Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Panthers vs. Bears

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 9 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Chicago Bears. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Tyson Bagent Over 187.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, Justin Fields won’t return this week, meaning Bagent will make his fourth consecutive start. The undrafted rookie has played well as the starter, averaging 204.7 passing yards per game. He had at least 162 in every game, including 220 or more in back-to-back contests. Last week, Bagent had four ugly turnovers. Yet, he had 30 pass attempts and 220 passing yards against a talented New Orleans Saints defense. This week, the rookie has a more appealing matchup.

Carolina won’t have star pass rusher Brian Burns this week because of a concussion. While Carolina has surrendered the third-fewest passing yards in 2023, they haven’t faced teams that need to throw the ball lately. Over the past two weeks, opposing quarterbacks have had fewer than 27 pass attempts in both contests. That won’t be the case for Bagent. With D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet at his disposal, expect the rookie to keep his streak of 200 or more passing yards alive.

Bryce Young Under 0.5 Interceptions (+114)

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with turnovers, especially interceptions. Last week, Young had the worst performance of his career, throwing three interceptions against the Indianapolis Colts. However, the former Alabama star has done well protecting the ball most of the year. Young has thrown zero interceptions in over half the games this season, including two straight before last week. More importantly, the Bears have struggled to force turnovers this year.

The Bears have forced six interceptions, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. However, they haven’t forced an interception over the past two weeks. Furthermore, half of their forced interceptions this year came in Week 7 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Brian Hoyer had two in that contest before getting benched for Aidan O’Connell, who also had an interception on only 13 pass attempts. After struggling last week against the Colts, expect Young to have a solid bounce-back performance.

D.J. Moore Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

It’s a revenge game for Moore, and I can guarantee he’s circled this matchup on his calendar. The star wide receiver has averaged 81.7 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 51 or more in all but one game since Week 4. He has averaged 63.1 receiving yards per game outside of the massive 230-yard performance against the Washington Commanders. More importantly, the former Maryland star has proven that he is quarterback-proof, making bettors confident in him despite Tyson Bagent getting the start.

Moore averaged 97 receiving yards per game with Justin Fields starting. Yet, he has also averaged 51 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks with the rookie quarterback, totaling 54 or more twice. Meanwhile, the Panthers have given up 133.1 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year. Between the lack of weapons and the revenge game narrative, I also like Moore to have 70 or more receiving yards on the alternate line at +200.

Adam Thielen Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Thielen let bettors down. He had only 29 receiving yards on five receptions and six targets. However, the veteran had been on fire before that game. Over the previous five contests, Thielen averaged 11.8 targets and 103 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 72 in every matchup. According to Fantasy Points Data, the veteran has accounted for 35% of the team’s receiving yards, 20.7% more than any other player.

Meanwhile, the Bears have done well at slowing down wide receivers this year. They have held wide receivers to 146.7 receiving yards per game, ranking around the league average. However, Chicago has primarily played Cover-3 this season, using the coverage on 35.4% of his defensive dropbacks (per Fantasy Points Data). Thielen has been outstanding against Cover-3, seeing a 24% target per route run rate and a 31.8% receiving yards market share. After struggling last week, the veteran will bounce back against the Bears.

Cole Kmet Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While D.J. Moore is the focal point of Chicago’s passing attack, Kmet has become the clear-cut No. 2 option. The veteran tight end has averaged 41.6 receiving yards per game this season, a career-high. He averaged 40 receiving yards per game with Justin Fields under center. However, Kmet has been even better with Tyson Bagent. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 44.7 receiving yards per game with the rookie quarterback starting, despite seeing zero targets in Week 7.

Yet, the veteran has had 55 or more receiving yards in two consecutive games. More importantly, he has a 29.6% receiving yards market share and a 29% target per route run rate over the past two weeks, leading the team among qualifying players in both categories (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled when opposing teams actually throw to their tight ends. In the three games where opposing tight ends had at least three receptions, they’ve averaged 58 receiving yards per game against Carolina.

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