Thanksgiving Football Player Prop Bets 2023

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Thanksgiving is here, meaning we have three Thursday games this week. Our early game is between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. The second matchup is between NFC East division rivals, as the Washington Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys. The final contest is between the San Francisco 49ers take on the Seattle Seahawks in a critical NFC West matchup.

Typically, I gave my five favorite prop bets for the Thursday night game. However, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I have six prop bets this week, with one for each team playing on Thursday. Let’s dive into it!

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Jordan Love Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The former Utah State star has had an up-and-down first year as the starter. Love started the year looking like a franchise quarterback. Then, he played awful. Thankfully, the first-year starter has played well the past few weeks. More importantly, Love has averaged 233.1 passing yards per game this season, totaling 228 or more in 70% of the contests. Furthermore, he has had at least 228 passing yards in four consecutive games. Love has been impressive over the past three weeks.

He has averaged 279.7 passing yards per game over the past three weeks, totaling 289 or more in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Lions have an elite run defense but have struggled in the passing game. They have surrendered 242.9 passing yards per game this year, giving up 246 or more yards to quarterbacks in half of their contests. Furthermore, Detroit has allowed quarterbacks to total 323 or more passing yards in two of their past four matchups.

David Montgomery to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)

Montgomery has been unstoppable at finding the end zone this season. The veteran running back has eight rushing touchdowns, the fifth-most in the NFL, despite missing three games. Furthermore, he has scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but one contest. That one contest was the Week 6 matchup, where Montgomery left early after playing only 26% of the snaps with an injury. More importantly, the veteran has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks despite Jahmyr Gibbs getting more snaps than him.

Meanwhile, the Packers have struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone. They have surrendered eight rushing touchdowns to the position, the seventh-most in the NFL. Green Bay has given up multiple rushing touchdowns to running backs twice this year, including three to Montgomery in the Week 4 matchup. However, bettors should take a more aggressive approach with this game and do a same-game parlay of Montgomery and Gibbs to score an anytime touchdown (+182). Both running backs have at least one rushing touchdown in both games since the bye in Week 9.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week, Antonio Gibson didn’t play because of a toe injury. With a quick turnaround from Sunday to Thursday, the former Memphis star might not play or at least won’t be near 100% for the matchup against the Cowboys. Regardless, Robinson’s rushing total is too low. The second-year player has averaged 50.7 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 45 or more in 63.6% of the contests. Furthermore, Robinson has averaged 58 rushing yards per game over the past month despite facing multiple talented run defenses.

Dallas has had a solid run defense all year. They have surrendered 745 rushing yards to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. However, the Cowboys have struggled lately. Last week, they gave up 107 rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers backfield. Furthermore, running backs have averaged 81.3 rushing yards per game against Dallas since their Week 7 bye, totaling 70 or more in every contest. Robinson could hit the over on this prop bet before the end of the third quarter.

Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)

After starting the year averaging one passing touchdown per game over the first six weeks, Prescott has been on fire since the bye week. Over the past four weeks, the star quarterback has averaged 3.3 passing touchdowns per game, totaling at least two in every contest. Furthermore, the veteran had at least three passing touchdowns in three of those games. Meanwhile, Prescott has averaged 1.9 passing touchdowns per game this year despite having one or fewer in all but one game before the team’s bye.

If anyone should be thankful on Thanksgiving, it’s Prescott. The veteran quarterback couldn’t have asked for a better matchup. The Commanders have given up 24 passing touchdowns this season, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have surrendered 2.4 passing touchdowns per game since Week 1, allowing two more in 80% of those matchups. Washington has given up three or more passing touchdowns in more games this year (four) than games with fewer than two (three).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Christian McCaffrey to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-200)

Unfortunately, McCaffrey didn’t find the end zone in the blowout Week 10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, snapping his touchdown streak. However, the superstar started a new one last week, scoring once in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. More importantly, the future Hall of Famer has 14 scrimmage touchdowns in 2023, the most in the NFL. He has found the end zone in all but one game, doing it on the ground (nine touchdowns) and in the passing game (five touchdowns) this season.

Furthermore, the superstar had a rushing touchdown in his lone matchup against the Seahawks last year. More importantly, Seattle has surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs in 2023, the fifth-most in the NFL. They have significantly struggled over the past month, allowing running backs to score five rushing touchdowns against them. The Seahawks have given up three rushing touchdowns in a game to running backs twice this year. McCaffrey to score twice (+240) and thrice (+900) are also an appealing bets.

Zach Charbonnet Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Seahawks likely won’t have Kenneth Walker this week because of an oblique injury. That means Charbonnet will be the starter for the Thanksgiving matchup against the 49ers. While many are excited to see what the rookie can do as the starter, don’t expect him to have a featured workload. DeeJay Dallas and Kenny McIntosh will rotate in with the former UCLA star. Furthermore, Charbonnet has averaged 29 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 53 or fewer in every contest.

More importantly, Walker left last week’s game after playing only seven snaps. Yet, the rookie had only 47 rushing yards despite playing 85% of the snaps and having 15 attempts. Meanwhile, the 49ers have held running backs to the second-fewest rushing yards this year, giving up only 60.1 per game. They have surrendered fewer than 56 rushing yards to running backs in 80% of the contest, including two straight. Even with Walker out of the lineup, I’m not expecting much from Charbonnet.

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