TJ Hockenson: Fantasy Football Outlook and Upside

Welcome to Day 2 of my series ‘A Player a Day Keeps the Doctor Away’ featuring TJ Hockenson. Each day I will be highlighting a player ranked outside the top 20 in ADP at their respective positions, with league-winning potential. In case you missed it, yesterday’s article was on the Jaguars star running back, Travis Etienne Jr. Let’s get into Hockenson and break down his outlook for the upcoming 2023 fantasy football season. 

The Good: A Perfect Storm 

Last year, then Detroit Lions tight end Hockenson was traded in week seven to the Minnesota Vikings. According to FantasyPros, between Weeks 8 and 17, he was first in targets for all tight ends. Additionally, during that same span, he led all tight ends in receptions. Overall, Hockenson benefited tremendously from head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system. Not to mention, playing alongside Justin Jefferson, Thielen, and the rest of the Minnesota weapons. 

Kevin O’Connell’s system is extremely pass-heavy and will provide plenty of opportunities for all of the pass catchers to eat in this offense. According to TeamTankings.com, The Minnesota Vikings had the third-highest passing percentage of all 32 NFL teams at 63.4%. In the first year of play calling for the Vikings, O’Connell had four players receive over 80+ targets with two going over 100+. In fact, Hockenson did not receive less than six targets until the final game of the season. The team moving off of All-Pro running back Dalvin Cook might be foreshadowing that this team is going to commit to the pass even more than they did last year. 

The Bad: Too Many Mouths to Feed

It appears the Vikings are going to make a bigger commitment to the passing game this year. Meanwhile, Hockenson truthers are raving about another year in the offense. The question is, can Hockenson provide a weekly floor alongside the other Vikings’ weapons to be a good return on his ADP?

Right now, he is going to cost a third or fourth-round pick in your fantasy football drafts. Can he really keep pace with Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews? All while fighting for targets with the best wide receiver in football? Not to mention, K.J. Osborn and new rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison are still in this offense as well. Keep in mind, Addison won the Fred Biletnikoff Award for being the best wide receiver in college football two years ago. Any Hockenson truther should be very concerned about Addison coming in and rising up to the #2 target on this offense. 

Last year, tight end Irv Smith Jr. suffered his season-ending injury. After that, it took less than a week for the team to trade for Hockenson. Needless to say, O’Connell values the tight end position in his offense and he clearly had plans for Hockenson once they brought him in. As those stats say above, after he was traded to the Vikings, Hockenson became a vital part of that offense. 

Furthermore, his advanced metrics make me a bigger fan of the tight end. According to PlayerpPofiler, Hockenson had the fifth-highest target share of all tight ends at 20.5%. He also ran the second-most routes of any tight end. Additionally, he had the third most air yards of all tight ends. He did this all by playing about 84% of snaps and participating in 82% of the routes run. I found it hard writing something negative about Hockenson because as soon as the Vikings traded for him, he became a massive part of their offense. So why would that not continue this year? If he can maintain a six target minimum playing alongside the personnel of the 2022 Vikings, why would a rookie in Addison flip the script?

Trending Now

Drafting From the 1.01

Best Ways to Determine Your Fantasy Football Draft Order

2024 NFL Draft

2023 Best Ball Rankings

Fantasy Football Team Names

For the latest free agent news, check out the Fantasy Football News Tracker.