TNF Player Prop Bets: Eagles vs. Texans

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had a solid performance, going 3-2 on my prop bets. Tom Brady had only one passing touchdown, hitting the under despite throwing for 325 yards in the game. Meanwhile, Mike Evans had a massive performance, totaling 123 receiving yards. The over easily hit as the veteran receiver nearly doubled his receiving yards prop bet total. However, Lamar Jackson had a quiet performance on the ground, rushing for only 43 yards despite the Baltimore Ravens totaling 231 rushing yards as a team. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

For the Thursday Night Football game this week we have a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for tonight’s game between the Eagles and Texans.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Davis Mills Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The second-year quarterback has struggled this season, averaging 214.6 passing yards per game. Mills has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in two of his past three games. Furthermore, the young quarterback had an excellent matchup last week against the Tennessee Titans, one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Yet, Mills had only 152 passing yards on 29 pass attempts. More importantly, the former Stanford starter has totaled fewer than 180 passing yards in nearly half the games this season.

Not only has the young quarterback struggled this season, but he is about to face his toughest opponent of the year tonight. The Eagles arguably have the best defense in football. Their secondary is led by the talented cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Meanwhile, they added Robert Quinn last week, improving an already elite pass-rush unit. More importantly, Philadelphia has given up the fewest passing yards this season, surrendering only 206.1 yards per game. Expect a limited performance from the young quarterback.

Jalen Hurts Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-125)

While the Texans don’t have a franchise-caliber quarterback, the Eagles have one of the best in the NFL on their roster. Hurts has taken a massive step forward in his development this season, averaging 257 passing yards per game. Last year he averaged only 209.6 passing yards per game by comparison. More importantly, Hurts has thrown for 285 or more passing yards in nearly half the games this season while throwing for at least 239 passing yards in all but two games.

Defensively, the Texans have played well on paper. They have surrendered only 1,599 passing yards this season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. While Houston has held quarterbacks to 228.4 passing yards per game in 2022, they haven’t faced many elite passers. Last week, Malik Willis had only 10 pass attempts for 55 yards in his first career start. Meanwhile, Justin Fields had only 17 pass attempts for 106 yards against the Texans in Week 3. In their other five games this season, Houston has surrendered 287.6 passing yards per game, giving up at least 340 yards in 40% of those games. After his 285-yard performance last week, Hurts should have no trouble picking apart Houston’s secondary.

Dameon Pierce Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Houston’s offense has been disappointing this season, but the one bright spot has been rookie running back, Dameon Pierce. The rookie is averaging 77 rushing yards per game this year. However, he has averaged 84.3 rushing yards per game since Week 1, totaling at least 69 rushing yards in all but one game. More importantly, the Texans have made Pierce a focal point of their offense. The former Florida star has gotten at least 14 rushing attempts in every game since Week 1, seeing 20 or more in half of the contests.

On paper, the Eagles have a talented front four. They have held running backs to 606 rushing yards this season, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. However, their run defense has struggled lately. Opposing running backs have averaged 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and 98.7 rushing yards per game against the Eagles over the past three games. Furthermore, the Eagles have surrendered 125 or more rushing yards to running backs twice this season. More importantly, star rookie run-stuffing defense tackle Jordan Davis will miss tonight’s game. Pierce won’t run wild in this game but should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

Miles Sanders Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last year Sanders struggled. Not only did he fail to find the end zone the entire season, but Sanders also had a career-low 754 rushing yards. However, the former Penn State star has stayed healthy this season and has put together the best year of his career. Sanders is averaging 80.4 rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest average in the NFL. His rushing average is higher than several superstar running backs, including Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. More importantly, the young running back has at least 78 rushing yards in all but two games this season.

Meanwhile, Houston’s run defense has been an embarrassment this season. Last week they surrendered 302 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard. While Henry tore apart the Texans’ defense like he typically does, Hilliard had 83 yards on only eight rushing attempts. Furthermore, Houston surrendered 135.5 rushing yards per game to running backs before last week’s awful performance. More importantly, running backs have rushed for at least 86 yards in every game this season against the Texans, rushing for 100 or more in all but one contest. Sanders is more likely to run for 200 yards tonight than under 80.

Davis Mills Over 0.5 Interceptions (-190)

After his solid finish to close out last season, some thought Mills would be the Texans’ quarterback of the future. However, his play this season has proved that Mills isn’t the long-term guy. He has six interceptions this season, the fifth-most in the NFL. By comparison, Mills has only eight passing touchdowns. Mills has fewer touchdown passes than Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz despite playing one more game than the veterans. More importantly, the young quarterback has struggled lately. Mills has thrown at least one interception in four of the past five games, including two interceptions twice.

Philadelphia has one of the best secondaries in the league, led by their two star cornerbacks. However, safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson leads the NFL with four interceptions, totaling three in the past two games. More importantly, the Eagles have the second-most forced interceptions this season with 10. They have at least one interception in all but one game. Furthermore, the Eagles have two or more interceptions in two games this year. With Nico Collins out and Brandin Cooks’ future in question, Mills might be without his top two weapons for tonight’s game. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles have at least one interception before halftime.

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