Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Lions vs. Packers

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 3 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 9/23/23

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

After having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers under center for the past 34 years, the Packers appear to have found their next superstar quarterback. Love has been outstanding over the first three games this season, throwing seven passing touchdowns. Furthermore, he had three passing touchdowns in Week 1 and Week 2. Last week, the former Utah State star had one passing touchdown and a goal-line rushing score. However, Love was facing a talented New Orleans Saints defense. Thankfully, that won’t be the case against the Lions.

Detroit made multiple additions to their defense during the offseason, spending money in free agency and draft capital. However, injuries have led to the unit struggling over the first three weeks. The Lions didn’t give up a touchdown last week but faced a dysfunctional Atlanta Falcons passing attack. Yet, they surrendered two passing touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 without Travis Kelce and two scores to Geno Smith in Week 2. If Christian Watson and Aaron Jones play in this contest, Love could have his third three-touchdown performance of his short career.

Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

When the Lions traded away Matthew Stafford, many argued that Goff got thrown into the deal for salary cap purposes. Yet, the team swore they wanted the former No. 1 overall pick. The veteran quarterback has played well since joining the Lions, averaging 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. However, he has struggled on the road. In 15 career road games with Detroit, Goff has averaged only 0.87 passing touchdowns per game, throwing one or fewer in 80% of those contests.

Furthermore, the veteran quarterback has six passing touchdowns in four career matchups against the Packers as a member of the Lions. However, he averaged only one passing touchdown per game in the two matchups in Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers have done well at slowing down opposing passing attacks this season, giving up only three passing touchdowns and a 2.9% TD rate to quarterbacks. Goff’s touchdown upside is further limited if David Montgomery plays this week, giving the Lions a rushing option at the goal line.

Dontayvion Wicks Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (+105)

Bettors should wait until about 90 minutes before kickoff before placing this bet. Christian Watson hasn’t played this season because of a hamstring injury. The second-year receiver says the plan is to play this week. However, the Packers listed Watson as questionable on the final injury report. Bettors should feel less confident in this bet if the former North Dakota State star plays. Yet, this bet is arguably free money if Watson misses his fourth consecutive game.

Wicks has consistently been the No. 3 wide receiver with Watson out of the lineup. The former Virginia star has averaged three receptions on five targets for 42.5 receiving yards over the past two weeks, totaling over 40 yards in both matchups. More importantly, the rookie receiver will face off against Jerry Jacobs. The third-year cornerback has struggled in coverage this season, allowing receivers to catch 71.4% of the targets thrown his way for an average of nine yards per reception. If Watson can’t play, Wicks should hit the over on his prop bet by halftime.

Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

The 2023 tight end draft class has gotten off to a fast start. LaPorta has already become the clear-cut No. 2 pass catcher on offense behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. The former Iowa star has averaged six receptions on 7.3 targets for 62 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, he is coming off the best game in his career, totaling eight receptions on 11 targets for 84 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. The rookie tight end has an appealing matchup against the division rivals.

Green Bay has been solid defending tight ends this season. They have surrendered five receptions for 45 receiving yards per game to the position. However, the Packers have given up over 4.5 receptions twice despite facing three limited passing attacks. More importantly, LaPorta plays more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. He has played over a third of his snaps lined up out wide. After his strong performance last week, Jared Goff should frequently look the rookie’s way in this matchup.

Luke Musgrave Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

While Sam LaPorta has been the top rookie tight end this season, Musgrave is catching up to him. The former Oregon State star has become a significant part of the offense. He leads the team in receptions (11), is third in targets (15), and third in receiving yards (124). More importantly, the rookie shined last week despite facing a New Orleans defense that historically limits tight ends. Musgrave had six receptions on eight targets for 49 receiving yards in the win, leading the team in receptions.

Meanwhile, the Lions have struggled to slow down opposing tight ends. They have surrendered 10.5 yards per reception and 84.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Furthermore, Detroit has given up the most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL, nearly 65 more than the next closest team. While Christian Watson’s potential season debut might impact the rookie’s target share, Musgrave will still have a meaningful role in the offense and have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

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