Per The Edge, Chubb was fourth in rushing attempts per game (18), third in rushing yards per game (90), fifth in rushing touchdowns (12), and third in yards after contact per attempt (3.4).
Furthermore, Chubb was consistent for fantasy football last year too. According to our free fantasy football tool, the Consistency Score, Chubb was RB6 (6.59). He finished as a Top-12 running back 41% of the time, and a Top-24 running back 71% of the time. Therefore, he was reliable for your fantasy team and worth the draft capital. He had the ninth-best consistency score even when you compare him to other skill positions.
As we look forward to 2023, everyone is always concerned that Nick Chubb does not catch enough to be the best running back for fantasy football. Kareem Hunt is no longer on the Cleveland Browns. The current running backs will not threaten Chubb’s workload. Last season, Chubb had 37 targets (2.18/g) and 27 receptions (1.59/g), which was a 73% catch rate (75.3% career catch rate. Let’s be conservative and say Chubb averaged 3 targets per game this season (51 targets), then he would increase his receptions by 10 to 37, based on his career catch rate. Targets are earned, but Chubb is capable of earning targets. Kareem Hunt had 44 targets last season (2.6/g). Now let’s say Chubb averages 4 targets per game then you should expect about 51 receptions for the year! This is how Nick Chubb becomes the fantasy football RB1 this season.
Fantrax ADP has Nick Chubb 15th overall as the RB6. You need to take the value and target Chubb at the end of the first round. We expect the Clevland Browns offense to improve this season and Chubb will have a lot of scoring opportunities.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Right now, Chubb is the RB7 according to our dynasty startup ADP. According to DLF, Chubb is the RB10 and 35th overall for the current dynasty ADP. Most people’s concern with Chubb in dynasty fantasy football is his age. He is 27.5 years old, so it is reasonable to expect his performance to decline within the next couple of seasons.
If your team is rebuilding then Chubb is a perfect asset to wait until later in the season and trade him to a contending team for maximum value. He will be desirable for any team that thinks they are one player away from a fantasy championship. However, if your team is contending then hold onto Chubb and hope to ride him to a championship.
If Chubb is not on your roster then I am sending out feelers if I have a contending team. Chubb is worth a first-round rookie pick, but I do not want to give up that pick until later in the season to make sure I am still a contending team.
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