Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Saints vs. Rams

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 15 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)

Stafford started the year struggling to put the ball in the end zone. Over the first 11 weeks, the veteran quarterback averaged only one passing touchdown per game, totaling more than one only once. However, he has been on fire lately. Stafford has 12 passing touchdowns over the past four weeks, the most in the NFL. The former No. 1 overall pick has had at least two passing touchdowns in four consecutive contests.

Meanwhile, the Saints have surrendered the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, giving up only 1.1 per game. However, New Orleans has surrendered four passing touchdowns in the eight matchups against Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Joshua Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, and Tommy DeVito, giving up zero scores in half of those contests. By comparison, Baker Mayfield, C.J. Stroud, Gardner Minshew, Justin Fields, and Jared Goff all had at least two passing touchdowns against the Saints. Stafford will keep his touchdown streak alive.

Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+145)

Despite playing through multiple injuries, including two concussions over the past seven weeks, Carr has had a solid first year in New Orleans. The veteran quarterback hasn’t finished three games this season because of injuries. However, he has averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns per game in the other 11 contests, totaling two or more in nearly half of those matchups despite playing multiple games at far less than 100% healthy. More importantly, Carr has thrown at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games.

While Aaron Donald is still the top defensive lineman in the NFL, he can’t make the Rams’ pass defense elite by himself. Los Angeles has surrendered 19 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the 10th-most in the league. They have given up 2.1 passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks since Week 8. More importantly, the Rams have surrendered the most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks over the past month, allowing 2.3 per game, including three scores in back-to-back weeks.

Kyren Williams Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

No one had any idea how well Williams would play this season. The second-year running back had a limited role as a rookie but has become one of the league’s top runners in 2023. He has 953 rushing yards, the fourth-most in the NFL, despite missing four games with an ankle injury. Williams leads the league in rushing yards per game (95.3). More importantly, the second-year running back has had at least 114 rushing yards in four of his past five games, including 150 or more twice.

Williams has had at least 21 rushing attempts in three consecutive games, averaging 118 yards per contest in those matchups. Meanwhile, the Saints’ run defense has been awful lately. Over the past four weeks, New Orleans has surrendered the most rushing yards to running backs, giving up 125.8 per game. Furthermore, they had surrendered 159.7 rushing yards per game over their previous three contests before their Week 15 matchup against an awful New York Giants offense.

Chris Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, Olave missed the team’s Week 15 win over the Giants with an ankle injury. Thankfully, head coach Dennis Allen said the star wide receiver will play Thursday night. Olave had only 28 receiving yards in the Week 14 matchup against a talented Carolina Panthers pass defense. However, he averaged 109 receiving yards per game over the previous three contests, totaling 94 or more in every matchup. Furthermore, Olave has averaged 70.6 receiving yards per game this year despite repeatedly miscommunicating with Derek Carr.

Many expected the Rams secondary to struggle after trading away Jalen Ramsey during the offseason. Los Angeles has surrendered 163.9 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the 10th-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up 184.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers over the past month, the third-most in the league. More importantly, the Rams have surrendered 199 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in back-to-back games despite not facing an elite passing attack.

Cooper Kupp Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Arguably the top wide receiver in the NFL over the past three years has been Kupp. Unfortunately, the superstar has struggled with injuries in 2022 and 2023. Yet, he’s been productive when on the field. Kupp has averaged 71.9 receiving yards per game in the nine contests that he played over 27% of the snaps this season. More importantly, the superstar has been on fire the past two weeks, totaling eight receptions for at least 111 receiving yards in both contests.

Meanwhile, New Orleans has held wide receivers to 127 receiving yards per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. However, they’ve faced multiple bottom-dweller offenses this season. More importantly, Marshon Lattimore reportedly will miss his fifth consecutive game Thursday night. Despite facing three of the worst passing offenses in the league, the Saints have surrendered 69.3 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers over the past month, allowing 74 or more twice. Kupp should destroy this secondary.

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