Is there any better feeling in fantasy football than correctly calling a breakout player? The feeling of pride that comes with knowing you were correct on such a call is an incredibly gratifying feeling. A close second: knowing everyone else in the league is aware that you made that call and that player is on your roster all season.
While there is a ton of work ahead regarding start/sits and waivers, winning your fantasy football league starts right here. Nail one or two breakout picks and you are one step closer to counting the cash. Here’s my all-breakout team for 2023 that could bring your league mates to their knees and leave them wondering how you managed to crush their souls with such a stunning roster.
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa
2022 was easily Tagovailoa’s best season on record. New coach Mike McDaniel implemented a system that highlighted his strengths, and it worked wonders for the third-year starter. All in all, Tagovailoa threw for career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns. Could it really get better in 2023? The answer is a resounding yes.
Tagovailoa has one of the better receiver duos in the league playing with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both bring an element of speed that gives defenses nightmares and can pop for a big play at any moment. While this might surprise people, Tagovailoa’s ability to throw an accurate deep ball meshes very well with Waddle and Hill.
This ability means Tagovailoa is always a threat for blowup games and that leads to week-winning performances. A 5,000-yard, 30-touchdown season is in the upper range of outcomes for him. If everything clicks, including Tagovailoa’s health, then this outcome is certainly on the table. Breaking down his 2022, these results are not as crazy as they might initially sound.
Tagovailoa averaged nearly 273 passing yards a game last year. Projecting this over a full 17-game pace, he would have thrown for over 4,600 yards. His totals last year also included games he left early and his play was hampered by undiagnosed concussions. Tagovailoa would only need to average 22 more yards per game to hit 5,000. Considering the leaps we have seen quarterbacks make in year two of a system, this outcome is within the realm of possibilities.
Reaching 30 touchdowns isn’t that far-fetched either. He threw 25 in 13 games last year. Tagovailoa can easily hit this mark if he can stay healthy for a full season. That, though, is the real gamble here. He flashed major upside last year, but concussions robbed us of seeing the full breakout.
The nice part about this injury discount? We are getting a sweet price on Tagovailoa this season. He has been doing his part in trying to correct his concussion issues. Additionally, he has reportedly been taking Jujitsu in order to combat the problem. Channeling his inner George St – Pierre (shoutout to any OG UFC Fans) certainly seems promising.
The health concerns for Tagovailoa are real as he has yet to play a full season uninterrupted by injuries. In regards to concussion concerns: there is precedent for overcoming concussion issues. Remember a few years ago when people thought Brandin Cooks’ career was in jeopardy following multiple concussions? Cooks has not sustained a concussion since and has put up two 1,000-yard seasons since his last concussion in 2019. No two players are the same, but there’s no tangible reason to think concussions will impact Tagovailoa’s play or his ability to stay on the field.
Tua can easily join the upper echelon of fantasy football quarterbacks with a healthy 2023. If you still believe in waiting at quarterback, Tagovailoa is your guy for 2023.
Running Back: Tony Pollard
Entering his fifth year in the league, Pollard has long showcased his big-play-making ability. 2022 saw Pollard finally able to wrangle more touches away from Ezekiel Elliot, and the results were delightful. Pollard eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground for the first time in his career and scored 12 total touchdowns en route to an RB8 finish. Elliot has finally been removed from the picture, and there is not much standing in the way of an even better 2023 performance.
Pollard has not gotten the chance to tote the load often during his time in Dallas, but when he has the results have been fantastic.
Pollard finished 4th in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grade among all running backs. Among running backs with 174 carries, Pollard finished 7th in PFF’s signature Elusiveness Rating for running backs. These are good signs a full breakout is coming.
Let’s have a little fun and project what Pollard could produce in terms of rushing. If we give Pollard a total of 272 rushing attempts (17 per game) and project it over his career yards per carry of 5.1, Pollard would finish with 1,387 rushing yards. This wouldn’t even include any work in the receiving game where Pollard has also been very involved. Pollard is an immensely talented player and has produced whenever given the opportunity to shine. Set up to be the bell-cow back for the first time in his career, Pollard could be an incredible steal at his current Fantrax ADP of 24th overall.
My colleague Cody Cook put it best in his 2023 Fantasy Outlook article on Tony Pollard. “Pollard has all the tools under his belt to be a top-end running back this season.” I could not agree more.
Finally free from the shadow of an aging Ezekiel Elliot, Pollard is primed for another RB1 season where he can now make a charge for a top-five finish at the position.
Running Back: J.K. Dobbins
The situation currently in front of J.K. Dobbins is too good to ignore. The offense has new life thanks to new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The Ravens added help in the passing game by signing Odell Beckham Jr and drafting talented receiver Zay Flowers in the first round.
These moves will keep defenses guessing in terms of the passing game and will give Dobbins plenty of run-friendly boxes to take advantage of. This would be terrific for Dobbins’ fantasy prospects given how good he’s been when on the field
Dobbins has been one of the more elite backs in terms of efficiency since he entered the league in 2020, averaging 5.9 yards per carry in his nascent career. With those numbers, we are approaching Jamaal Charles territory. Anytime a back averages nearly six yards per carry, it merits attention.
Dobbins’ knee situation that has landed him on the PUP list (cough cough contract situation) might be frightening, but this is a player who needs to prove his worth for a new contract. There is plenty of motivation for Dobbins to go out and have his best season to date.
As for potential touch competition:
Running back Gus Edwards took a pay cut back in March just to remain on the team. That does not seem to bode well for him to potentially take work away from Dobbins.
The Ravens did recently sign Melvin Gordon to a contract. This should be a nonfactor as Gordon was released from the Broncos in the middle of last season and then shuffled to the Chiefs as a practice squad player. He was never elevated to the active roster. This signing looks more like a depth move than someone challenging for a significant role.
One thing Dobbins has not done in his career thus far is catch passes. While a fair concern, we have seen many backs succeed and deliver top-12 fantasy seasons despite their lack of catches. Derrick Henry, Marshawn Lynch, and Nick Chubb to name a few. While Dobbins most likely won’t approach the workload of Henry and Lynch, Chubb is a great comparison point for Dobbins.
Chubb has excelled on efficiency for years and finished as a top-12 back despite his lack of receptions. Dobbins has already proven he can produce on limited touches. If we can project Dobbins with even a modest 270 carries at his current career yards per carry- that would project to a 1,593 rushing-yard season. Being realistic, he’s not likely to average almost 6.0 yards per carry over that large a sample size, but if we ding it down to even 5.0 yards per carry- Dobbins would still rush for over 1,300 yards. If he is given the full goal-line work? Yeah, there is potential here for a huge breakout season. According to our 2023 Strength of Schedule outlook, the Ravens project to face the sixth easiest schedule of run defenses this year. Overall, this also bodes well for Dobbins’ fantasy football outlook.
Dobbins is in the dreaded running back dead zone this year and that by nature makes him a riskier pick in addition to other concerns. When we analyze the types of backs that typically produce out of the dead zone, they are usually young, talented backs. All in all, Dobbins fits this profile perfectly.
As I’m certain you’ve gathered by now, Dobbins is a player I am extremely bullish on for 2023. I love getting Dobbins as my RB2 in drafts, and in certain scenarios, I have been fine taking Dobbins as my RB1. There are many signs that point to Dobbins having a breakout season and beating his current Fantrax ADP of RB19.
Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson
If you read my 2023 Fantasy Outlook for Garrett Wilson, you shouldn’t be too surprised to see his name on this team.
Wilson is a true stud. He overcame horrendous quarterback play to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Additionally, he is a great candidate for the year two receiver breakout. His new quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, has a long history of hyper-targeting his number one receiver. This is easy to do when your number one receiver is Davante Adams. Might sound like a stretch to speculate that a year two receiver could reach Adams’ target totals, but even Rodgers himself admitted he sees some similarities between Wilson and Adams.
Let’s reexamine some of Adam’s target totals playing with Rodgers.
- 2021-169
- 2020- 149
- 2019- 127 (12 games)
- 2018- 169
Garrett Wilson already showed he can command targets at an Adams-like pace finishing with 147 in 2022. When receiving passes from Aaron Rodgers in 2021, Adams had a 79.9% Catchable Target Rate according to FantasyPoints Data. In 2022, Wilson had a Catchable Target Rate of 75.2%. This was almost five points lower than Adams. A more accurate passer means Wilson could approach Adams’ level of fantasy production. A 100 reception, 1300+ yards, and 10+ touchdown season is within the range of outcomes this year for Wilson.
The Jets do, though, have added target competition in 2023 compared to 2022. They signed receivers Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard in free agency. They pose a threat, but if we’re being honest, Hardman played with Patrick Mahomes and could not draw targets consistently playing alongside Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. At the same time, Lazard played with Rodgers and couldn’t draw enough targets away from Adams to be fantasy relevant. Do we really think these players will poach targets from one of the best young receivers in the game? Put me down as a solid no.
Wilson is a special player whose situation has dramatically improved from last year. Personally, I will be aggressively targeting him in round two of all my fantasy drafts. This is the type of player I love betting on. The talent is there, and he is now tied to a Hall of Fame quarterback who has supported elite wide receivers before. He has top-five potential at the position. Overall, I’m drafting him banking on that outcome.
Wide Receiver: Christian Watson
While Watson’s rookie season got off to a slow start, the 2022 34th overall pick showcased why the Packers made the move to trade up for him in the 2022 NFL Draft. From weeks 10-17, Watson finished as the PPR WR9 according to FantasyPros. Watson showcased big-play ability. This is the type of production that can win you a matchup any given week.
While he is still a developmental player in terms of his route running, what’s not in question is his game-changing speed.
Watson’s stretch last season did occur with Rodgers at the helm of the Packers’ offense. Jordan Love is taking over at quarterback and this raises some concerns for Watson as we don’t know quite what to expect from Love. Love did flash potential in relief against the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles and very much looked the part. It’s possible he can support Watson in terms of fantasy production. Luckily for Love and Watson, the Packers have the easiest fantasy football strength of schedule according to our 2023 Strength of Schedule Outlook. This should help ease Jordan Love into the role and give Watson some cushy matchups they can both exploit.
More good news for Watson- there is not significant competition for targets in this offense. This is a very young team on the offensive side of the ball. The Packers’ main additions were rookie receiver Jayden Reed and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. These are talented players in their own rights, but it might be a stretch to expect significant contributions right away. The runway is clear for Watson to once again emerge as the number one option and build on the momentum from 2022.
Few players have the ability to make a house call every time they touch the football. Watson is one of these players. Should he improve upon his consistency and route running, Watson has the raw talent to become a top-12 contributor at the position. I’ll be looking to target Watson as a WR3 or flex play as he carries league-winning upside with his athletic ability.
Wide Receiver: Chris Olave
Are you noticing a theme here? Bet on year two wide receivers. They have been a fantasy gold mine over the last few seasons. Olave is no exception.
Olave is an absolute stud at the position. He made the people fading him last season look foolish. Had it not been for Wilson, this man would easily have been the top year two receiver off draft boards.
For as good as Wilson was in 2022, you can make the argument that Olave was actually better. Olave had a higher Team Target Share and Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) than Wilson according to Fantasy Points Data. He also had a higher Average Depth of Target (ADOT). The underlying data is strong and shows Olave has more to offer in terms of fantasy football production.
Like Wilson, Olave is getting a new quarterback and while Derek Carr is not exactly Rodgers, Carr has proven he can support receivers in the past. Just last year Adams finished as the WR3 with Carr. Previously Hunter Renfrow finished as the WR11, Darren Waller had TE2 and TE3 finishes, Amari Cooper was WR13, and Michael Crabtree finished as WR12 in 2016. Minus Adams, Olave is arguably more talented than every receiver on this list. He can destroy last year’s WR25 finish with Carr.
Olave is a fine target in rounds two or three of drafts. He is an elite route-runner and has only begun to scratch the surface. Furthermore, the underlying data strongly supports a breakout campaign is on the horizon. This is a great player to place a wager on for a year two leap. I’ll make sure I’ll have shares.
Tight End: Kyle Pitts
I already outlined in Kyle Pitts’ 2023 Fantasy Outlook that his main problem in 2022 was that Marcus Mariota played quarterback about as well as Brucie from The Longest Yard. I could belabor the point by once again showing all the missed throws Mariota had targeting Pitts, but I think we got the gist of it.
Ah what the heck, why not?
Can’t help but wonder what Pitts’ final numbers might have looked like if Mariota connected on even just half of these attempts.
Desmond Ridder is primed to take over for Mariota in 2023. While he was only marginally better, he did show improvement across his four starts last year. There is hope he can bring the best out of Pitts this year. If we’re being totally honest- it’s going to be near impossible for Ridder to be as bad as Mariota was in 2022. That’s good news for Pitts’ fantasy outlook.
Pitts had some of the most elite per-route data out there in 2022. According to Fantasy Points, he had a TPRR of an eye-popping 30%. This was better than Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.
Pitts is still an elite talent at the tight end position. This is still the same player who was the first rookie tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards since Mike Ditka in 1961.
From a schematic standpoint, Pitts is set up to thrive. Bijan Robinson is in town and will force defenses to account for the ground game even more than last year. That will leave Pitts with plenty of one on one opportunities. That’s where Pitts can thrive in this offense. He has the route running to get open and has that 4.44 40-yard dash speed to blow the top off defenses. That’s a combination that doesn’t come around too often for tight ends.
Ridder is going to have so many layup throws in this offense thanks to what the Falcons have built around him. Ridder just has to complete these throws to Pitts and let him do the rest with his athleticism. Sprinkle in positive touchdown regression that Pitts is more than due to experience, and there is serious potential here for a difference-making finish at fantasy’s most thin position.
Once you get outside of Kelce and Andrews, things get ugly at tight end. Pitts has the most upside of anyone left afterward, and if you’re like me and want to take a homerun swing, Pitts is your man. When looking for a breakout pick, it’s always wise to bet on talent.
Are most of these breakout picks projections? Well, yeah, of course they are! That’s the point!
For years I have argued with my league mates regarding breakout players. They prefer the sure thing over potential stars. My stance has always been this: If you are always waiting to see it from a player before drafting them, you’re playing fantasy football the wrong way. One of the best ways to get a discount on a fantasy superstar is to identify one before they’re a superstar.
Personally, I play in over 50 fantasy football leagues. My best seasons have come when I have correctly predicted breakout calls. The biggest edge you can get over your league mates is to nail one or two breakout picks. Snag a couple of the names above in your drafts and you could be well on your way to a championship season.
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