Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bears vs. Commanders

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. Additionally, we have 5 teams on bye this week. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Washington Commanders. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/5/23

Brian Robinson Jr. to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)

The Commanders’ running backs unit was a popular preseason topic for fantasy football players. However, Robinson has become the lead running back in Washington. He leads the team in total touchdowns this season (four). The former Alabama star scored last week against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense and had a goal-line fumble recovered by Terry McLaurin for a touchdown. More importantly, the second-year running back is ninth in the NFL with three rushing touchdowns, accounting for 100% of the team’s backfield touchdown production.

After nearly scoring twice against the Eagles in Week 4, Robinson has an excellent matchup against an awful Bears run defense. Chicago has surrendered four rushing touchdowns to running backs, the sixth-most in the NFL. They have also given up four receiving touchdowns to running backs, the most in the league. Overall, the Bears have allowed running backs to score the second-most touchdowns this season, only behind the Denver Broncos. Robinson has scored in all but one game this year. He will find the end zone at least once tonight.

Justin Fields Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Will the real Justin Fields please stand up? The former Ohio State star is coming off the best performance in his career, totaling 335 passing yards and four touchdowns. It was the first 300-yard passing performance of his career. By comparison, he had 526 passing yards over the first three games. Yet, Fields has been solid outside of last week’s performance. He has averaged 215.3 passing yards per game this season, totaling at least 211 yards in all but one contest.

Furthermore, the third-year quarterback has averaged 254 passing yards per game this year outside of the matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Commanders have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks. They have given up 244.3 passing yards per game this season. Furthermore, Washington has surrendered 281.7 passing yards per game since facing Joshua Dobbs in Week 1, giving up over 300 yards twice, including last week. Fields won’t have another 300-yard performance but should have no trouble reaching 200 yards.

Logan Thomas Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Everyone talked about how Eric Bieniemy would use Washington’s two star wide receivers during the offseason. However, Thomas has accounted for 13.4% of the team’s receiving yards this season, behind Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel but ahead of Jahan Dotson. The veteran tight end is averaging 42.4 receiving yards per game if you adjust for him missing the second half of the Week 2 matchup with a concussion. He has at least 41 receiving yards in all but one game this season – the Week 2 matchup against the Broncos.

Meanwhile, the Bears have been solid at containing opposing tight ends. They have surrendered 44.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. However, that number improves to 53 receiving yards per game if you remove last week’s matchup against Denver. The Broncos are missing Greg Dulcich, and the backups combined for only 18 receiving yards on four targets. Samuel and Dotson will play this week despite dealing with minor injuries. Don’t be surprised if that leads to a few extra targets for Thomas.

DJ Moore Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While Moore was one of the more popular breakout candidates this offseason, the veteran receiver hasn’t had a great start to the 2023 season. However, Chicago’s offense was on fire last week. According to Fantasy Points Data, Moore ranks 12th in the NFL in first-read throws (33.8%). The next closest Bear is Cole Kmet (18.3%). Furthermore, the former Maryland star has a 91.7% catchable target rate, the highest on the team.

More importantly, Moore has accounted for 35% of the team’s receiving yards. According to Fantasy Points Data, that is the 11th-highest mark in the NFL. By comparison, Kmet is the next closest Beat at 22%. Meanwhile, the Commanders got obliterated by A.J. Brown, surrendering 175 receiving yards, the most in Week 4. The superstar receiver had several big plays downfield. While he won’t have 175 receiving yards, Moore could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.

Chase Young Over 0.25 Sacks (+110)

Fans have wanted to see Young perform like the guy who won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 for the past few years. Thankfully, the former Ohio State star looks healthy and determined to reassert himself as one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. After missing Week 1, Young has been a force the past three weeks, totaling 2.5 sacks, including one last week against a talented Eagles offensive line. He leads the team in sacks per game (0.83).

The Bears’ offense looked better last week against the Broncos. However, their offensive line remains a massive problem. Chicago has given up the third-most sacks this season. Fields has gotten sacked at least three times in every contest, including four or more in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Commanders have an impressive pass-rush unit. They have 13 sacks this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. I can’t explain why Young to register half a sack is plus money. He could easily sack Fields on the first drive of the game.

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