Fantasy Football Outlook
If you had Russell Wilson turning into David Carr on your 2022 Fantasy Football Bingo card, congratulations. You hit the jackpot.
Wilson had the worst statistical season of his career in 2022. It looked every bit as bad watching Broncos’ games in primetime.
Former Saints coach Sean Payton has been tapped to help Wilson return to form. Could that mean it’s finally time to “Let Russ Cook?” Or is Wilson cooked?
Let’s plug our noses, dive head first into the septic tank that was Wilson’s 2022, and see what’s on tap for his 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Former coach Nathaniel Hackett got most of the blame for Denver’s disastrous 2022. While fair, the reality is that Wilson struggled mightily in his first season in Denver.
It Was That Bad
Wilson ranked just 21st among quarterbacks in our 2022 Consistency Score. Behind the likes of Marcus Mariota.
Let that sink in for a second.
Marcus Mariota was more consistent than Russell Wilson.
Wow.
According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson ranked just 26th in Adjusted Completion percentage. Additionally, Wilson ranked only 41st among quarterbacks in Catchable Throw Percentage per Fantasy Points.
We cannot overstate how poorly Wilson played. This is undoubtedly a concern for fantasy production.
Return to Form?
Denver brought in Super Bowl-winning coach Sean Payton to turn things around. Payton was in a similar situation when he took over the Saints in 2006. He signed Drew Brees to a contract as he was coming off significant shoulder surgery.
Payton would help turn the trajectory of Brees’ career. He thrived under Payton’s tutelage. Brees delivered many memorable fantasy seasons en route to becoming a future Hall of Famer.
Payton knows how to tailor an offense to his quarterback’s strengths. There is hope he can fix whatever went wrong with Wilson in 2022.
One critical detail we need to remember. Payton was a highly coveted candidate on the open market. He could have had any open job he wanted.
Payton chose to coach Russell Wilson. That means he saw something on film that made him believe Wilson is not finished.
Wilson is currently going off draft boards as QB20 according to our up-to-date fantasy football ADP. Drafters can get him as their backup quarterback.
At this price, why not take the gamble on Wilson?
We are not relying on Wilson to be a significant contributor at his current price. If he hits, great. We found a fantasy stud in the double-digit rounds.
If he stinks again, we kick him back to waivers.
Dynasty Outlook
Wilson is under contract through 2027. The Broncos can’t realistically get out of his contract until after 2025. There is time for Wilson to become a helpful dynasty asset once again. Payton running the show does give us hope he can turn around Wilson’s career.
He is currently ranked as QB20 according to our up-to-date dynasty rankings.
What Should We Do?
I’m not going to pull punches. Russell Wilson was straight-up awful in 2022. I can point to just about any metric to back that up.
On the one hand, we have many years of Wilson being a premier fantasy quarterback. Pair that with a future Hall of Fame coach, and that should be enough to expect a 2023 return to form.
But Wilson’s 2022 just feels different compared to other down years.
I regrettably re-watched a lot of the Broncos’ offense from 2022. After my eyes were finished bleeding, I couldn’t help but think Wilson might be completely broken.
When the dynasty off-season kicked off, I was all aboard a Wilson bounceback. I moved the rookie 1.11 in a Superflex league to acquire Wilson. At the time, I felt great. Now, I’m starting to wonder if Wilson has just hit the wall.
From a strategic standpoint, the smart move is to buy low on a great player. I still believe that’s the play, but I’m not as confident as I was a couple of months ago.
I’m cautiously optimistic Wilson can return to form under Payton’s guidance. However, I have my finger next to the ejector switch just in case we see more of the same from Wilson this year.
With Sean Payton now scheming up plays, 2023 will leave zero doubt if Wilson’s 2022 was a blip.
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