Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 16

Week 16 of the 2023 NFL Season is here and now we’re getting down to business. Real football franchises are under the gun to clinch their playoff birth, and fantasy football teams are gearing up to make it to the big game. It hasn’t been easy, but if you’ve made it this far in your leagues, you’ve done something right. With just one more match before the final showdown to take it all, every decision you make is amplified greatly; you either make the right call and put your best lineup together, giving yourself a fighting chance to win, or you make the wrong call, and dig yourself a grave from which you might not climb out.

Knowing in what matchups to invest your starting options is no insignificant task, that’s why the Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is here to direct your attention where it belongs. It wouldn’t be a very helpful series if I just pointed you toward the marquee matchups; you’re smart enough to pay attention to those on your own. I want to highlight a game that may be overlooked but has intriguing potential. So no, I will not be talking about the Cowboys @ Dolphins or the Ravens @ 49ers. Instead, the Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is the…

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

This NFC North clash features the reigning divisional champions versus a franchise in Detroit that has never won the NFC North. The last time the Lions won the division was back in 1993, but it was the NFC Central then. Needless to say, Detroit fans are desperate for a title. With a win on Sunday, Detroit will clinch the division, so you know they’re going to be playing their hearts out. Minnesota, on the other side of the ball, needs the win to stay in the wild-card race. This conflation of desperation is certain to yield a hard-fought, hopefully high-scoring, grudge match.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff is coming off of a monster five-touchdown effort against a solid Denver defense. The knock on Goff all year, though, has been “he can’t play away from home.” While this is true to an extent, it’s my belief that Goff will rise to the occasion of the matchup and put together another one of his solid performances. He’s not going to come out and win you the week with a 50-point effort, but he should toss the football for around 250 yards and a few touchdowns, keeping his weapons relevant and valuable. Goff himself is a mid-range QB1 who I’d play over Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love.

In Minnesota, the Joshua Dobbs experience has run its course, and now Nick Mullens is the glue trying to keep his franchise and their playoff hopes together. Last week, in his only start on the year, Mullens was surprisingly not terrible. He threw 33 times for a 26-303-2 line with two interceptions. As far as serviceable streaming options, you can’t ask for more. As a fantasy manager of the Vikings’ skill players, he’s an upgrade over Dobbs. At home, I like Mullens and the Vikings to make a game of this as they try to keep pace in the NFC Wildcard. He’s a high-end QB2 for fantasy this week.

Running Backs

Detroit boasts one of the best running back duos in the league with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.  This combination of power running with agility and speed enables Dan Campbell to be creative and effective with his schemes. Montgomery has been a touchdown machine all year but has failed to reach paydirt in his last two games. This week, both Montgomery and Gibbs have to run into the teeth of Minnesota’s stout front, coming in as the 3rd-toughest matchup against RBs. I’d still play Montgomery as a backend RB2 based on volume, but if he doesn’t fall into the endzone, you might end up disappointed in his output.

Gibbs, on the other hand, has been on fire of late and should keep his efficient ways going despite the tough matchup. Whatever Gibbs cannot accomplish on the ground, Campbell is sure to have him make up through the air. Gibbs’ quickness and playmaking ability are precisely why Detroit drafted him with the 12th overall pick in this year’s draft, and we’re seeing it more and more as the season goes on. I like Gibbs as an RB1 in this matchup, and I’d play him over Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, and Derrick Henry.

Minnesota has their own running back duo, but they’re not nearly as flashy as the Lions’ backfield. Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler have split work in the past, but with Mattison questionable at best for Sunday due to an ankle injury (he missed Wednesday’s practice too), Chandler could be in line for a hefty workload. What that translates to against Detroit’s 5th-stingiest rush defense is anyone’s guess, but the fact he could potentially dominate touches and targets again makes him very fantasy-friendly. Chandler is in play regardless of Mattison’s status.

Coach Kevin O’Connell  even went so far as to say “Ty is going to be a guy we’re trying to get the ball to a lot, both in the run and the pass.” This vote of confidence amid Mattison’s recovery is very encouraging, making it quite clear that Mattison is out of fantasy lineups even if he is active, and Chandler is in play no matter what. I like Chandler as an RB2, one I’d play over Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Detroit’s Montgomery.

Wide Receivers

Detroit

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the main show in town in Detroit. He has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league, only having one game under double-digit points in half-PPR scoring (Week 14). The Vikings’ biggest vulnerability is in the secondary which means that St. Brown shouldn’t have any problems replicating his high-floor production this week. With a division title on the line, look for the Lions and Goff to target St. Brown early and often to loosen up the ground game. Start your WR1 stud with confidence.

The scraps to be had in Detroit’s wide receiver room will be fought over between Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Jameson Williams. There was a point in the season where Reynolds was a decent flex play, but that time has come and gone. Raymond has never been a volume play, and with the slow emergence of Williams, Raymond can confidently be left on waivers and deep league benches.

Williams is the only other Lions receiver to garner consideration for starting fantasy lineups, but only in the most desperate of situations. He is a boom-or-bust type of player, so you just have to take your shot (or not) if you think this is a week he catches a bomb. If he doesn’t, you lost that position.  A stat in Williams’ favor is that he received seven targets a week ago, the most in any game of his 2023 campaign. His involvement is increasing in the offense, but he still won’t overtake St. Brown or Sam LaPorta in targets or receptions. Start Williams with caution and Pepto Bismol.

Minnesota

It’s been a long time since Justin Jefferson was Justin Jefferson, but I think we’re as close as we’re going to get with Mullens under center. Mullens targeted Jefferson 10 times last week, enabling him to catch seven passes for 84 yards. This week, Jefferson faces the Lions’ 7th-softest defense against wide receivers, so there’s nothing about the matchup that should give you any pause. Jefferson might not put up league-winning numbers like he could with Kirk Cousins, but you’re not going to sit your top-3 draft pick. Fire him up and cross your fingers Mullens plays well.

Jordan Addison was the primary beneficiary of the Mullens sweepstakes. While it was nice to see Jefferson get back into game shape, Addison capitalized on Jefferson’s presence with 6-111-2 against Cincinnati. Every week won’t play out in this fashion, but it’s clear that Addison does better with Jefferson taking over the alpha role in the offense. With Jefferson a week further removed from his chest and hamstring injuries, both receivers should be plenty involved and active in this matchup. Addison is very much in play for the fantasy semifinals as a WR2/Flex play. I’d start Addison over Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, and Terry McLaurin.

With Minnesota’s primary weapons fully healthy, K.J. Osborn is not a startable asset, not even in DFS. Move along.

Tight Ends

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a rookie tight end come into the NFL and have as big of an impact (for both fantasy and the NFL) as Sam LaPorta has in his first season in the league. He is currently the number one tight-end in half-PPR formats, and if he can close out the regular season in this position, he will have solidified himself in the elite category. Minnesota is middle-of-the-road when it comes to defending tight ends (13th). When you have elite talent in a not-terrible matchup, I expect LaPorta to keep his strong season alive. Lock LaPorta into your lineup and watch the sparks fly.

With LaPorta on one side and T.J. Hockenson on the other, this game ought to be called, “The Tight End Tussle.” If LaPorta wasn’t enough to satiate your TE appetite, then Hockenson should quell that desire. Hockenson has been right up there all year with LaPorta and the other great TE options. Detroit is somewhat generous with points given up to tight ends (12th overall), and Hockenson is a key cog in this passing attack. I like Hockenson to add to his modest five touchdowns on the year, making him a great play in the final week before the championships. Start him with confidence.

With so much on the line for both real and fantasy purposes, preparation has never been so important. The semifinals are no time to get complacent and lazy, and if you’ve read this far, then count yourself detached from that crowd. Every little nugget of analysis helps inform your decisions, and it’s those slight edges that could make all the difference in the world. If you’re looking for more tidbits and edges, head over to fffaceoff.com for our rankings, start/sits, and tools to help usher you into the big game. It also helps to follow us @fffaceoff, and me @WSFilosofee on X, Facebook, and Instagram. Good luck and high scoring!

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